Russian President Vladimir Putin is prepared to attack Germany as part of an invasion that could last years and trigger full-scale conflict with NATO, according to a just-released government report delivered to German lawmakers in the Bundestag.
The “Civil Defense Risk Analysis” outlines scenarios between an unnamed aggressor and NATO and is based on lessons learned from Russia’s war against Ukraine, now in its third year.
The 14-page report comes after German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Russia could attack NATO in five to eight years and as the allies take part in the biggest joint military drills in eastern Europe since the Cold War.
“An aggressor attack — hybrid and/or using the full arsenal of modern armed forces in all dimensions (land, air/space, sea, cyber and information) on NATO territory — is, therefore, a likely scenario,” the report says, according to the Daily Mail.
The multistage war could begin with a combination of espionage activity along with cyberattacks and sabotage against defense facilities and critical infrastructure.
“A key feature of this phase is that the hybrid influence is conducted covertly and cannot be immediately linked to the aggressor,” Ukraine Pravda reported.
The activity would become more intense and less covert and result in NATO troops being fully deployed along the border with Russia. The third phase of the operation could last at least a year and involve open military aggression against NATO territory along with possible disruption of satellites in space.
In the final phase, attacking troops would break through NATO’s defensive lines and roll into Germany. The report also envisions a possible armed confrontation in space, according to the Daily Mail.
“A full-scale war would grip Europe and would only be ended by a cease-fire agreement ‘no earlier than a few months later,’” the newspaper reported.
On Thursday, Mr. Putin warned that NATO members and other Western backers of Ukraine are risking nuclear war by deepening their involvement in the conflict. French President Emmanuel Macron has suggested that NATO shouldn’t rule out sending troops to Ukraine. The U.S. and other alliance members have rejected the idea.
“They must realize that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory,” Mr. Putin warned in his annual State of the Nation address. “What they are now suggesting and scaring the world with — all that raises the real threat of a nuclear conflict that will mean the destruction of our civilization.”
• Mike Glenn can be reached at mglenn@washingtontimes.com.
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