March began with a win for Nikki Haley in the Republican presidential primary in the District of Columbia, but the month is all but guaranteed to end with former President Donald Trump clinching the nomination and eliminating her from the race.
Mr. Trump is set to scoop up hundreds of delegates on Tuesday when 15 states strongly favoring the former president vote in Republican primaries. Just one day earlier, the Supreme Court ruled unanimously that states cannot strip Mr. Trump’s name from ballots over claims that he engaged in an insurrection.
If predictions hold, he will end the day fewer than 200 delegates away from securing his third Republican presidential nomination. He is projected to win the vast majority of the 884 delegates up for grabs in Super Tuesday contests.
Still, Mr. Trump won’t win a spot on the November ballot this week. That means Ms. Haley could battle on until at least March 19, when contests in a handful of states will likely give Mr. Trump the primary victory.
For now, Ms. Haley has slowed Mr. Trump’s inevitable march to the nomination with her win in the D.C. primary, where she picked up 19 delegates.
Her campaign team boasted that her victory shows she has momentum ahead of Super Tuesday and beyond and is aggressively reaching out to supporters with fundraising requests.
SEE ALSO: Trump brushes off D.C. primary loss to Haley, says he ‘stayed away’ on purpose
Despite her long odds, Ms. Haley insists she is not quitting and has set up a “leadership team” of state and local Republican leaders in Georgia, which holds a primary with 59 delegates up for grabs on March 12.
On Sunday, she disavowed a Republican National Committee pledge to support Mr. Trump if he becomes the nominee.
“I think I’ll make what decision I want to make, but that’s not something I’m thinking about,” she said on “Meet the Press” on NBC. “If you talk about an endorsement, you’re talking about a loss. I don’t think like that.”
Her decision to remain in the race has sparked speculation that she is considering a third-party run, which she has dismissed.
The Republican Party nomination will quickly and dramatically fall further out of reach for Ms. Haley in the cascade of contests ahead.
Few see her win in the heavily Democratic District, which turned out only about 2,000 Republican voters, as a sign that she is about to close in on the former president.
SEE ALSO: Nikki Haley dismisses third-party run rumors ahead of Super Tuesday primaries
Most of the states on Super Tuesday will hold open primaries, which allow Democrats and independents to vote. Ms. Haley, analysts say, could pick up votes in Tennessee, Minnesota, North Carolina and other states where delegates are awarded proportionally and the threshold is lower to qualify for winning delegates.
She is not expected to win any state contests outright, which will keep her tally low and pave the way for Mr. Trump’s count to grow significantly.
“She can win some delegates, but at some point, she is going to have to start winning contests, and that doesn’t seem likely,” said Josh Putnam, founder of FHQ Strategies, a nonpartisan website specializing in primary delegate rules and presidential campaigns and elections.
Mr. Trump will not take a victory lap as quickly as aides predicted in February when they issued a memo declaring “the end is near” for Ms. Haley.
The Republican primary winner must secure 1,215 delegates. If Mr. Trump wins 90% of the delegates on Super Tuesday, his tally would be roughly 1,040.
Republican primaries in Georgia, Mississippi and Washington and caucuses in Hawaii are slated for March 12, but they are unlikely to give Mr. Trump enough delegates for the nomination as advisers had boasted.
If Mr. Trump wins every delegate on March 12, he would be a dozen or so short.
Mr. Trump will likely clinch the nomination on March 19, when five state primaries will award 350 delegates combined. Like the other contests, Mr. Trump is set to dominate.
That has not deterred Ms. Haley, who campaigned Monday in Texas. The state holds one of the biggest Super Tuesday contests, with 161 delegates at stake.
A University of Texas poll of 522 likely voters in late February showed Mr. Trump leading Ms. Haley by 58 percentage points in the state.
At a rally in Spring, Texas, Ms. Haley promoted her second-place finish in New Hampshire, where she garnered 43% of the vote. She attacked Mr. Trump’s personality, legal troubles and spending record while president. She pledged to cut spending and shrink the government, and she suggested she wouldn’t be leaving the race.
“We don’t anoint kings in America. We have elections,” Ms. Haley said. “And Texans deserve the right to vote.”
She said Mr. Trump hindered Republicans from winning the past three national elections because voters rejected his endorsed candidates. She warned that the pattern would repeat in November. She dismissed Mr. Trump’s general election lead over Mr. Biden in many polls as too close for comfort.
“How much losing do we have to do before we realize Donald Trump is the problem?” Ms. Haley said at the Texas rally.
Many have asked the same question about Ms. Haley’s campaign.
In a Fox News interview, Ms. Haley cited “internal numbers” that she declined to share but said were positive for her campaign.
“Our goal is just to be competitive,” she said.
Mr. Trump’s team predicted a “crushing” defeat for Ms. Haley on Tuesday and ridiculed her D.C. win as a victory for the “swamp.”
On social media, Mr. Trump promoted his wins over the weekend in Missouri, Idaho and Michigan, where he gained 134 delegates and Ms. Haley garnered four.
“The really big numbers will come on Super Tuesday,” he said.
• Susan Ferrechio can be reached at sferrechio@washingtontimes.com.
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