ATLANTA — The presidential race is remarkably defined yet still unpredictable entering the first debate.
President Biden and former President Donald Trump are both disliked by broad swaths of the electorate but still have clear paths to victory almost four months before Election Day.
Those paths, however, are littered with potential pitfalls and obstacles, including third-party and independent rivals and public fretting over age and temperament.
“The race has been stagnant because both candidates are known quantities,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “The issues — whether inflation or immigration or abortion — are just outward expressions of what really underlies voters’ motivations: fear of change and uncertainty about the future.”
The good news for Mr. Biden is that polls show a tightening race.
He has post-Roe political tailwinds on his side. He benefits from a deep-seated dislike of Mr. Trump, which helps him with listless voters who might view him as the lesser of two evils in an election where many voters are not enamored with their choices.
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Running against a convicted felon also doesn’t hurt. Mr. Trump is set to be sentenced on July 11 and could face jail time or home confinement.
Still, ominous signs loom for Mr. Biden, 81.
The former vice president and longtime senator’s verbal miscues and fragile appearance have sparked a national debate about his mental chops, provided fodder for his critics and muddied his reelection message.
The situation has made it harder for him to dispel concerns about whether he has four more years of presidential fuel and enough mojo left to fire up core Democratic constituencies, namely apathetic young and minority voters.
“A key to his reelection will be whether he can bring back home those wavering voters,” said Mark J. Rozell, a political science professor at George Mason University.
Indeed, Mr. Biden could lose his reelection hopes in cities such as Detroit and Philadelphia if Black voters do not flood the polls for him.
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Mr. Trump, 78, has led in the battleground states and has shown signs of gaining Black and Hispanic support.
Buoyed by the unyielding support of MAGA loyalists ready to run through a wall for him, Mr. Trump has emerged relatively unscathed from his conviction for falsifying business records to cover up hush money payments to an adult film star in 2016.
Team Trump received a surge of donations after the conviction.
Americans trust Mr. Trump more on key issues, including the economy and immigration, which he has made the centerpiece of his campaign.
Polls have also shown that three-plus years into the Biden experience, more voters take a nostalgic view of Mr. Trump’s time in office. A Washington Post survey released this week found that more swing state voters trust Mr. Trump to combat threats to democracy.
Still, Mr. Trump can’t shake doubts about whether his unconventional behavior and pugilistic instincts will cripple his attempts to woo fence-sitters. Can he set that all aside and deliver a disciplined, Reaganesque message centered on the question: Are you better off than you were four years ago?
“The challenge for Trump is to not remind people — especially the people in the middle — that he will be causing them stress every single day, and so his challenge is to draw a clear comparison between the Biden four years and the Trump four years,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “That is it. It is that simple.”
The race dynamics are encapsulated in a recent Marquette Law School Poll that showed Mr. Biden has seized Mr. Trump’s lead among Wisconsin registered voters.
It also showed something that activists have seen: Voters are far less enthusiastic about the election than at this point in 2020.
“This is one of the least engaged electorates I can remember in recent history,” said Matt Moreno, chair of the Waukesha County Democratic Party in Wisconsin. “A lot of regular voters are not dialed in yet.”
Mr. Trump’s supporters, however, are intensely engaged.
He holds a 61% to 39% edge over Mr. Biden with voters who are “very enthusiastic” about voting this fall. Mr. Biden has a 65% to 33% edge over Mr. Trump with voters who are “not at all enthusiastic.”
The survey also underscored the potential impact of third-party and independent candidates in battleground states.
In that case, Mr. Trump has a 43% to 40% lead over Mr. Biden. Independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West garnered 8% and 4% support, respectively. Libertarian Chase Oliver and Green Party candidate Jill Stein each received 2%.
According to a running tally from The New York Times, the Green Party, which expects to tap Ms. Stein as its nominee at its August convention, is on the ballot in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
Mr. Kennedy is on the ballot in Michigan and says he has filed the signatures needed to gain ballot access in Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Mr. Oliver, who won the Libertarian nomination in May, is set to appear on the ballot in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
Mr. West has yet to qualify for the ballot in a battleground state.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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