- The Washington Times - Sunday, June 23, 2024

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SEOUL, South Korea — Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Sunday broadcast a mixed message of goodwill and defiance six days after a violent clash with Chinese forces sent tensions soaring even higher near a disputed, flash point reef in the South China Sea.

The Philippine leader made the remarks after a flight with his top commanders to the western island province of Palawan, which faces the hotly contested and heavily trafficked waterway. He met there to award medals to navy personnel who clashed battled the Chinese coast guard Monday as they attempted to deliver food and other supplies to the outpost on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal.

Mr. Marcos’ messaging should reassure those who fear that the U.S. could be dragged into the fight, but may not be enough to restrain an increasingly assertive China.

“We are not in the business to instigate wars,” Mr. Marcos said Sunday. “In defending the nation, we stay true to our Filipino nature that we would like to settle all these issues peacefully.”

Images published by Manila on X showed the Philippine president in a khaki jacket beside a be-medaled Philippine serviceman who brandishing his heavily bandaged fist — the result of a wound received last Monday.

Mr. Marcos praised the restraint of personnel involved in last week’s incident, which took place off the rusted hulk of a World War II-era landing ship, the Sierra Madre. That vessel was deliberately grounded by Manila in 1999 to assert sovereignty over the shoal and has operated as a de facto outpost for Philippine forces ever since. Resupply missions to the base now run a Chinese gauntlet.

While trying to calm the waters with his much larger and better-armed opponent, Mr. Marcos added a warning in his remarks, warning, “Our calm and peaceful disposition should not be mistaken for acquiescence.”

The U.S. and its allies strongly condemned China’s conduct in last week’s clash, and Washington and Manila have a mutual defense treaty. But U.S. forces are unlikely to join the fight and Mr. Marcos’ nonconfrontational messaging Sunday mirrored that of his advisers, who last week, talked down the latest incident.

“We’re not yet ready to classify this as an armed attack,” said Philippine Presidential Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin Bersamin on Friday.

Analysts say Chinese momentum is not slowing and the Philippines’ options are running out.

“While Manila has held its nerve against Beijing’s mounting pressure tactics and holds the moral high ground in the South China Sea, it’s not clear yet that it has a viable strategy to counter Beijing’s maritime juggernaut,” wrote Euan Graham in the Australian publication The Strategist. “China is obviously willing to escalate.”

Noting Mr. Marcos’ earlier mild statements after Chinese vessels fired water cannons at Philippines vessels near the shoal, Mr. Graham, a senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, wrote: “It is clear that China will not be shamed into better behavior for the sake of its reputation.”

Looking ahead, Mr. Graham suggested, “a joint Philippines-US operation to resupply the Sierra Madre would send a firm signal of deterrence and alliance cohesion to China. But this is ultimately a decision and a request for the Philippines to make.”

In last Monday’s incident, eight Chinese speed boats swarmed two Philippine inflatable vessels, video published online showed. Armored and helmeted Chinese coastguard were seen brandishing bayonets, an ax and a machete as they intercepted members of Manila’s Navy Special Operations Group on the resupply mission.

As the Chinese hammered the Philippine boats with what appeared to be metal pipes, troops on both sides filmed the chaos with smartphones.

One Philippine serviceman lost his thumb, and the Chinese also grabbed eight automatic rifles.

“We made a conscious and deliberate choice to remain in the path of peace,” Mr. Marcos said Sunday. “History itself can tell that we have never, never in the history of the Philippines yielded to any foreign power.”

China’s state press over the weekend said the South China Sea territorial disputes — which involve states across East Asia — should be resolved by the countries themselves, and criticized Mr. Marcos for what they said was an attempt to drag the U.S. into the bilateral  dispute.

“If [the Marcos government] can return to reasonable negotiation rather than pointless provocations on the sea, the nightmare will end immediately,” Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, told the state-controlled Global Times news website over the weekend.

• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.

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