Modi’s high hopes dashed as party loses majority in marathon Indian vote

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SEOUL, South Korea — Indian vote counters had their work cut out for them Tuesday as the world’s most populous nation entered the final hours of the world’s greatest-ever exercise of democratic politics, but it was already clear the victory party for Prime Minister Narendra Modi is going to be a pretty muted affair.

Results were still being tallied after a six-weeks-long general election, held across a nation of 1.4 billion people that encompasses tiny villages and colossal urban areas, tropical jungles and scorching deserts, white sand beaches and snow-capped Himalayan peaks.

With 543 parliamentary seats up for grabs for the next five years, early indications are that Mr. Modi, as expected, has won a third term in office, but that opposition parties did better than many pre-vote polls had predicted. The country’s Election Commission said Wednesday morning that the Modi-led National Democratic Alliance won 286 seats, more than the 272 seats needed to secure a majority — but far fewer than most had predicted.

“People have placed their faith in the NDA for a third consecutive term,” Mr. Modi wrote in a social media post. “This is a historical feat in India’s history.”

The NDA, or National Democratic Alliance, is the governing coalition led by Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (“Indian People’s Party”). Mr. Modi’s reference to the NDA rather than the BJP may reflect a changed parliamentary landscape.

The emerging vote counts suggest a surprisingly strong challenge to Mr. Modi and the BJP from the main opposition Indian National Congress, as well as other parties. That means that while Mr. Modi himself looks secure, he is almost certain to end up presiding over a parliament where his BJP-led coalition has lost its absolute majority and will need coalition partners to govern.

Rahul Gandhi, scion of a famous Indian political family and the electoral face of the Congress Party campaign, said the results suggested the BJP had lost its mandate and that Mr. Modi himself was being rejected by the voters.

“The people’s clear message to PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah is that we don’t want you to run the nation,” Mr. Gandhi said. “The poorest of this country have defended the constitution of India.”

Congress party leaders had hoped to build on the paltry 52 seats they won in Mr. Modi’s 2019 landslide win, and were on track to roughly double that number, the Associated Press reported.

Projections Tuesday morning, with about 40% of the vote still to be tabulated, gave the BJP roughly 240 seats in the next parliament, down sharply from the record 303 seats the party won five years ago. The broader NDA coalition was on track to control 286 seats.

But there were clear signs the Indian political establishment was surprised by the results: The country’s two main stock indices, which were in record territory Monday in expectation of a big Modi victory, slumped sharply Tuesday as the results started coming in.

Political horse-trading looks likely. The leading parties will discuss the results and India’s changed political landscape at a meeting Wednesday, the Hindu newspaper reported.

Over the voting period, which stretched from 19 April to June 1, Mr. Modi trumpeted his party’s considerable progress on economic and welfare policies, but also sounded a clarion call of Hindu nationalism.

Muslims make up some 14 percent of India’s population. The BJP is widely seen as being Hindu populist in its outlook, and the party has suffered from both inflation and joblessness.

With the results still to be tabulated, the Biden administration said Tuesday it was taking a wait-and-see attitude.

“We saw how devoted the Indian people are to voicing their desires and participating in a very vibrant process,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters, adding, “We’re going to withhold judgment and comment” until all the votes have been counted.

For Washington policymakers, India matters.

India, the world’s fifth largest economy, lies between Central Asia and East Asia, shares troubled borders with Pakistan and China, and has coastlines on the Arabian Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal.

Though nuclear-armed, the world’s largest democracy maintains a non-aligned geopolitical stance, Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, some Western commentators have been irked by New Delhi’s continued friendliness toward Moscow, from which it has consistently bought arms and energy.

However, there is some Westward lean.

With Russian forces heavily engaged in combat, some foreign arms executives expect India – like Vietnam, a long-term user of Russian arms – to turn to alternative suppliers as Moscow is forced to use, rather than export, its own weaponry stocks.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, between 2019 and 2023, India was the world’s top arms importer. Though Russia remained India’s main supplier, accounting for 36% of weapons imports, the period was the first time since 1964 that Russian weaponry made up less than half of India’s arms imports.

More than 640 million votes were cast in the marathon six-week election, conducted at times in sweltering conditions. The turnout averaged 66%, according to official data reported by the Associated Press.