Battle for Senate taking shape in Tuesday’s hard-fought GOP primary in Ohio

Bernie Moreno’s odds of winning the GOP Senate race in Ohio — a crucial battleground in the party’s quest to take over the chamber from Democrats — jumped late last year after he received former President Donald Trump’s coveted blessing.

Three months later, the race — which also features state Sen. Matt Dolan and Secretary of State Frank Larose — remains fluid heading into the primary Tuesday.

It is so close that Mr. Trump decided it warranted a late-in-the-game visit to remind voters that Mr. Moreno, a former luxury car dealer, is his preferred pick.

“Trump doesn’t want his candidates to lose because that is going to reflect badly on him,” said Jessica Taylor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report. “This is the first real big primary where he’s endorsed anyone for Senate in the competitive race.”

Mr. Moreno’s run hit a bump ahead of the primary when he was linked to a 2008 profile seeking “men for 1-on-1 sex” on the sexual hook-up website Adult Friend Finder.

The Associated Press confirmed the photo-less profile under the username “nardo19672” was created by someone with access to Mr. Moreno’s email account. The candidate’s lawyer told the AP that a former intern created the account as a prank. The lawyer provided a statement from the intern, Dan Ricci, who said he created the account as “part of a juvenile prank.”

Mr. Moreno’s lawyer, Charles Harder, insisted Moreno “had nothing to do with the AFF account.”

Mr. Dolan, a millionaire whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, is Mr. Moreno’s strongest opponent.

Considered the least Trumpian and most moderate candidate in the race, Mr. Dolan has the backing of Gov. Mike DeWine and former Sen. Rob Portman.

The winner of the Ohio Senate primary will face off in the November election against Sen. Sherrod Brown, a three-term Democrat who has watched Ohio go from a swing state to a reliably red state.

Voters also head to the polls Tuesday in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Kansas to have their say in presidential primary races. But now that President Biden and Mr. Trump have clinched their nominations, more of the attention shifted to the Ohio Senate primary.

Widely considered one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats up for re-election this fall, the hopes of Democrats defending their slim majority rest on Mr. Brown’s shoulders.

“If they lose Ohio, they’ve lost the Senate,” Ms. Taylor said.

Mr. Trump’s endorsement has proven to be as good as gold in nomination races, but his record picking winners in competitive general election races is more of a mixed bag.

Mr. Trump’s hand-picked candidates in 2022 dropped winnable Senate races in Arizona, New Hampshire, Georgia and Pennsylvania, sinking the party’s bid to flip the chamber.

But Mr. Trump did enjoy 2022 success in Ohio, a state that he carried in back-to-back presidential races by 8 points.

Mr. Trump’s endorsement of Mr. Vance helped separate him from several rivals who also sought Mr. Trump’s support. 

This included Mr. Moreno, who pulled the plug on his campaign shortly after meeting with Mr. Trump to discuss the state of play in the race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman.

Less than two years later, Mr. Trump endorsed Mr. Moreno’s latest bid for the Senate in December.

“It’s the most powerful endorsement I’ve seen in politics in almost any Republican primary,” said Jai Chabria, an Ohio-based GOP strategist. “What I see in the numbers right now is that there is a lack of awareness of the Trump endorsement and that’s probably a multitude of factors, but I think that’s been an interesting thing.”

Mr. Moreno also has the support of the Club for Growth, which has poured money into attack ads against Mr. Dolan, underscoring the threat he poses.

The Trump endorsement landed with more of a thud than usual because it came during the holiday season and amid lingering voter fatigue from the fierce battle last year over a referendum to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution.

“The conventional wisdom would be Trump comes in does this rally, it gets a tone of converge and it pushes the undecided voters toward Moreno,” Ms. Taylor said. “That could happen, but the fact that this is not put away in the way that we thought it would be could have an impact on the general election.”

A recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll of Republican voters found Mr. Dolan leading the pack with 26%, followed by Mr. Moreno, with 23% and Mr. LaRose with 16%.

Roughly a third of the primary voters were undecided.

Mr. LaRose has lacked the funds to compete with Mr. Dolan and Mr. Moreno, both of whom have sunk millions of their fortunes into their campaigns.

Mr. Dolan and his allies have highlighted the role he played in crafting conservative-oriented state budgets that lowered taxes and paved the way for expanding school choice.

They also have criticized Mr. Moreno for flip-flopping on immigration, warning voters he previously supported a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants.

“I fight and get results,” Mr. Dolan said in the final debate. “Civility in politics is not a weakness, and strength should not be judged by how loud you are, but on the results you get for the American people.”

Mr. Moreno and his allies have countered by highlighting Mr. Dolan’s past criticism of Mr. Trump and touting Mr. Trump’s support.

“This a very, very, simple conversation. Do you want a senator that is going to have President Trump’s back, that has his endorsement, or do you want the Nikki Haley, Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney wing of the party?” Mr. Moreno said in the debate. “That is the choice. It is that simple.”