China will increase spending on defense by 7.2% in 2024 as part of a large-scale military buildup as even the ruling Communist Party is dialing back expectations for economic growth.
The annual defense budget of about $231.4 billion for 2024 was disclosed in a report at the opening session of the Chinese Communist Party’s rubber-stamp parliament meeting in Beijing. U.S. intelligence analysts assess that actual defense spending for the People’s Liberation Army is much higher than the publicly released figures, estimated that combined spending for both military and internal police and security forces at more than $700 billion annually. China’s space program is also run by the PLA.
The National People’s Congress report also set a target economic growth rate of 5%, half a percentage point below last year’s target, and short of the 6% and 7% growth rate sought in prior years.
The large increase in military spending reflects Chinese President Xi Jinping’s goal of making the PLA a world-class military by 2035.
U.S. officials have said Mr. Xi wants to replace the U.S.-led international order with a Chinese communist system of governance.
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“We will provide stronger financial guarantees for efforts to modernize our national defense and the armed forces on all fronts and consolidate and enhance integrated national strategies and strategic capabilities,” Premier Li Qiang said in remarks to some 3,000 National People’s Congress delegates.
On another front, the new work report also used language on Taiwan that diverged from past formulations regarding Beijing’s policy toward the self-ruled island it claims as its own. The report repeated calls for “reunification” with Taiwan but omitted the word “peaceful” in describing efforts to bring Taipei under Beijing’s control.
While analysts of policies toward Taiwan say it was not the first time China had left out language for peaceful unification, U.S. intelligence agencies closely monitor such official pronouncements for indicators of future military action. Mr. Xi has called for the PLA to be ready for operations in the Taiwan Strait by 2027 or sooner.
The boost in military spending comes amid internal economic problems that include a real estate crisis, local government bankruptcies, and high youth unemployment.
Chinese state media sought to play down the scale of the defense spending increase. The government-affiliated Global Times called the boost “moderate and reasonable.”
“From a policy perspective, China’s national defense strategy is defensive in nature, China will not participate in an arms race with any country, and China takes a path of peaceful development, which is different from the approaches of some Western countries, particularly the U.S. that pursues global hegemony,” Global Times stated on Tuesday.
Lou Qinjian, a spokesman for the parliament, told reporters in Beijing on Monday that the steady growth in defense spending is “to meet the needs of military transformation with Chinese characteristics, and to better fulfill China’s international responsibilities and obligations as a major country.”
Mr. Lou said Chinese defense spending was “quite low” compared to U.S. military spending.
Regional tensions
Tensions remain high between China and the United States over Taiwan, Chinese aggression in the South China Sea and U.S. efforts to block technology from enhancing the PLA. The guided-missile destroyer USS John Finn on Tuesday sailed through the Taiwan Strait in what the Navy said was a demonstration of “high seas freedom of navigation.”
PLA Col. Shi Yu, a spokesman for the eastern theater command, said the U.S. was “hyping up” the warship passage. Chinese coast guard vessels on Tuesday collided with two Philippines vessels attempting to resupply a grounded Philippines naval vessel used as a base by Manila in the South China Sea. The State Department has said in the past that any attack on Philippine vessels could set in motion the U.S. defense treaty with Manila.
In Tokyo, Yoshimasa Hayashi, a spokesman for Japan’s government, said China’s military spending increases pose “the greatest strategic challenge ever to ensure the peace and stability of Japan and the international community and strengthen international order.”
By contrast, the U.S. defense budget for 2024 is $842 billion. U.S. military procurement, however, is much slower than in China, where missiles, warplanes, warships and submarines have been fielded in large numbers in recent years.
For example, China built three large-deck amphibious warships, which could be used in operations against Taiwan, in the past four years.
The Pentagon’s annual report on the Chinese military notes that defense spending increased by 7.1% in 2022 and represents 20 consecutive years of increases, making China the second-largest military spender after the United States.
Published military budgets omit “several major categories of expenditures and its actual military-related spending is significantly higher than what it states in its official budget,” the U.S. report said.
The published military budget in China does not detail many expenditures, including research and development and foreign weapons procurement. Some estimates place actual defense spending at up to 40% more than published figures, the report said and is not affected by the country’s economic challenges.
Defense spending increases have been focused on modernized training with:
• Realistic simulation and use of virtual reality,
• Accelerating improvements in logistics capabilities, defense science, and technology,
• Enhancing the military’s strategic capacities.
This includes a massive build-up of nuclear forces including up to 360 new ground-based long-range nuclear missiles in western China.
Air Force Gen. Anthony Cotton told a Senate hearing last week that the speed of the nuclear buildup was “breathtaking.”
“The bottom line is that the [Chinese Communist Party] prioritizes spending on the PLA as their No. 1 priority,” said retired Navy Capt. Jim Fanell, a former Pacific fleet intelligence director. “So, despite all the talk about the PRC’s rapid infrastructure growth (road, rail and ports), we have to remember that the CCP is engaged in a people’s war against the U.S. and its allies, and that they are preparing themselves for kinetic war.”
The announced spending figure of $231.36 billion does not include research and development or differences between Chinese and U.S. “purchasing power parity” that allows Beijing to produce more military goods at lower costs based on its authoritarian system. The spending figure also does not include funds for the People’s Armed Police (PAP) that reports to the CCP Central Military Commission and has a separate command and force structure from the PLA. The armed police are charged with internal security and riot control.
“The PLA’s budget is more likely around $700 billion, which is about power projection,” Capt. Fanell said. “The PAP covers the internal security mission, and they get an even larger share of the budget.”
China is set to launch its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian which has begun sea trials. Other key weapons systems include the J-20 stealth fighter jet, and the DF-17 hypersonic missile that can maneuver to avoid defenses.
• Bill Gertz can be reached at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.
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