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ROME — Surging right-wing parties are poised to make big gains as voters across the European Union head to the polls to elect a new Parliament, but the consensus is unclear about how those gains will play out during a time of division and stress for the 27-nation bloc.
The Netherlands kicked off four days of voting across the continent on Thursday. Polls predict the European Union’s main far-right and center-right parties will gain seats in the 720-seat European Parliament, mostly at the expense of liberal parties and the pro-environmental greens.
Analysts note that conservative parties in the 27 European Union states differ on major issues, including relations with the U.S. and NATO, policy on Ukraine and Israel, defense spending, views of China, climate change and economics. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is perhaps the most prominent “far-right” leader of a major EU power, but she is also one of the bloc’s staunchest hawks in opposing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“The right-wing parties in France, Germany, Italy or Hungary, each of them has its own agendas and priorities,” said Sophia Russack, a researcher specializing in European Union issues with the Center for European Policy Studies, a Brussels-based think tank. “We have to remember that these are 27 different elections. The results are not aggregated.
“Basically, the only two areas where all the right-wing parties agree across the board are to limit migration coming into the EU and to limit the power of the European Union itself,” Ms. Russack told The Washington Times in an interview.
Nearly 400 million Europeans will cast ballots through Sunday to elect members of the European Parliament to five-year terms. Voter turnout is expected to top 70%, higher than in the U.S. Most results should be known by late Sunday.
The European vote could help foreshadow the outcomes of U.S. elections in November. The unexpected result in Britain’s 2016 “Brexit vote” preceded Donald Trump’s upset victory over Hillary Clinton by five months.
Big Tech companies such as Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, and Apple have been using the EU Parliament vote as a dry run for their efforts to limit the role of election misinformation during political campaigns.
From the U.S. perspective, the most important impact of the vote will be the EU’s political posture toward the next administration, whether led by President Biden or Mr. Trump.
Carlo Curti Gialdino, a professor of European Union Law at Rome’s Sapienza University, said the result of this week’s vote could be less collaboration across the Atlantic and more divisions over dealing with Russia, China’s economic challenge, climate change and immigration.
European countries have been reliable geopolitical allies for the U.S. on international peacekeeping, trade, vaccine development, climate policy and other areas. Twenty-three of the EU’s 27 member states are among NATO’s 32 members, but Europe is seen as punching below its weight in many areas.
“Europe has been an economic giant but a political dwarf,” Mr. Curti Gialdino said. “I think there is a risk of more isolationist policies, whether Biden or Trump wins. The U.S. doesn’t want Europe to have a common defense policy, but that could happen, and if it does, it would lead to problems between the two sides.”
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Mr. Curti Gialdino said the cyclical nature of elections probably means the next U.S. administration will have to work with a European Union that is further to the right, though wholesale changes are unlikely.
“Obviously, it’s rare for the broad governing coalition to lose consensus, but there will be changes at the margins,” he said in an interview. “In times of need, like during the pandemic or in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe becomes more united. This will likely continue despite divisions between states.”
Paradoxically, many leading euroskeptic voices on the right are making a play for a major win in the EU parliamentary vote, largely as a way to pare the power of Brussels and return sovereign decisions to individual governments.
“You also need to have a strong presence in the European Parliament to make sure that, if necessary, we will be able to change the European guidelines in order to be in charge of our own immigration policy and asylum policy,” Geert Wilders told reporters after voting in The Hague on Thursday. His far-right Party for Freedom is now the Netherlands’ biggest party and a member of the new governing coalition.
A lot has changed since the last EU vote in 2019. Ms. Russack said climate change was the central issue voters considered then. Now, European electorates appear far more focused on topics related to global conflicts, energy policy and inflation.
Political differences among countries have also grown, with far-right parties once considered beyond the pale scoring major gains in Slovakia, Austria, Spain and France.
Some changes are already happening. The announcement that Ireland, Norway and Spain would diplomatically recognize Palestine as a sovereign, independent nation was a blow to U.S. influence in that difficult area.
Most countries already recognize an independent Palestinian state — just 50 of the United Nations’ 193 member-states do not — but the group of holdouts includes all of Washington’s main global allies, including Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and, until now, almost all of Western Europe. That divergence from U.S. policy stances could become more common.
Although sometimes dismissed as a glorified talking shop with little direct executive powers, the EU Parliament has proved to be a powerful channel for political protest votes and a barometer of political trends and the traction of individual issues.
Members of the European Parliament, or MEPs, also have the final say on EU initiatives covering banking rules, climate, agriculture, fisheries, security and justice. They also hold the power of the purse and must approve the EU budget.
After the new Parliament is seated, the various blocs will vote on the president of the EU Commission, the bloc’s executive arm. German center-right politician Ursula von der Leyen is seeking a second five-year term, but her reelection in the vote, likely this fall, is far from assured.
• This article is based in part on wire service reports.
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