NEWS AND ANALYSIS:
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Tensions between the Philippines, a key U.S. ally, and China are reaching new levels following the latest use of water cannons by two Chinese coast guard ships against a Philippine navy boat that resulted in injuries to several sailors.
The clash in the South China Sea took place Saturday, leaving a Philippine navy-operated supply boat heavily damaged. It was the most serious incident in recent weeks involving Chinese military attempts to force Manila to back off sovereignty claims to Second Thomas Shoal, a reef where an old Philippine navy ship ran aground and Manila now uses as a military base.
China’s coast guard and navy have been stepping up actions in recent months against the Philippines and on Sunday leveled a new threat.
As for the Philippine government, it issued on Monday what officials said was the “strongest protest” to date to Beijing in the sovereignty dispute.
People’s Liberation Army Sr. Col. Wu Qian, a spokesman for the Chinese Defense Ministry, said on Sunday that China’s military would take further action unless the Philippines halted resupplying the navy ship Sierra Madre on what is known as Second Thomas Shoal.
China said its relations with the Philippines are at “a crossroads.”
Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian defended his nation’s coast guard, telling reporters the actions were “legitimate, professional and restrained.” China would “continue to take resolute measures to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests,” he said.
Video of the water cannon incident was posted online and shows a Chinese vessel firing a high-pressure stream of water at the smaller boat.
Earlier this month, the top U.S. commander in the Indo-Pacific warned that China has significantly increased “dangerous” and aggressive activities against the Philippines near the shoal. Adm. John Aquilino said in congressional testimony that the aggression is increasing the prospect of U.S. military intervention in the standoff, given the defense treaty the U.S. has with the Philippines.
China’s claims that it owns 90% of the South China Sea, including Second Thomas Shoal, are illegal under a 2016 international tribunal ruling, the admiral told the House Armed Services Committee. China’s military has deployed warships, coast guard ships and maritime militia vessels throughout the international waterway in a bid to enforce its claims.
“It’s a really critical hot spot right now that could end up in a bad place,” Adm. Aquilino said. “The continued belligerent and aggressive and dangerous activity by the [People’s Republic of China] against our allies in the Philippines is concerning to me.”
The Chinese have no legal claim to the area they assert is sovereign territory, the four-star admiral said.
“And the fact is that they are now fire-hosing and ramming Philippine ships attempting to support Philippine sailors on the Sierra Madre. … If a sailor or soldier or one of their members were killed, [the Philippine government] could invoke Article 5 of the Mutual Defense Treaty, and that would put our policy decision makers in a place that would require really tough choices.”
Adm. Aquilino declined to say what military options he would recommend.
Defense analysts say the U.S. Navy could escort the Philippine resupply vessels to the shoal or take other defensive measures under the treaty.
Adm. Aquilino said the Philippine government has communicated its concerns about the dangerous incidents involving Second Thomas Shoal.
Still, China “continues to execute this belligerent, dangerous and aggressive activity” to prevent the resupply of forces at Second Thomas Shoal. Other aggressive actions have been taken to block Filipino fishermen at another island in the Spratlys called Scarborough Shoal.
The State Department voiced support for the Philippines in a statement issued on the day of the water cannon incident, condemning what it said were “dangerous actions” by China.
“The United States reaffirms that Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft — including those of its Coast Guard — anywhere in the South China Sea,” the statement said.
China’s military command vulnerable to hacking
The Chinese Communist Party’s top-down command structure for the People’s Liberation Army has created vulnerabilities that could be used by the U.S. military for electronic attacks to disrupt or deceive its main adversary, according to a report by a veteran China affairs expert.
Under President Xi Jinping, who is also chairman of the all-powerful CCP Central Military Commission, control over military operations is strictly controlled by party leadership, limiting flexibility needed by commanders and others during wars or other operations, said Larry Wortzel, a retired Army colonel who spent two tours as a military attache in China.
The U.S. and other Western militaries do not have similar political constraints and allow commanders to conduct operations more flexibly, based on what is called a “commander’s intent” for achieving the goals of a given military operation.
