Moderate, hard-liner candidates set for run-off in Iranian election; critics say contest is a sham

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Cardiologist Masoud Pezeshkian, considered the lone moderate in Iran’s snap presidential elections, finished in first place over the weekend, but he’ll need plenty of help to overcome a well-known Iranian hard-liner in a candidate runoff set for July 5.

Critics of the Iranian regime, including the thousands of Iranian dissidents who gathered for a rally in Berlin over the weekend, seized on the low electoral turnout as proof of Iranians’ deep dissatisfaction with their electoral choices and, increasingly, with the government.

Mr. Pezeshkian, allied with forces inside Iran who helped the negotiate the market-opening 2015 nuclear deal that is now in shreds, received 42.5% of the vote, according to figures released by the Iranian government, while hard-liner Saeed Jalili was second with 38.6%. The rest of the roughly 24.5 million votes cast were split between two other hard-line candidates.

Theoretically, the hard-line, anti-U.S. forces can coalesce to easily elect Mr. Jalili later this week, but more than 60% of eligible voters did not participate. Critics say the regime’s official statistics are likely inflated, meaning the true turnout may have been even lower than that.

The snap elections in Iran came on the heels of a May helicopter crash that killed then-President Ebrahim Raisi. He was seen as a possible successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Regime opponents say the 85-year-old ayatollah wanted to use elections to solidify Iran’s governing structure. But the outcome seems to prove that approach failed.

“The outcome is that Khamenei aimed to resolve the issue of succession and ensure the regime’s survival after his death through this election. However, he failed in this endeavor, bringing the regime one significant step closer to its downfall,” said Maryam Rajavi, president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, the world’s largest exiled Iranian dissident movement.

The organization, and its associate group, the exiled People’s Mujahedin of Iran (MEK), organized Saturday’s rally in Berlin.

“This election was intended to address Khamenei’s succession problem and secure the regime’s continuity, but it has left the regime without a clear successor,” Ms. Rajavi said in a speech at the Berlin event. “Darker days lie ahead for the clerical regime. The countdown to overthrow has begun.”

NCRI and other regime critics have said that the election results in Iran matter little, as the supreme leader still sets broad policy, dictates the actions of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxy groups across the Middle East, and makes virtually all other key, big-picture decisions. Indeed, most analysts agree that the eventual election winner will have severely limited power. Even a supposed reformer such as Mr. Pezeshkian will have his hands tied.

That reality seems to have contributed to the low voter turnout.

“Herein lies the crux of voter apathy: An elected president in the Islamic Republic is at a huge disadvantage against the unelected supreme leader, whose powers are basically infinite as long as the streets do not erupt,” Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, wrote in a recent analysis. “Pezeshkian and his supporters have spent most of their time and energy trying to disprove this point, but it is unlikely they have changed many minds.”

Still, the outcome could have at least a marginal impact on diplomatic policy and its relationships. Many figures associated with the reformist camp inside Iran, including former President Mohammed Khatami and former Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif, have endorsed the front-runner, and an unknown number of disillusioned voters may be encouraged to get to the polls for the second round of voting Friday.

Mr. Jalili, Iran’s former lead negotiator during nuclear negotiations with the West, could take an even more aggressive posture toward the U.S. and Europe if elected, some specialists believe. Mr. Pezeshkian, on the other hand, could crack open the door to a more diplomatically accessible Tehran.

The Biden administration could view that as an opportunity to revive the Obama-era deal that put limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for relief from economic sanctions. President Trump in 2018 pulled the U.S. out of that deal.

The Biden administration tried to resurrect the agreement and spent the better part of two years engaged in behind-the-scenes diplomacy with Tehran.

The effort broke down in 2022 amid aggressive posturing by Iranian officials and Western anger over Iran’s support for Russia in its war against Ukraine.

Critics say the Biden administration, in its desire to resurrect the JCPOA, spent years essentially appeasing a regime that supports terror groups around the world, including the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which launched an attack on Israel on Oct. 7.

The IRGC also backs Yemen’s Houthi rebels, Lebanon-based Hezbollah, Shiite militias that target U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria, and other groups across the Middle East, according to analysts and U.S. government officials.

At the Berlin rally, Ms. Rajavi called on the U.S. and Europe to seize what she argued is a crucial moment and take a tougher stance against the Iranian regime.

“The moribund regime finds itself encircled by Iranian society, yet the policies of Western governments persistently hinge on appeasement. This is why it is crucial to decisively end this policy once and for all,” she said.