OPINION:
In the wake of President Biden’s — let’s be charitable — somewhat uneven, disjointed and lethargic performance in Thursday’s debate, there has been a cascade of calls to replace him as the Democratic nominee for president.
At first blush, that doesn’t seem like a bad idea.
But the Democrats might want to think for a minute or two before they pull that particular fire alarm (with apologies to Rep. Jamaal Bowman). There are a few reasons to keep Uncle Joe in place.
First, and most importantly, no matter who the Democratic nominee is, he or she will, by necessity, be running on the record established by the Biden administration. That record includes incredibly corrosive inflation, which has caused households’ real incomes to shrink, multiple foreign policy failures in the Middle East, surging federal debt, and a general sense that things are not going well.
I have no clue who could make that record sound good. I don’t think anyone else does, either.
Second, replacing Mr. Biden with anyone other than Vice President Kamala Harris would create an immediate fissure in the Democratic coalition that would take at least a generation to repair. Skipping over the first female vice president and a woman of color to nominate yet another average White dude with a hairdo — such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom — would be literally inexplicable to about one-third of the party’s most reliable voters. In many respects, it would be better for Democrats to simply accept defeat this year and rebuild for the next cycle.
Third, as difficult as it is to imagine at the moment, Mr. Biden — with his vestigial association with and attachments to the moderate heritage of centrist Democrats — may, in fact, be the only person capable of defeating former President Donald Trump. The next Democratic nominee, whenever they might appear, is much more likely to adhere openly to the progressive creed of today’s Democratic Party.
That is not to say Mr. Biden does not. But his commitment to the exterior signs of normalcy — his nostalgia for labor unions, football, Catholicism, automobiles, etc. — are obvious attempts to signal that he is a faithful adherent to the old-time Democratic religion. The next nominee will not even bother to attempt to issue that signal.
Finally, the logistics of changing horses in midstream are daunting. It is not clear that all the money given to the Biden campaign effort is fungible, nor is it clear how an open convention might work. The last open convention was in 1952. Then Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson was the Democratic nominee, and he lost, no doubt in part because an open convention resulted in a fractured party.
An open convention now would be no different. It is unlikely that the delegates will be of one mind about the right path forward in the event that Mr. Biden withdraws. The chances of ugly conflict and recriminations would be substantial. What if Mr. Biden really is the only thing holding together the shaky Democratic coalition?
Apart from all that, television time has already been purchased, and commercials have already been produced. All of that would have to be reworked. It is likely that donors are already making plans — and spending their limited resources — to build a firewall in the Senate, having concluded that Mr. Biden is a lost cause.
The elected officials, the donors and the worker bee operatives who run the Democratic Party know all of this, which is why few of them have been willing to go on the record in any of the scores of stories outlining increasingly fantastical scenarios under which a deus ex machina appears to save the day, resolve the play and send the audience home happy.
As for those in the Trump campaign, under the steady guidance of Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, they know that the best thing they can do is — to borrow from Rocky Balboa — keep moving forward, no matter who their opponent might be. They understand that a new and unexpected opponent would pose different and perhaps greater challenges than Mr. Biden.
• Michael McKenna is a contributing editor at The Washington Times and a co-host of the podcast “The Unregulated.”
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