Mr. Wortzel said a 2022 official military journal article by four Chinese army officers broke with the current “commissar” system and suggested the PLA should adopt the looser U.S. Army mission command model. Currently, the commissars exercise command authority equal to that of all military commanders.
The Chinese army authors quote communist theorist Friedrich Engels, who wrote that it was “people and their will and bravery, not weapons, that win wars.” Mao Zedong was also quoted by the writers on the need for “command correctness” as a key to winning wars.
Mr. Xi has ordered the Chinese military to become a modern military force in the coming years, mainly by leveraging advanced arms and technology such as artificial intelligence. But he is also demanding that the military follow “firm and correct political direction” under the current command system modeled after the now-defunct Soviet Red Army.
This has produced a dual command structure of military and political leaders that will prevent the Chinese army from becoming a modern fighting force, Mr. Wortzel said in a report published earlier this month by the Association of the U.S. Army.
“This will undoubtedly impose new challenges on the PLA, particularly as these automated decision systems are vulnerable to enemy intervention and electromagnetic or cyberattack,” Mr. Wortzel said, using the abbreviation for the People’s Liberation Army. “There should be little doubt that the internal contradictions between using automation and remaining under the control of the political commissar system will create conflict in the PLA — between the party system and a group of officers who see another path, one that involves mission command and interpreting the commander’s intent.”
U.S. at strategic crossroads, analyst warns
The U.S.-led global system of alliances is facing greater strains and problems than at any time in history as past policies facilitate the growth of threats posed by China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, according to Keith Payne, a former Pentagon strategic analyst.
“These problems are neither fleeting nor prosaic; they are now structural and will require significant efforts to ameliorate,” Mr. Payne said in a report produced by the National Institute for Public Policy, a think tank he founded.
America’s alliances are a key advantage over an aggressive, authoritarian bloc led by an emerging China-Russia entente, which is working to overturn the world order created and sustained by U.S. and allied power.
“To maintain that advantage, Washington must recognize and respond to those threats, while resisting the usual anti-defense spending/anti-military themes of the ‘progressive’ Left and the seeming neo-isolationism of some on the political Right,” Mr. Payne said in a paper published this week.
Weakness and vacillation projected by both Democratic and Republican policymakers are triggering alarm among some allies who are heavily reliant on the United States for their security. In response, more allies, including Japan and Germany, have begun openly discussing acquiring nuclear weapons that could set off “a cascade” of nuclear proliferation, Mr. Payne said.
South Korea has also begun talking about going nuclear in response to the growing strategic threat from North Korea.
Other allies, such as Turkey and New Zealand, appear ready to accommodate Russia and China, respectively, and distance themselves from the United States.
France also recently urged Canada’s government to distance itself from Washington, and even Israel could move away from its close partnership with the United States.
“Washington’s actions, and more often inaction over many years, are a primary reason that authoritarian states now pose serious military threats to the West’s future,” Mr. Payne said. “The longer they go unanswered, the more likely it is that today’s threats will be the source of tomorrow’s crises and catastrophes.”
Unreal expectations by U.S. policymakers for years regarding cooperation with China, Russia, North Korea and Iran “facilitated foes’ hostile moves,” Mr. Payne said, noting that “weakness is provocative.”
Defense spending shortfalls and the decline of nuclear forces have compounded those failures, Mr. Payne said.
“In response to looming military threats, including the prospect of nuclear war, Washington seems uninterested in correcting course significantly,” he said, noting the continued pursuit of a post-Cold War “springtime of great expectations.”
“It may be too late to deter a reckoning that decades of indolence and wishful thinking have effectively invited,” Mr. Payne concluded.
Quoting Ronald Reagan, Mr. Payne said the United States is at war with a dangerous enemy, and if lost, the U.S. way of freedom will be lost. “History will record with greatest astonishment that those who had the most to lose did the least to prevent its happening,” Reagan observed.
• Contact Bill Gertz on X @BillGertz.
• Bill Gertz can be reached at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.
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