The American people’s presidential debate

OPINION:

The news media’s analysts and commentators are preparing to argue over every detail of Thursday night’s presidential debate, but the American people are entering debate week with strong, widely held feelings.

A new poll of 2,000 registered from America’s New Majority Project taken June 20-23 shows Americans are remarkably clear about a number of issues and attitudes.

The biggest surprise to me was the depth of feeling that this election really matters.

An amazing 94% of those polled said this election is important to America’s survival (77.5% felt it was very important). That is a staggering consensus, and survival is a strong word.

The numbers were still astonishing at the personal level: 83% of those polled said the election would be important to their personal survival (nearly half, 49.4%, said it was very important to their personal survival).

This figure is so high because Americans are polarized over what threatens them. While 55.4% said America could not survive four more years of President Biden, a slightly smaller 50.4% said America could not survive four more years of former President Donald Trump.

From a slightly different perspective, 40.3% did not think four more years of Mr. Biden was a threat (28.8% felt this strongly). Mr. Trump had a somewhat greater support base since 45.7% rejected the idea that his reelection would be a problem (35.9% strongly repudiated the concept).

So on the dire survival standard, Mr. Trump has a general advantage of 5.4 percentage points. Among strong supporters, he has a 7.1-point advantage.

Further, by 70% to 29.6%, Americans feel things are going in the wrong direction. Fifty-seven percent disapprove of Mr. Biden’s performance as president. Only 43% approve of his work in the White House.

Republicans are winning the generic ballot test 45% to 43%. Mr. Trump also continues to outperform Mr. Biden by 45.7% to 44.5%. In a six-way race including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, Jill Stein and Chase Oliver, Mr. Trump’s margin increases slightly to 40.3% over President Biden’s 38.8%.

Despite our divisions, Americans are still overwhelmingly unified in their affection for the United States. By 84.8% to 12.8%, Americans agree that they are “proud to be an American.” That is an almost 7-to-1 commitment to patriotism.

An even bigger majority (90.4%) agree that they are “grateful to be an American.” Our foreign adversaries should note that despite the turmoil and turbulence of our lively democracy, we are bound together by deep and compelling feelings about America. Patriotism is alive and well.

This patriotism leads 81.6% of Americans to agree that the principles contained in the Declaration of Independence are relevant today. By nearly 6-to-1, Americans believe that being endowed by our Creator with the rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness is still relevant today.

This sense of patriotism rejects the modern effort to rewrite history. By 78.1% to 15.3%, Americans agreed that the Founding Fathers should be honored today for what they accomplished despite participating in slavery.

There are also surprisingly large margins on key questions.

By 78% to 13%, Americans believe patients and doctors should have the power in American health care — not the government. Some 65% feel this strongly.

Similarly, 72.9% to 18% of Americans believe parents should have the final say in their children’s education (59.6% feel this strongly). This is a remarkable repudiation of the teachers unions and the establishment of education bureaucracies.

People are increasingly fed up and worried about crime. By 73.4% to 17.9%, Americans believe we need tough penalties for criminals and drug dealers to keep the public safe (61.5% strongly).

The American people want the United States to pursue energy independence — including natural gas and oil (67.9% to 21.2%).

In foreign policy, Americans strongly prefer putting America’s interests before those of other countries — 74.6% to 16.9%. A full 60.5% strongly favor an America first position.

The emerging consensus on illegal immigration is clear. When asked if illegal immigration is good for the United States, 72.8% say no (60.6% strongly). Only 18.6% say that illegal immigration is good for America. That is almost 4-to-1 against illegal immigration.

Americans are evenly divided on abortion. The poll presented this statement: “Abortion is a difficult issue because two lives are involved. Our goal should be to support women in difficult situations so that there are fewer abortions in America. Ultimately we would like to reach a point where abortion is unthinkable except in medical emergencies.”

By 51.2% to 36.4%, Americans agreed (26.6% strongly agreed while 17.1% strongly disagreed).

Abortion will clearly be the most contentious issue Thursday night but not the most important issue to voters.

When presented with a list of issues, only 16.7% ranked abortion as No. 1. The top-ranked choice was inflation and rising costs (48.9%). Then, 21.8% were worried about border security, and 20.9% were worried about jobs and economic growth.

While abortion will get a lot of attention from the media and the campaigns, economic issues and the border crisis matter more to most Americans.

It will be interesting to see if the moderators and the candidates talk about establishment Washington political hot topics or discuss what matters to most Americans.

Mr. Trump is entering this debate with political wind at his back. Mr. Biden represents a performance and ideology most Americans do not support.

There is a big opportunity for Mr. Trump to focus on the American people’s concerns and not on the news media’s myopia and isolated self-importance.

• For more commentary from Newt Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com. And subscribe to the “Newt’s World” podcast.