Biden’s claim that Trump is a threat to democracy could backfire, analysts say

The centerpiece of President Biden’s reelection campaign is labeling former President Donald Trump a threat to democracy, but critics say Mr. Biden’s attacks on the presumptive Republican nominee also pose risks to American freedoms.

In a series of speeches, Mr. Biden has apocalyptically warned that Mr. Trump and his followers would dismantle democracy if he wins the election. The source of such concern, Mr. Biden says, is Mr. Trump’s insistence that the 2020 presidential election was stolen, which culminated in violence at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, when a pro-Trump mob stormed the building.

Mr. Biden also has accused his predecessor of embracing authoritarian language, including Mr. Trump’s claim that he would be a dictator on “Day One.” Mr. Trump has insisted he spoke in jest.

“Here we are in 2024, and what we’re fighting for is clear. It’s freedom — in the literal sense — freedom, democracy, America,” Mr. Biden said at a June campaign fundraiser in Virginia. “The threat Trump poses would be greater in a second term than it was in his first term.”

At the fundraiser, Mr. Biden mentioned Mr. Trump 17 times, “freedom” eight times and democracy four times. He mentioned the economy only twice and inflation three times.

Historians and politicians say democracy is safe. They note that the presidential election is being held on time, participation rates are healthy and federal and local governments are stable and functioning as the U.S. Constitution has intended.

Under Mr. Biden’s watch, Congress has passed several significant bills with largely bipartisan support, including legislation to tighten gun laws and bolster computer chip manufacturing.

Never in U.S. history, including during the Civil War, had a presidential candidate declared democracy was on the ballot until Mr. Biden began his rhetoric ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.

Jim Gilmore, a former Republican governor of Virginia, said Mr. Biden’s rhetoric threatens democracy because it raises doubts in voters’ minds about the security of the American system.

“It’s very unhealthy to say the loss of democracy is possible because it’s not,” he said. “It is a scare tactic, but it worries me when Biden talks about these things because it plants doubts in the American people, and that opens the door to all kinds of mischief.”

Mr. Trump and allies have sought to flip the script in recent weeks and argue that Mr. Biden poses a greater challenge to democracy.

“And you know, they have misinformation — ‘Donald Trump is a threat to democracy’ — it’s just words,” Mr. Trump told Fox News. “[Biden] doesn’t even know what it means. But it’s like their slogan, ‘I’m a threat to democracy.’ I’m the opposite. They’re the threat to democracy.”

Sen. Roger Marshall, Kansas Republican and a stalwart Trump ally wrote an op-ed in Newsweek this year arguing that Mr. Biden poses a greater threat to democracy.

Historian Craig Shirley listed ways in which he says Mr. Biden has subverted democracy to advance his agenda. He noted that Mr. Biden refused to enforce immigration laws enacted by Congress, mandated vaccines for service members and federal employees, and ignored the Supreme Court’s declaration that his student debt relief plan was unconstitutional.

After the court nullified the plan, Mr. Biden sought to circumvent the decision by either expanding or relaxing laws governing student debt repayment.

“The left never says how Donald Trump is a threat to democracy,” Mr. Shirley said. “I can make a case that Joe Biden is a threat to democracy with his ignoring 17 laws governing the border and the Supreme Court.”

Mr. Gilmore said Mr. Biden’s criticism of the Supreme Court for rulings that overturned Roe v. Wade and struck down his student debt forgiveness plan is most concerning.

“There has been a full-fledged attack on the Supreme Court, which is a coequal branch of government,” he said. “When they say Biden can’t forgive student debt and he ignores them, that sends a message to the American people that the law doesn’t matter.”

Recent polls show that Mr. Biden’s message about Mr. Trump is reaching people who already oppose the former president but isn’t convincing undecided voters.

An NBC News survey released in April found that “threats to democracy” (16%) ranked behind inflation (23%) and immigration (22%) as the most important issue voters say is facing the country.

Emerson College’s poll released last month revealed that Biden voters rank “threats to democracy” (19%) second only to the economy (27%) as the most important issue facing the United States. The same poll found that Trump voters put the economy (39%) and immigration (37%) far ahead of “threats to democracy” (4%). Undecided voters overwhelmingly ranked the economy (50%) as their top issue.

“Biden is speaking to the people who already agree with him,” said Robert Rowland, who teaches political rhetoric at the University of Kansas. “It doesn’t seem likely to appeal to voters who are potentially reachable. It only activates Democratic partisans, not the voters Biden needs to win the six states that are likely going to decide the election.”

Mr. Rowland said Mr. Biden’s strategy of emphasizing that Mr. Trump threatens democracy could backfire by reinforcing the former president’s narrative that he is standing up for ordinary people against the elites. He compared it to Hillary Clinton’s labeling of Trump supporters “a basket of deplorables” during the 2016 election campaign, which stoked anger among Republicans and many Democrats and was blamed in part for her electoral loss.

“I don’t understand why Biden is focusing his attacks on this, not the chaos and incompetence during the Trump administration,” he said.

Mr. Biden is hemorrhaging support among Black voters, and polls show that the threat to democracy argument is not registering. A Reuters/Ipsos poll last month found that Black voters were less worried than their White counterparts about a presidential candidate stealing an election or state legislatures overturning a result. Mr. Biden desperately needs the Black vote to win reelection.

Republicans aren’t the only ones who have turned Mr. Biden’s argument against him. Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said in April that Mr. Biden may pose a greater threat to democracy than Mr. Trump.

He said the Biden administration was “censoring” him and weaponizing federal agencies because of its push to monitor social media platforms for medical misinformation. Mr. Kennedy is a longtime skeptic about the safety of vaccines.

“Him trying to overthrow the election clearly is a threat to democracy,” Mr. Kennedy said of Mr. Trump. “But the question was, who is a worse threat to democracy, and what I would say is … I’m not going to answer that question, but I can argue that President Biden is.”

He backtracked several days later by saying that neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Biden is a threat to democracy.

Rep. Dean Phillips, a Minnesota Democrat who challenged Mr. Biden in the primary, suggested in December that Mr. Biden was a threat to democracy because of his inability to get his name on Democratic primary ballots in some states.

Mr. Gilmore said attacks raising questions about the resilience of American democracy are “irresponsible.”

“The Constitution is intact. The separation of powers is intact, and it is very unhealthy to suggest that the loss of democracy is possible because it’s not,” he said.