Greater instability and military coercion by China coming, intel chief Haines tells lawmakers

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China’s leaders are planning for greater instability in relations with the United States and Chinese military forces are expected to continue aggressive actions in the Asia Pacific region, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told a Senate hearing on Thursday.

Ms. Haines also warned that Chinese backing of Russia’s defense base is tipping the war in Ukraine in Moscow’s favor, and that China and Russia have pre-positioned malicious software in critical U.S. infrastructure as part of planning for future sabotage.

Testimony by the DNI at the Senate Armed Services Committee came during the unclassified portion of the panel’s annual threat briefing. The administration’s top officials also released intelligence assessments regarding Iranian activities and support for Hamas and other proxy groups now engaged in a war with Israel.

Sen. Roger Wicker, Mississippi Republican, and the committee ranking member said the current national security environment includes multiple dangers.

“Armed conflict is raging in multiple theaters. Regional instability is on the rise. Violent Islamic terrorism is expanding. Several of our principal adversaries are deepening their cooperation, forming a new axis of evil and striving to reshape the geopolitical order,” Mr. Wicker said. “… The decisions we make this year will have far-reaching implications for our national security.”

Testifying with Ms. Haines, Air Force Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said a major concern for his agency is the growing collaboration among U.S. adversaries such as China, Russia and Iran.

“There are a growing number of adversaries who are interacting and partnering in ways and toward ends that we have not seen before,” Gen. Kruse said. “Historical friction points are no longer governing their relationships.”

Ms. Haines said that Chinese President Xi Jinping and other leaders are set for more instability in their lives in the United States. They “continue to believe that the United States is committed to containing China’s rise and undermining the [Communist] Party’s rule,” she said.

However, Beijing’s main priority is patching up a floundering economy and therefore Mr. Xi will tread carefully in ties with the United States, she said.

The Biden administration has been seeking closer relations with China despite troubling actions that include militarily coercion in the region, growing support for the Russian war in Ukraine and cyberattacks globally.

China is increasing economic retaliation against the United States in response to U.S. national security curbs on exports, such as advanced computer chips. But China may limit its economic counterattacks to avoid the costs they will inflict on its economy, Ms. Haines said. Foreign direct investment in China sharply declined by more than 77% in 2023, she noted.

Despite the domestic economic problems, China is continuing to advance regional global objectives that include replacing the United States as the world’s sole superpower.

“Beijing will continue to use its military forces to intimidate its neighbors and to shape the region’s actions in accordance with the PRC priorities,” Ms. Haines said, using the acronym for People’s Republic of China.

“Most obviously, in relation to Taiwan as the PRC presses for unification.”

Planning overhaul

Gen. Kruse said the Pentagon is reworking its joint force military planning for a potential conflict over Taiwan based on increasing Chinese and Russian military cooperation.

“Even if Russia and China as a military force are not interoperable, they would certainly be cooperative. And we would need to take that into account in force structure and planning,” he said.

Chinese and Russian military forces have conducted joint naval and nuclear activities in recent years.

China’s military also is expected to deploy more advanced weapons systems and new technologies while building more effective joint military capabilities, Ms. Haines said.

The PLA is also strengthening nuclear forces and cyber warfare capabilities while working to divide the United States from its allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

On China’s deepening ties to Russia, Ms. Haines said Chinese military know-how is turning the war in Ukraine in Moscow’s favor.

“China’s provision of dual-use components and material to Russia’s defense industry is one of several factors that tilted the momentum on the battlefield in Ukraine in Moscow’s favor while also accelerating a reconstitution of Russia’s military strength after their extraordinarily costly invasion,” Ms. Haines said.

The State Department on Wednesday announced sanctions on several Chinese companies for supplying defense-related goods to Russia. The companies provided Russian defense industry with electronic components, aircraft weapons control radar, thermal imaging gear and aircraft engines that can be used by the military, the department said.

Nicholas Burns, the U.S. ambassador to China, said of the sanctions on X that “we said we would act if China did not stop these sales.”

Struggling in Ukraine and the Middle East

On the Ukraine war, Ms. Haines said the Russian military is making some progress on the battlefield and could achieve breakthroughs on the front lines near Donetsk and Kharkiv.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is using increasingly aggressive tactics in Ukraine, as seen in attacks on electricity infrastructure. The goal is to show Ukrainians that continuing to fight will increase damage to the country and offer no path to victory.

Critical infrastructure attacks against Ukraine are aimed at slowing Ukrainian military forces’ actions and pressuring the Kyiv government.

“These aggressive tactics are likely to continue, and the war is unlikely to end anytime soon,” Ms. Haines said, adding that Russian defense spending has increased sharply despite more than 300,000 casualties and billions spent on the conflict.

On the Israel-Hamas war, Ms. Haines said the regional conflict is producing a global impact, seen in unprecedented attacks between Israel and Iran and large numbers of attacks by Iranian proxies.

Iranian militias also are planning attacks on U.S. forces in the region but are currently in a pause in such strikes, she said.

Terrorist groups al Qaeda and ISIS also have been inspired by Hamas and have directed supporters to launch attacks against Israel and U.S. interests, Ms. Haines noted.

Cyberthreats

Ms. Haines said cyberattacks and operations remain one of the most serious international threats U.S. officials face.

“We have seen a massive increase in the number of ransomware attacks globally in the last year, which went up as much as 74% in 2023,” she said, with U.S. companies most heavily targeted, including in the health care industry.

A major danger discussed during the hearing was the increase in hackers attacking U.S. industrial control systems used to automate critical infrastructure facilities.

“Many critical infrastructure sectors, including water and wastewater, food and agriculture, defense, energy and transportation rely on such systems,” Ms. Haines said.

The chances that a single attack will have a widespread impact are low. But the growing number of cyberattacks and access and manipulation by hackers of the control systems “increases the collective odds that at least one could have a more significant impact,” she said.

Private companies that own critical infrastructure are being urged to bolster security against foreign hackers.

Chinese or Russian government hackers are unlikely to conduct attacks in peacetime, Ms. Haines said.

But a major worry is the placement of sabotage software or clandestine access points that can be used during a crisis or conflict to disrupt critical infrastructure.

The Chinese and Russians are planning offensive operations through planting “footholds” in networks used to control critical infrastructure, the DNI said.

“What we see is both China and Russia effectively trying to pre-position themselves in ways that would allow them to conduct those kinds of attacks, not actually yet necessarily engaging in those attacks,” Ms. Haines said.

Sen. Angus King, Maine independent, said the United States is already in “an invisible war on cyber” with large-scale ransomware attacks, penetrations of industrial control systems and what he termed cyber “sleeper cells” inside critical infrastructure.

Ms. Haines said so far, Hamas or the Chinese government have not been working directly to foment anti-Israel protests in the United States. But U.S. intelligence agencies are watching the potential for that closely.

Ms. Haines also defended the U.S. intelligence community’s claim that there is no indication foreign adversaries are behind brain injuries experienced by U.S. diplomats and intelligence personnel abroad who believe they were targeted with some type of weapon.

Spy agencies are trying to close intelligence “gaps” about the incidents known as anomalous health incidents (AHIs) and also as Havana syndrome, after the location where they were first detected, she said. Further analysis was done following a recent “60 Minutes’” report linking Russia to the suspected brain attacks, she added.

Intelligence agencies “still have not changed their basic assessments at this point, which is essentially that some elements think it’s very unlikely, some think it’s unlikely — they have various degrees of confidence — as to whether or not a foreign actor would be is behind AHIs,” Ms. Haines said.