OPINION:
Current polls show the 2024 election is too close to call, with just a few points separating President Biden and former President Donald Trump in key battleground states. November’s election may hinge on one or two issues that could tip the balance.
One issue percolating under the radar is the remarkable success of the First Step Act, the most sweeping reform of federal criminal law in a generation. Former Rep. Doug Collins described its positive impact.
“Since this group of people earns their second chance sooner, they’re also spending fewer days and nights in taxpayers’ federal prisons, which means Americans are paying less and getting more out of their justice system. Tens of thousands of successful First Step Act beneficiaries are back at work, easing a national workforce crisis, earning a living, boosting businesses, and contributing to their communities,” the Georgia Republican said.
Opponents of the legislation predicted that those released would quickly return to a life of crime. Boy, did they get it wrong. The recidivism rate of those released through the First Step Act is just over 12% — far lower than the overall federal recidivism rate of 43%.
Those are the results that those of us who worked so hard to pass the First Step Act had intended. It reduced recidivism — and the result is safer communities. The Department of Justice examined the records of over 30,000 offenders released under the act to arrive at those numbers.
Thousands released under the First Step Act have successfully transitioned home. They are living in communities across the nation, supporting their families and being good neighbors. Their redeemed lives have brought families back together and touched the lives of thousands of people who are grateful for this law — not just the 30,000 inmates released, but also their neighbors, employers, co-workers and fellow churchgoers. That is a significant number of people who know that Mr. Trump delivered for them as president.
It was Mr. Trump at his best. He used his negotiating skills to assemble the bipartisan votes needed to pass it and was undeterred by attempts from the left and right to kill the bill. Some on the right were fearful of reforms that might allow opponents to paint them as soft on crime, while leftist criminal justice reformers wanted to let violent criminals as well as prisoners seeking to reenter society back on the street. It has not gone unnoticed among Black and Hispanic voters that Mr. Trump delivered these important reforms, whereas President Barack Obama merely paid lip service to the problem.
So, how might this affect November’s election? Polls have shown a dramatic increase in support for Trump among Black and Hispanic voters. His support among Blacks, which was only 8% in 2016, has grown to 26% in the latest Edison poll taken in late April. Among Hispanics, Mr. Trump’s share of the vote in 2016 was 29%. It now stands at 40% in the Edison poll.
The shift by minority voters to Mr. Trump has been most pronounced among men, both Black and Hispanic. A recent Wall Street Journal poll of the seven battleground states found that 30% of Black men and 47% of Hispanic men support Mr. Trump at this point. Given that Black and Hispanic men are the overwhelming majority of those given a second chance by the First Step Act, it not unreasonable to think that their gratitude might play a part in the rise in support for Mr. Trump.
In a recent interview with The New York Times, the radio host Charlamagne Tha God said that the First Step Act was one of the reasons for the increased support for Mr. Trump among Blacks, “There’s people who actually saw family members and people they love actually get out of prison.”
That this unusually high level of support for Mr. Trump among minority voters was found in each of the battleground states tells me that Mr. Trump’s leadership in pressing for the First Step Act may help tip the scales for him and put him over the top.
There may be another important impact of this shift of minority voters. Current congressional and state legislative maps were drawn assuming that the Democrats could bank on support from over 90% of Black voters and over 75% of Hispanics. If Democrats support from Blacks drops to the mid-70s and from Hispanics to the mid-40s, legislative and congressional districts in every state in the Union could become competitive.
This would be healthy for the country; competitive districts foster discussion of the issues and increase voter involvement while shoo-in districts are foregone conclusions. Incumbents usually skip debates, and challengers can’t raise money because they are viewed as having no chance.
It would be a trifecta if the Second Chance Act, which has proved so beneficial to communities, was also a deciding factor in the presidential race, and made legislative and congressional districts more competitive? We’ll find out in November.
• Pat Nolan is director emeritus of the Nolan Center for Justice at the American Conservative Union Foundation. He is a respected advocate for sensible criminal justice reforms and has been called as an expert witness in congressional and state legislative hearings. He served as a member of the seven-member National Prison Rape Elimination Commission.
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