Contain or confront: Former U.S. officials debate right approach to China

NEWS AND ANALYSIS:

The Biden administration’s strategy of seeking to manage geopolitical competition with China is not working and should be replaced with a policy of achieving victory, according to Matthew Pottinger, former White House deputy national security adviser.

“We need to define, first of all, pursuit of victory as opposed to merely managing a competition,” Mr. Pottinger said at a conference hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations on Monday. “Managing a competition sounds a lot like the 1970s’ detente policies that I think it turned out to fail when they were pursued against the Soviet Union.”

The conference brought together Mr. Pottinger and two other former national security officials to debate the best U.S. strategy for confronting an increasingly hostile China.

Elbridge Colby, a former deputy assistant defense secretary in the Trump administration, disagreed with Mr. Pottinger on the likelihood of achieving a complete victory over China.

“Victory is never final in the sense that, what was the victory with the Soviet Union? Well, it was great that we won. … But of course, now we have Vladimir Putin, which is actually worse than what we faced certainly under Mikhail Gorbachev,” Mr. Colby said, describing himself as a “conservative realist” who also views the current detente policy toward Beijing as “dangerous.”

Mr. Colby said he favors a more modest strategy of preventing China from becoming a global hegemonic power through methods like the containment policy toward the former Soviet Union.

Bonny Lin, a former senior adviser for China and Taiwan in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, told the conference that U.S. strategy toward China should not seek regime change in Beijing. The United States is limited in its ability to influence internal Chinese Communist Party policies and therefore ousting the party should not be a major U.S. focus, she argued.

“Our priority should be affecting China’s external behavior, and to the extent we can hope for a change internally within China … but that shouldn’t be our priority,” she said.

Mr. Pottinger said winning the competition with China does not mean either war or capitulation, but something in between.

“But it’s very much aimed at ensuring that Beijing becomes persuaded that it cannot win either a hot war against us or our friends, nor can it win a cold war which it’s already waging against us and our friends,” he said.

Mr. Pottinger said his favored strategy does mean seeking regime change in Beijing. But if China’s current leaders can be persuaded, as were Soviet leaders in the late 1980s, that they will be unable to win the current cold war, the result might produce a change of government in China.

Successive U.S. administrations during the Cold War provided a model for dealing with China, because the policies did not seek a stalemate in relations with Moscow.

“Those strategies did not call for a stalemate. They called for undermining the sources of Soviet aggression, and we should be doing the same with respect to China,” Mr. Pottinger said.

Chinese Embassy lobbies Hill against DNI report on leaders’ corruption

A Chinese Embassy official recently wrote to Congress to lobby against legislation requiring Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines to produce a report on corruption and hidden wealth held by Chinese leaders through their relatives, including President Xi Jinping.

Wang Xijun, a counselor at the Chinese Embassy in Washington, wrote to the office of Rep. Andy Ogles, Tennessee Republican, criticizing legislation mandating the DNI report. The DNI report on Chinese corruption was due to Congress in December under a defense bill signed into law in late 2022. A DNI spokesman has said intelligence analysts are working on the legally required report.

Mr. Ogles recently introduced additional legislation that would give the DNI six more months to produce the report and also require officials to testify on the issue.

Companion legislation was introduced in the Senate by Sen. Marco Rubio, Florida Republican, and could pass in some form in the coming days, a congressional aide said.

“This will serve as another campaign to slander and defame the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese leadership,” Mr. Wang wrote on June 18, adding the pending report “seriously challenges China’s political red line and constitutes a blatant political provocation.”

Mr. Wang said the Chinese Communist Party “serves the people” and produced “two miracles” — rapid economic growth and social stability.

The Chinese diplomat said U.S. efforts to undermine the legitimacy of the party will produce “a mistaken policy” and sour U.S.-China relations.

“We hereby urge Congressman Ogles to stop pushing forward this act,” he said.

The Congressional Research Service, in a report previewing the forthcoming DNI report, stated earlier this month that senior Chinese leaders, including Mr. Xi, are engaged in corruption and hiding hundreds of millions of dollars in wealth by using relatives to disguise their illicit activities.

The CRS report stated that Mr. Xi by 2012 had amassed at least $376 million in company investments, an indirect 18% stake in a rare-earth mineral company worth more than $311 million, and $20.2 million holdings in a technology company. The investments were made through relatives, a common practice used in hiding forbidden wealth and corruption by Chinese communist officials in China.

The DNI report is expected to undermine Mr. Xi’s large-scale anti-corruption campaign that included investigations into millions of ruling party members.

Since 2012, 266 members of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee were ousted, allegedly for corruption. Among them were Defense Minister Li Shangfu, also a former member of the Central Military Commission, and Foreign Minister Qin Gang, the CRS report said.

House leader opposes Pentagon chief of staff appointee

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul said this week that he opposes Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s appointment of Derek Chollet, previously a top aide to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, to be his chief of staff.

“I am incredibly disappointed in Secretary Austin for making the ill-advised decision to name Derek Chollet as the Pentagon’s chief of staff,” Mr. McCaul said in a statement. Mr. Chollet “is absolutely unqualified for this position,” the Texas Republican added.

“His lack of candor in my committee’s transcribed interview together with his flippant public remarks about his work at the State Department make it clear he is neither a serious person nor is he trustworthy,” Mr. McCaul said. “With the many national security threats this country is facing, we need real leadership at the Defense Department — and Derek Chollet is not that. I strongly urge the secretary to reconsider this move.”

Mr. Chollet was nominated for the key position of undersecretary of defense for policy. But the nomination was stalled in the Senate over what Mr. McCaul said were issues related to Mr. Chollet’s role in the problematic U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Mr. McCaul “urged the Senate not to approve Chollet’s nomination in February after his lack of candor in his transcribed interview with the committee,” the Foreign Affairs Committee said in a statement.

China’s military increasing warplane, warship activities around Taiwan

China’s People’s Liberation Army is ramping up military activities around Taiwan by sending tens of warplanes and warships around the island, according to the Taiwan Ministry of Defense.

On June 21, a total of 41 Chinese military aircraft flew around the island and entered the air defense identification zone. Seven warships were also detected.

In the days after, 15 aircraft and six warships entered the zone on June 22; and 23 aircraft and seven warships were spotted on June 23.

On Monday, a total of 17 aircraft and eight warships were detected, and on Tuesday, 18 aircraft and six vessels were monitored.

By Wednesday, an additional 26 aircraft including J-16 fighters, Y-8 surveillance aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles were tracked.

The ministry said on social media that “PLA aircraft frequently disturb over #Taiwan Strait, and #ROCAF maintains constant vigilance.”

“The F-16V fighters undergo periodic inspections, involving an almost complete disassembly of the aircraft for checks. It’s tough work, but that’s what it takes to keep our skies safe,” the ministry said.

The Defense Ministry said on Wednesday that China conducted a “joint combat readiness patrol” near the island.

Beijing, meanwhile, has upped tensions with Taiwan by announcing plans to hunt down and execute what it calls Taiwan independence “separatists.”

The increased tensions come as China seeks to pressure the new pro-independence government of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te.

“National law enforcement and judicial organs will pursue all Taiwan independence diehards who test the law to the end, no matter where they are, and severely punish them in accordance with the law,” Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, told reporters in Beijing.

“The state punishes the crimes of secession and incitement to secession by ‘Taiwan independence’ diehards in accordance with the law. There is a solid legal foundation and sufficient legal basis for this,” Ms. Zhu said.

• Contact Bill Gertz on X @BillGertz.