- The Washington Times - Monday, June 17, 2024

Former President Donald Trump is hardening his stranglehold on Iowa, sparking a fresh round of questions about President Biden’s appeal across middle America and Rust Belt states that will decide his political fate.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Mr. Trump has a 50% to 32% lead over Mr. Biden among likely voters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. captures 9%.

For Mr. Biden, that marks a dip in support from the 2020 presidential election when Mr. Trump notched a 53% to 45% win in Iowa. It also follows an emerging pattern in nearby states.

Frank Luntz, a GOP pollster, said the new Des Moines Register poll, which has been the gold standard in the state, raises questions about how the Biden message is resonating across the region. He said the findings are “bad news for Biden in more competitive Midwestern states, like Wisconsin and Michigan.”

Democrats have ceded Iowa to Republicans in the presidential race. Still, Mr. Biden’s struggle to recreate levels of support akin to 2020 is also apparent in the three states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — that are must-wins for him to stay in the White House.

According to The Real Clear Politics average of polls, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are neck-and-neck in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania less than five months from Election Day.

At this point four years ago, Mr. Biden led Mr. Trump by 8 points in Michigan, 5 points in Wisconsin and almost 6 points in Pennsylvania.

The Biden campaign is hoping to get an uptick in support from voters turned off by Mr. Trump’s recent conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to cover up hush money paid before the 2016 election.

Since the May 30 conviction, polling has been sparse across those Rust Belt battleground states.

National polls, however, have shown a sliver of the electorate is rethinking their support of Mr. Trump and a slice of independents are less inclined to support him following the conviction.

Angling to tap into the blowback, the Biden campaign unveiled a new “Character Matters” television ad that is part of a $50 million ad campaign in swing states.

“This election is between a convicted criminal who’s only out for himself and a president who is fighting for your family,” the ad narrator says.

Mr. Trump maintains Mr. Biden weaponized the justice system against him, a charge Democrats say is bogus and undermines faith in the justice system.

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is expected to sprinkle that message in with warnings about illegal immigration at campaign rallies Tuesday in Racine, Wisconsin, and Saturday in Philadelphia.

The stops come days after Mr. Trump held a roundtable at a Black church in Detroit as part of his push to make inroads with Black voters in Michigan that have been driven the success of Democrats in the state.

“He’s been the worst president for Black people,” Mr. Trump said at the church.

• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.

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