Former President Donald Trump’s conviction in the hush money trial barely budged the needle in the 2024 presidential race, a contest that remains too close to call, according to a newly released poll.
A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday found that 55% of likely voters said that the New York jury’s guilty verdict May 31 is “not a factor” in their decision on the presidential candidates, while 28% called it a “major factor” and 17% said it was a “minor factor.”
Among voters nationally, the contest stood at 50% for Mr. Trump and 49% for President Biden. In the battleground states, it was the reverse, with 49% favoring Mr. Trump and 50% backing Mr. Biden.
“Voters say Donald Trump’s guilty verdict pales in importance compared to issues like the economy, inflation, and the border, so while it hasn’t dramatically reshaped the Presidential race, that race today is essentially tied in likely voter preference nationally, and across the battleground states,” the polling analysis said.
Most Republicans also see the charges as Trumped-up: Fully 80% believe Mr. Trump was charged on “directions from the Biden administration,” while 94% of Democrats credited “directions from local prosecutors.”
Where the verdict may have influenced the race lies with the motivations of Biden supporters. A majority, or 54%, of Biden voters now say that their main reason for supporting the Democratic incumbent is “to oppose Trump,” up from 47% in March.
Only 27% of Biden voters said that their primary motivation is that “I like Biden,” down from 31% in March.
Mr. Biden does best with voters who are focused on his opponent. For Americans who see the race as a “judgment about Trump,” Mr. Biden wins 66-34%.
Those who view the contest as a “judgment about Biden” swing for Mr. Trump by 66-34%. The Republican also comes out ahead when the race is framed as “comparing Biden and Trump,” with 53% for Mr. Trump and 47% for Mr. Biden.
CBS poll. Not much good news for Biden. Statistical tie right now.
— Sean Nienow (@SNienow) June 9, 2024
“Trump outpaces Mr. Biden on a range of qualities like being seen as effective, tough, energetic and - more narrowly - competent. Also, more think Trump has a vision…”
Much more insidehttps://t.co/aEWzCzqg2r pic.twitter.com/wRrhRKaKQx
The leading driver for voters still comes down to their pocketbooks: 81% cited the economy as their top issue, followed by inflation, the “state of democracy,” crime, the southern border, and firearms policy. Just 28% led with the “Trump conviction.”
In terms of personal qualities, voters see Mr. Trump as more “tough,” “energetic,” “effective” and “competent,” while Mr. Biden is viewed as more “compassionate.”
The poll conducted June 5-7 with 2,063 U.S. adult residents includes an oversample for Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The margin of error is +/-3.2% among all adults and +/-3.8% among registered voters.
• Valerie Richardson can be reached at vrichardson@washingtontimes.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.