Conservative National Rally takes historic first in French parliamentary vote

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France’s anti-immigration, far-right National Rally party, once considered a fringe group, scored its biggest electoral triumph to date, taking a clear first place in snap parliamentary elections Sunday called by President Emmanuel Macron in a gamble to try to limit the party’s influence.

But while battered by the result, the centrist Mr. Macron may have dodged the knockout blow many feared, as the National Rally appeared to capture around a third of the vote, while a coalition of leftist parties and Mr. Macron’s own Together party getting a combined 50% of the vote.

The focus in Paris quickly shifted to next Sunday’s second round of run-off voting, where the parties can combine and coordinate in districts where no single candidate obtained a clear majority.

Pollsters from Ipsos-France on Sunday estimated that, at most, just 85 of the 577 seats up for grabs in the lower house of parliament were decided outright, with the rest heading to two- or three-candidate run-offs.

Leaders of France’s coalition of leftist parties, who also outpolled Mr. Macron on Sunday, say they will drop out of races where their candidate finished third, in hopes of combining the anti-conservative vote.

Although the numbers were highly fluid, the first projections gave the National Rally between 230 and 280 seats in the 577-seat assembly, the left-wing alliance 125 to 165 seats and Mr. Macron’s coalition 100 at the most.

That may dampen preelection hopes expressed by National Rally leader Marine Le Pen that her party could seize an outright majority in the 577-seat lower house parliament, name party rising star Jordan Bardella as prime minister, and force Mr. Macron into a “cohabitation” government that could hamstring the remaining three years of his term.

Mr. Macron’s hopes of avoiding a humiliating reverse may rest on the huge turnout numbers French Interior Ministry officials were reporting throughout the day.

An estimated 69% of voters went to the polls, up a startling 30 percentage points from the last parliamentary election just two years ago, seen as a reflection by many voters that they were facing a watershed election.

Both of the leading French polling agencies projected shortly after the voting concluded that the National Rally was in clear first with about 34% of the vote, the leftist alliance of parties known as the New Popular Front second with about 29% of the vote, and Mr. Macron’s centrist party third with just 22%.

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, an ally of Mr. Macron, signaled the non-conservative parties will try to limit the National Rally’s final totals, telling supporters late Sunday, “The stakes are clear: to prevent the National Rally from having an absolute majority.”

Despite the uncertainties, Ms. Le Pen - who won her own race for a seat in the district of Pas-de-Calais - celebrated with supporters Sunday while cautioning there was more work to be done.

“The French people have shown that they want to draw a line under seven years of [Mr. Macron’s] disdainful rule,” she said at a party event in the town of Henin-Beaumont in eastern France. “We haven’t won yet.”

Whatever the final numbers, the result was a remarkable achievement for Ms. Le Pen, who has worked for years to raise the far-right party to respectability and shed its historical ties to fascist and antisemitic forces.

As with other right-wing parties on both sides of the Atlantic, she has also effectively used the issues of immigration, public security and an embrace of traditional social values to steadily cut into the popularity of establishment parties on the left and right.

How the outcome will affect French foreign policy and relations with the United States is also unsettled.

Mr. Macron has been a leading hawk in support of Ukraine in both NATO and the European Union in its war with Russia. Ms. Le Pen has firmly ruled out Mr. Macron’s trial balloon of sending French troops to aid in the fight and Mr. Bardella said during the campaign he would oppose sending long-range artillery to Kyiv.

Two years ago, the National Rally won just 18% of the vote in the first round and 17% in the second, although it was able to expand the number of seats it had from seven to nearly 90. Mr. Macron called the early vote Sunday in reaction to major gains the far-right forces had made in European Union parliamentary elections in early June.

While hot-button social issues have sometimes dominated the debate, widespread dissatisfaction with Mr. Macron’s handling of the economy, inflation and basic public services have also fueled the National Rally’s support.

But immigration and what supporters see as a threat to French national identity and sovereignty have also played a major role in the party’s rise.

Mr. Bardella recently told the Financial Times that one of his priorities if elected prime minister would be a bill to combat “Islamist ideologies” and speed up the process to close mosques and deport imams who support “radicalized” agendas.