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China’s “massive” military buildup shows no signs of slowing down and the U.S. military in the region needs more money to better deter a war with Beijing, the outgoing commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific warned in testimony before Congress this week.
Adm. John C. Aquilino, commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, said his plan for deterring conflict with China will require $11 billion more than the Biden administration’s request in its latest budget.
The four-star admiral, who retires next month, issued several stark warnings about threats posed by China during testimony to the House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday.
“We must recognize that the most dangerous national security challenges are evolving faster than our current government processes allow us to address them,” he said.
A failure to build up forces in the region will embolden China and other adversaries in the region to take action to counter the United States and its allies, he said, with the most immediate threat coming from Chinese military activities toward Taiwan.
China has rapidly built new weapons and other military capabilities to take over the island democracy and fight U.S. forces should they intervene. The Chinese military is also engaged in exercises that amount to preparations for an invasion and is waging “gray zone” warfare – military coercion short of direct action — against Taipei.
“All indications point to the [People’s Liberation Army] meeting President Xi Jinping’s directive to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027,” Adm. Aquilino said in his most blunt assessment to date. “Furthermore, the PLA’s actions indicate their ability to meet Xi’s preferred timeline to unify Taiwan with mainland China by force if directed.”
Ely Ratner, assistant defense secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs, appeared to play down the dangers in his testimony. He told lawmakers that a conflict with China is “neither imminent nor inevitable.”
Adm. Aquilino appeared to challenge that assessment.
“Conflict is not imminent or inevitable, but our potential adversaries have become increasingly aggressive and seek to impose their will at the expense of like-minded nations that embrace a rules-based order,” he said. “The PRC’s actions, which include a massive military buildup accompanied by a campaign of coercive actions, destabilize the region and challenge the ideals that support a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
Not fast enough
Adm. Aquilino told the committee that his program to deter conflict, called Seize the Initiative, has produced some positive results. Still, he said, the administration is not moving fast enough in supplying new weapons and building infrastructure in the region.
The initiative calls for spending $26.5 billion. Adm. Aquilino said the current administration budget request falls short of meeting that funding goal by $11 billion.
“While progress has been made, the risk is still high, and it is trending in the wrong direction,” he said of the U.S. buildup. He cited delayed construction of facilities, shortfalls in new weapons and warfighting capabilities and a lack of resources needed to project power and maintain forces west of the international dateline.
The military must “move at the speed of relevance” to strengthen forces in the Pacific, he said.
Mr. Ratner said the current defense budget request includes $2.3 billion more for the Indo-Pacific than last year’s budget — though that is still well short of the $11 billion identified by the admiral.
“The focus areas of the budget are on the areas that Adm. Aquilino has largely identified, including in critical munitions and in [military construction], and we’re going to continue to work with them to close these gaps,” Mr. Ratner said.
The testimony on the state of the U.S. military in the Pacific was gathered to discuss a separate report Adm. Aquilino provided to the Pentagon and Congress under Section 1302 of last year’s Defense Authorization Act. That report identified the resources needed to deter a conflict with China.
Rep. Mike Gallagher, Wisconsin Republican, said during the hearing that the $11 billion shortfall faced by Indo-Pacific Command is the same amount returned to the Treasury Department because the spending authority had expired.
“Not only do we fail to take advantage of money that was appropriated, that we could have rerouted for our priority theater, the Indo Pacific, to give you the resources you need to prevent World War III, the [Defense Department] was actively working against a legislative effort to give DoD the flexibility to reroute that money,” Mr. Gallagher said during the hearing.
Adm. Aquilino said the funding shortfalls are made worse in light of China’s accelerating military buildup. The expansion is “on a scale not seen since World War II” and includes forces on and sea, air and outer space, as well as in the cyberspace and information domains.
In the past three years, the People’s Liberation Army has added 400 fighter advanced fighter aircraft and more than 20 major warships, including guided missile cruisers, destroyers and frigates, he said. The PLA more than doubled its inventory of ballistic and cruise missiles and grew the number of satellites more than 50%, a fivefold increase since 2020.
“Perhaps most concerning has been the rapid pace at which the PRC has bolstered its nuclear arsenal, increasing its warhead inventory by well over 100% since 2020,” Adm. Aquilino said.
Also in the past three years, Chinese intermediate- and medium-range missiles increased by over 60% with the continued development of the DF-27 missiles that can strike Guam. Chinese state media have called the DF-27 a “Guam-killer.”
“Upon taking command, the number of nuclear warheads was in the low 200s, and its nuclear triad was nascent, with the air component operationally fielded only in 2020,” Adm. Aquilino said.
“Now we see a PLA nuclear force with 500-plus warheads, missile systems employing multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV), three new ICBM silo fields, and a nuclear-capable, air-to-air refuelable bomber.”
The PLA plans to have 1,000 warheads by 2030, along with new bombers and submarines capable of launching them.
Intimidating Taiwan
On Taiwan, Adm. Aquilino said China would like to take over the island democracy without a war, as seen in growing military coercion with ship deployments and air incursions across the middle of the Taiwan Strait. China also has moved commercial flight paths closer to Taiwan.
The actions seek to force Taiwan to capitulate to China’s demands, something Adm. Aquilino said is not likely to happen. Still, the activities and the military buildup are concerns because China will not renounce the use of force as an option.
The PLA conducted exercises in 2022 and 2023 that the admiral said appeared to be rehearsals for island encirclement or a blockade.
Other drills appeared to be practice for countering U.S. intervention and amphibious assault. The amphibious exercises involved the use of civilian ferries and vehicle carriers.
“This operational strategy leverages civilian capabilities to prepare its forces for seizing Taiwan,” Adm. Aquilino stated in prepared remarks.
Further south, China “significantly increased” aggression against the Philippines and continued militarizing disputed islands in the South China Sea.
Adm. Aquilino said a key priority for the Pentagon is building up defenses on the U.S. island of Guam, which serves as a key military hub in the Pacific.
Russia and North Korea also are threats to U.S. interests in the region, and both continue to build up their forces there, he testified.
Asked about China’s development of hypersonic missiles designed to defeat U.S. missile defenses. Adm. Aquilino said the U.S. military needs its own hypersonic arsenal as a counter.
The command is working on a strategy Adm. Aquilino called “blind, see, kill” that would prevent China from carrying out successful attacks on U.S. forces by blinding its sensors, better intelligence and weapons that can attack Chinese forces before they can strike.
• Bill Gertz can be reached at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.
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