South Africa’s once-dominant ANC tested as it weighs deal to share power

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JOHANNESBURG — The African National Congress, after decades of unchallenged political dominance, is about to learn a new skill: sharing.

After repeatedly addressing the world’s press and South African voters, President Cyril Ramaphosa faces his toughest audience as the ANC will be forced to share power if it wants to be part of the country’s governing coalition.

After perhaps the most consequential vote of the post-apartheid era, Mr. Ramaphosa will meet with ANC executive officers and senior members of his party to discuss their options after securing only 40.2% of last week’s vote, down from 57% five years ago.

The president will update them on negotiations to form a coalition with other parties and explain the factors that caused this nation of 62 million to lose faith in a movement that was founded in 1912 and many of whose veterans — including Nelson Mandela and Jacob Zuma — were storied political prisoners during the time of White minority rule.

“Our people have spoken,” Mr. Ramaphosa said Sunday, striking a rueful note as the official tallies were announced. “Whether we like it or not, they have spoken.”

Certainly, the voters knew what ailed them, and repeated surveys over the past 12 months suggested support for the ANC at 38% to 47%. The same research also pinpointed the causes of the ANC’s decline.

Unemployment came on top, no surprise when up to three-quarters of youths in some poorer areas are out of work. Crime was prominent on the list in a country with the world’s third-highest homicide rate. Barely a day passes without a tale of state corruption in the press, and voters griped about millions of foreigners from the rest of Africa who they say are taking jobs and pushing up rents.

John Steenhuisen, a 48-year-old White South African from the coastal city of Durban, toured the country promising that his opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) would end corruption. He said this would encourage investors and create much-needed jobs. He also promised to be tough on crime.

His party came second in the race, taking more than 3.5 million votes. The DA also took 75% of the votes cast by South Africans abroad. Of these, just over 1,200 were carried out at the embassy in Washington and consulates in Los Angeles and New York City.

In Pretoria, Mr. Ramaphosa was said to be in discussions with the DA, whose 22% of the seats in Parliament would give an ANC-led coalition a healthy majority. Any deal-breakers could scupper the plan or break an alliance later on, leading to elections before the five-year term is up in 2029.

Coalition demands

The DA wants an end to “cadre deployment,” which involves giving jobs in state-owned industries to ANC supporters and often the family of those in power, sometimes without the required qualifications.

They will also be keen to end the ANC’s obsession with the Gaza Strip. The Ramaphosa government led initiatives at the United Nations and the International Criminal Court at the Hague to condemn what they say is an Israeli genocide, reflecting the party’s long-standing ties to the Palestinian independence movement but upsetting the governments in Israel and the U.S.

The DA shadow foreign minister, Emma Powell, has repeatedly called for Pretoria to focus on its foreign policy closer to home where they might make a difference, including wars in Mozambique, Congo and Sudan and Islamic terrorist groups in West Africa.

The ANC’s key demand is that there be no effort to remove Mr. Ramaphosa as president and future leader of the coalition. Should a deal be struck, Mr. Steenhuisen could become the country’s first White vice president since F.W. de Klerk resigned from that position in 1996 during the Mandela government.

Options

Only two parties now have enough seats in a 400-seat parliament to grant the ANC a majority of 201: the DA and the fledgling uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party headed by Mr. Ramaphosa’s nemesis, former President Jacob Zuma. MK surprised pundits by taking third place nationally with a strong 14.5% of the vote, running up big tallies in Mr. Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu Natal (KZN).

The party is likely to seek a high price for its support. It campaigned for the nationalization of land, mines and banks, major amendments to what is ranked among the world’s most liberal constitutions, and an end to the many corruption charges Mr. Zuma faces in the courts over his time in office.

For all the socialist talk that dominates the ANC’s website and party literature, it has been business-friendly for the past 30 years, especially in the United States. Walmart owns a major chain of stores across the country, and U.S. fast-food chains have outlets in almost every suburb. At one time, Mr. Ramaphosa was the head of McDonald’s South African operations.

Mr. Zuma, the country’s first and only Zulu president, was ousted by the ANC in 2018 over allegations of corruption and replaced by Mr. Ramaphosa. Working together in coalition would not be easy.

Mr. Zuma has claimed to be a victim of political rivals, using his home province as a political backstop. MK took nearly half the provincial vote in KwaZulu Natal, with 15% going to the equally Zulu Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP). Three years ago, when Mr. Zuma was briefly jailed on charges of contempt of court, riots in KZN left 354 people dead and shopping malls were burned to the ground. More than 5,000 were arrested.

For the ANC, keeping the peace and ensuring everyone has their say is no easy task in a place of such diversity and nine provinces with highly diverse electorates. The MK says it has evidence of rigging during the election — a total of 539 objections have been lodged across all parties — and veiled threats of violence. No evidence has come forward.

Mr. Ramaphosa says the police and army are ready to deal with anyone acting outside the democratic process or the constitution.

In a compromise, the proposed ANC-DA coalition may ask the IFP to join them. The party took almost 4% of the national vote, an increase from 2019 and 15% in KZN. Its manifesto is as pro-business as the DA and as liberal in many ways as the ANC, but with a demand that the country’s 11 languages and myriad cultures, tribal chiefs and ceremonies be respected and maintained. This is one of Mr. Zuma’s demands as well.

The three-way coalition would give the government close to the two-thirds majority in Parliament required to change the constitution, but whether the ANC, DA and IFP can reach a deal is yet to be seen. All three parties have factions, and all will argue for their policies to prevail. Maintaining Cabinet discipline will not be easy in a country unused to coalition politicking.

In his speech marking the end of the electoral process, Mr. Ramaphosa said democracy was “strong, robust and enduring.” All three terms will be tested in negotiations and the patchwork administration that results. Failure could push one of Africa’s most influential countries and economies into a long period of uncertainty.

“This is a time for all of us to put South Africa first,” Mr. Ramaphosa said Sunday, but analysts say most players around the table will have little experience with the game.

“The DA has approached the ANC as the enemy over many, many years,” political analyst Oscar van Heerden said on the eNCA news network. “The next few days is going to be a very difficult period. People will have to be mature behind closed doors.”