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PARIS — Staging a massive international sporting event such as the Olympic Games is more than enough of a summer project for most countries, but French President Emmanuel Macron is risking chaos and uncertainty in the halls of power and on the streets with his call for snap parliamentary elections before the world gathers in Paris next month.
Although some clear favorites have emerged for medals in swimming, track and field, and gymnastics, political handicappers say no one is sure of the outcome before the parliamentary vote begins Sunday. The far-right National Rally (NR) is leading the polls after dominating European elections earlier this month.
“June 30 could be the second wave of the tsunami,” National Rally party chief Marine Le Pen told French newspaper Le Monde in an interview recently. “The first wave is strong; the second will carry everything.”
Mr. Macron shocked France and its European Union allies on June 10 by calling snap elections for this Sunday and July 7. A day earlier, the National Rally won 30 of France’s 81 seats in the European Parliament, more than double that of Mr. Macron’s centrist coalition of parties.
The audacious idea was clearly to rally centrist parties to unite to prevent a National Rally victory, but the gambit baffled the entire political establishment.
“Macron’s decision is mind-boggling. Even some of his closest advisers and supporters have had a hard time explaining it,” said Karim Emile Bitar, a political analyst at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations in Paris, a think tank.
Others said Mr. Macron, fed up with the violent opposition to his policies, such as pension reform, essentially threw a tantrum. The former investment banker became the youngest president in French history in 2017. Now in his second term with seven years in power, he has lost his luster and his dreams of revamping the country’s sclerotic government and business sectors have been blocked at multiple turns.
The success of the far right, which rejects many of Mr. Macron’s signature policies to make France a leading player in the European Union and on the global stage, rankles even more.
“Macron is someone who has rarely lost and is finding it difficult to acknowledge that there’s an overwhelming rejection of his policies,” Mr. Bitar said. “It’s a sort of narcissistic injury that he’s trying to heal.”
By contrast, Ms. Le Pen is credited with cleansing her party of its most extremist elements, including her father, and exploiting incumbent fatigue with Mr. Macron to make her party more acceptable to a growing slice of the French electorate.
“In three words, we are ready,” telegenic National Rally President Jordan Bardella told a press conference Monday. “Seven long years of Macronism has weakened the country.”
Mr. Bardella proposes policies to revive the economy and reduce inflation, fight crime in the streets, tighten citizenship laws and cut “spending that favors immigration.”
Losing the left
Analysts said many French voters who are fed up with the centrist policies of past governments are swinging to the extremes. That might hurt Mr. Macron because the president was gambling on the disunity among the various parties representing leftist voters to save some of his party’s seats in the next Parliament, observers said.
In a surprise announcement on June 14, the four main left-wing parties — the populist La France Insoumise (LFI), the Socialist Party, the Greens and the Communist Party — announced an agreement to run together. The alliance, dubbed the New Popular Front (NFP), echoes a left-wing coalition that won the 1936 general election.
Mr. Macron called the alliance “unnatural.” He criticized the moderate Socialists for aligning with LFI, which opponents have labeled “antisemitic” for its support of Palestinians and its accusations of genocide in the Gaza Strip. As in the U.S., the casualty rate among Palestinian civilians has made Israel unpopular with many young French voters.
Ms. Le Pen and the National Rally are luring voters who have voted in the past for the center parties and those on the fringe. Immigration and social values are proving potent issues.
Alex, 20, who declined to give his last name and who studies engineering in central France, said he previously supported the nationalist Reconquete party but changed his vote to the National Rally during the European elections to strengthen the far-right’s chances.
“Their ideas are less radical [than Reconquete]. … I voted strategically to give as many seats as possible to the far right,” he said.
Besides, he said, he likes Mr. Bardella, who would become prime minister should his party gain a majority and who has shown an ability to connect with young voters.
French conservatives have their own problems uniting. Some worry that Ms. Le Pen’s party is too radical to trust with power in Paris.
Reconquete and the center-right Republicans, once a main establishment party that held power for decades, have been split over supporting the National Rally. “The left-wing alliance was made easily. Meanwhile, the right is a mess, and that scares me,” Alex said.
Observers say a bigger question is whether the National Rally’s win during European elections was a protest vote or whether it has developed deep-rooted support in the nation over the past decade. Some observers say Mr. Macron’s gamble will blow up in his face.
“Twenty years ago, far-right voters were clearly and purely expressing a protest vote,” Mr. Bitar said. “But now, there are voters who genuinely adhere to the National Rally’s core ideas: A rejection of immigration, a growing fear of Islam, and a feeling that globalization is weakening the European middle class.”
Fears of the right
Paris art gallery manager Henriette, 30, said she would vote against the right to keep them from power, as did voters in 2022 when Mr. Macron defeated Ms. Le Pen in the second round.
Henriette did not vote in the EU elections but said she would vote for Mr. Macron’s Renaissance party “to create a dam against the far right.” To her and others, the far right’s rise to power in France would be unthinkable.
Mr. Macron’s top allies have fanned the flames of fear over the consequences of a National Rally victory.
“I fear for order, for relations between citizens, for serenity, for civil peace,” Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told the France Info radio network Monday. “I don’t see the [National Rally] as a factor of stability and peace. I see it as a factor of disorder and violence.”
Whichever party wins the parliamentary votes, relations with the United States and Europe, the handling of the war in Ukraine and other foreign policy matters won’t likely change in the short term despite the National Rally’s strong relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and its criticism of France’s support for Ukraine. Mr. Macron will remain president until his term ends in 2027, and foreign policy is the president’s responsibility.
Polls do not expect the National Rally to win an absolute majority. A survey of voters released Thursday by Ifop-Fiducial for LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio showed that the National Rally led with 34% of the vote, followed by an alliance of left-wing parties with 29% and Mr. Macron’s coalition with 22%.
What will happen after the votes are counted and coalition politicking begins is a mystery.
Mr. Bardella of the National Rally has ruled out governing with coalition partners, reflecting fears among Ms. Le Pen’s supporters that the traditional opposition party could encounter trouble if forced to govern.
“I won’t be an aide to the president,” Mr. Bardella told French newspaper Le Parisien. “To govern, I need an absolute majority.”
In the EU elections, far-right parties surged in major powers such as France, Germany and Italy, but they are likely not a good barometer of the upcoming French votes.
“You cannot use the European election results to predict the outcome of the general election,” said Pierre Manenti, an author, historian and former Macron administration official in the Interior Ministry. “However, it would take a fortuneteller to predict what the ruling coalition will look like and what program it will govern with.”
In the absence of a workable majority, “France risks becoming ungovernable” for the final years of Mr. Macron’s term, Mr. Bitar said. “What’s also likely to happen is a third round [of elections] on the streets with massive demonstrations from both sides that could jeopardize the Olympics.”
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