- The Washington Times - Monday, May 13, 2024

Former President Donald Trump leads President Biden in five critical battleground states and has a double-digit advantage in two of those states, according to a series of polls released Monday.

The polls by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer revealed that Mr. Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee, is ahead among registered voters in five key states: Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

Mr. Trump also had double-digit leads in Georgia (10 points) and Nevada (12 points), the polls found, and leads by as much as seven points in Arizona and Michigan.

Mr. Biden only has a lead in one swing state, Wisconsin, the polls found. The president won all six of those states in 2020, and even winning three of them would likely be enough to secure reelection.

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received about 10% support in the surveys, and pulled support “roughly equally” from Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump, the Times reported.

Among likely voters, the race was much closer. Mr. Trump still leads in five states, with margins ranging from 13 points (Nevada) to one point (Pennsylvania), but Mr. Biden is ahead in Michigan, while trailing in Wisconsin. In both states, the difference is a mere percentage point (47% to 46%).

The findings are largely unchanged from the last series of Times/Siena College polls of battleground states in November. Since the last polls, the stock market has gained steam, and Mr. Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan and campus protests have roiled the country.

Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are essentially tied among 18-to-29-year-olds and Hispanic voters, even though each group gave Mr. Biden more than 60% of their voters in 2020, the polls revealed.

Mr. Trump also has about 20% support among Black voters, which if stands through November, would be the highest level of African-American support for a Republican presidential candidate since President Eisenhower.

Despite the good news for Mr. Trump, Mr. Biden remains in striking distance in Pennsylvania, where the former president only commands a three-point lead.

The economy and inflation remained the top issue, with more than half of voters saying the economy is “poor,” down just a single percentage point since November. Nearly 40% of those who said they intended to vote for Mr. Trump said the cost of living is the most important issue in the election, the polls found.

Abortion, however, appeared to be a vulnerability for Mr. Trump. Roughly 64% of voters in battleground states said that abortion should be always or mostly legal, including 44% of Mr. Trump’s supporters.

The poll surveyed 4,097 registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin between April 28 and May 9.

• Jeff Mordock can be reached at jmordock@washingtontimes.com.

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