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DUBAI — President Biden isn’t the only one frustrated by Israel’s inability to strike a cease-fire deal with Hamas to halt the carnage in the Gaza Strip.
Powerful Arab nations’ moves toward a game-changing relationship with Israel came to a screeching halt with the war ignited by Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist rampage through southern Israel. Like Mr. Biden, regional leaders are increasingly frustrated with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s offensive against Hamas militants as Palestinian civilian casualties mount and with what they say is Mr. Netanyahu’s failure to offer a political vision for the aftermath of the war.
Officials from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the two most influential Gulf Arab states, have lashed out against Israel’s incursion into Rafah and Mr. Netanyahu’s suggestions that the two countries would contribute to the Israeli leader’s security plans for a postwar Gaza.
“The United Arab Emirates denounces the statements of the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, about calling on the state to participate in the civil administration of the Gaza Strip, which is under Israeli occupation,” UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan wrote in a post this month on the social media platform X.
During an interview with “Dr. Phil Primetime,” Mr. Netanyahu suggested that the UAE and Saudi Arabia could play a role in the postwar governance of Palestinian territory.
“The UAE stresses that the Israeli prime minister does not have any legal capacity to take this step, and the state refuses to be drawn into any plan aimed at providing cover for the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip,” Mr. Abdullah said.
The Saudi Foreign Ministry warned against the Israel Defense Forces’ “displacement of Palestinian civilians and the lack of safe havens for them, given the massive destruction caused by the Israeli war machine.”
The criticisms reflect a reality that any diplomatic outreach to Israel has been put on ice as the plight of the Palestinians in Gaza dominates the news in the region.
Before the Israeli takeover of Gaza’s crossing point with Egypt, considered one of Hamas’ last strongholds in the Palestinian enclave, the U.S., the Emiratis and other Arab partners were working to achieve a cease-fire.
“Every time we approached an agreement, it crumbled,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political science professor at the United Arab Emirates University.
The UAE is part of a coalition with Qatar, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia to achieve a cease-fire with the Palestinian Authority. The chances of success are slim, Mr. Abdulla said, because of Mr. Netanyahu’s and Hamas military chief Yahya Sinwar’s unwillingness to consent to the truce.
Washington has tried to avert a humanitarian crisis in Gaza and keep alive prospects for a grand bargain, with Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel, signing a defense pact with the U.S. and presenting a united front against Iran and its network of allies in the region.
During meetings in Riyadh last month with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud said Gaza’s reconstruction would not begin until after a cease-fire is established and a Palestinian state plan is implemented.
Mr. al-Saud insisted that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are still in talks to create a reliable path toward Palestinian statehood. He said Arab countries would consider an Arab peacekeeping force in Gaza only as part of a more extensive political solution.
Those prerequisites are nonstarters for the Israeli prime minister, who has vowed to block the creation of an independent Palestine.
Costs and benefits
Ahmed Al-Shehri, a retired Saudi army colonel, said Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, seeks to create a Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital, based on the 1967 borders, with guaranteed access to land, sea and air borders.
“The Saudi prince and foreign minister have stated that developing a relationship with Israel will have costs. … The cost Saudi Arabia expects to pay to advance peace will depend on Israel’s commitment to creating a Palestinian state,” Col. Al-Shehri said.
The colonel’s views reflect a shift in Riyadh’s strategic thinking after the long-standing covert conflict between Israel and Iran escalated into the open last month with an Israeli airstrike that killed several members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals.
“Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel missed its targets, indicating its weak capabilities. The attack failed to achieve strategic objectives and was expected by regional states and intelligence agencies,” Col. Al-Shehri said.
Crown Prince Mohammed has reportedly given orders to his air force to intercept missiles fired from Iran. The missiles targeting Israel were flying over Saudi airspace. Experts said the intention was to maintain strong ties with the U.S. military, which is considered crucial until the crown prince secures his position as the country’s ruler to succeed his ailing father.
Mohammed’s Vision 2030 projects to modernize Saudi Arabia’s economy and culture have led to budget deficits in the kingdom’s treasury despite the country’s vast oil wealth.
Some large-scale projects, such as the planned 100-mile-long Neom “linear city,” have been canceled or scaled down.
Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud is 88. The 38-year-old crown prince has launched economic and cultural reforms popular among the younger population. Some ruling family members are uncomfortable with his ambitious projects and his shift toward a more nationalistic and less religious approach.
The crown prince has also shifted away from exclusive reliance on a U.S. security umbrella.
In March 2023, Mohammed worked with Chinese mediators who brokered a surprise resumption of diplomatic relations with Iran. Tehran and Riyadh cut ties in 2016 because of Iran’s nuclear program and support for Shiite Muslim proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
“While the Biden administration pursues normalization [with Israel] for their political interests and Netanyahu’s desire to leave a lasting legacy, the kingdom is building solid relations with Russia and China,” said Col. Al-Shehri, who sees Washington’s support for the kingdom as wavering.
Even as Gulf states pledged millions of dollars in a U.N.-led donors conference for Gaza this month, regional observers insisted they aimed to help Palestinians survive the war rather than support Israeli security plans.
“The UAE is ready to take the lead in offering any essential aid to the 2 million new Palestinian refugees who are currently displaced,” said Mr. Abdulla, the Emirati political scientist. “However, it’s important to note that our attention won’t be shifted away from the reconstruction of Gaza, which is a separate issue.”
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