District-switching Lauren Boebert takes massive lead in Colorado primary poll

HIGHLANDS RANCH, Colo. — Rep. Lauren Boebert’s lead-up to her reelection campaign was nothing short of disastrous, yet the pistol-packing, theater-vaping, district-hopping Republican is still the candidate to beat.

A poll released this month by Florida-based Kaplan Strategies shows that 40% of voters surveyed plan to support Ms. Boebert in the primary election Tuesday to represent Colorado’s 4th Congressional District. None of her five Republican rivals drew more than 5%.

Dick Wadhams, a former Colorado Republican Party chairman and Republican political consultant, said the congresswoman’s actual support may be slightly below 40%, but she is still the clear front-runner.

“I don’t know if it’s 40, but I do believe she’s at least in the 30s, and in that large field — there are six candidates total — it really does work to her favor with her name-ID advantage,” Mr. Wadhams said. “And she’s got a pretty big financial advantage, too. I think those two things really benefit her.”

Given that the district is the most conservative in the state, the winner of the Republican primary becomes the instant favorite for the general election in November. In the 2020 presidential race, 58% of the district voted for Republican Donald Trump and 39% supported Democrat Joseph R. Biden.

Ms. Boebert leads the field just months after moving to the district and after a year of calamitous headlines centered on her personal life. That speaks to the power of name recognition and fundraising in a crowded field and to voters’ willingness to forgive and forget.

Ms. Boebert announced in December that she would switch from the 3rd to the 4th Congressional District after eking out a meager 546-vote win in 2022 against Democrat Adam Frisch, who has raised a whopping $13 million in his bid to capture the Western Colorado seat in November.

She moved 230 miles from Rifle to Windsor to run for the seat vacated by Republican Ken Buck, who retired in March.

Observers were skeptical that Ms. Boebert’s cowgirl-in-heels image would resonate with the 4th District, which encompasses the rural Eastern Plains, the prosperous suburbs of Douglas County and sections of suburban Weld and Larimer counties.

The Kaplan poll also found that 40% of Republican and unaffiliated voters are undecided, meaning her opponents have a path to the nomination if they can distinguish themselves as her chief rival, which none of them has been able to do.

Logan County Commissioner Jerry Sonnenberg, former state House Minority Leader Mike Lynch, state Rep. Richard Holtorf, former talk show host Deborah Flora, and conservative activist Peter Yu are also seeking the Republican nod.

Mr. Sonnenberg, who has served in the state legislature, won the coveted endorsements of former U.S. Sens. Cory Gardner, Wayne Allard and Hank Brown, but Ms. Boebert snared the biggest endorsement of all: Mr. Trump’s.

In recent televised debates, her opponents have attacked her effectiveness in Congress, her switch of districts and incidents in her personal life.

Ms. Flora, a former conservative talk show host on KNUS-AM and founder of Parents United America, said at the May 29 debate on CBS4, “We’ve seen how Lauren Boebert would represent us: abandoning her neighbors in CD3, missing key votes while chasing cameras, and being in the center of D.C. drama instead of delivering real solutions for the people.”

In September, Ms. Boebert was caught on camera vaping and being groped by her date during a performance at the Denver Center for the Performing Arts. She denied vaping at first and then apologized after video footage showed she did. She said she didn’t recall vaping.

After Mr. Lynch made reference at the May 30 debate on 9News to the “theater incident,” the moderator asked Ms. Boebert whether she wanted to “talk about the theater thing.”

“I certainly have owned up to my night out in Denver. I’ve gone on that public apology tour, and I’m grateful for the mercy and grace that has been shown, but I’m not going to continue to live life in shame and be beat up on this,” Ms. Boebert said.

Not helping is her ongoing family drama.

Ex-husband Jayson Boebert accepted a plea deal last week to assault stemming from two domestic altercations in January.

Her eldest son, Tyler Boebert, now 19, was arrested in February on a felony theft charge over a “string of vehicle trespass and property thefts in Rifle,” according to Rifle police.

Mr. Wadhams said, “All those things in terms of liabilities are going to be problems for her in those suburban areas.”

“They don’t like the DCPA fiasco,” he said. “They don’t like the standing up at the State of the Union and yelling at the president. All that stuff. She’s going to win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she doesn’t win by nearly the margin she should.”

Ms. Boebert has sought to rehabilitate her image through strong fundraising. According to the latest Federal Election Commission filings, her campaign has raised about $4 million. No other Republican has collected more than $500,000.

That cash advantage has allowed Ms. Boebert to air TV ads aimed at suburban women, including a spot in which her youngest son, Roman Boebert, offers tips on what to include in her next campaign commercial.

“That’s easy, Mom. Why don’t you just tell them about how you carry your gun and always fight for freedom?” the boy asks.

Ms. Boebert responds with a smile: “Well, I think they already know that.”

Ballots were sent on June 3 in the Colorado all-mail election. A special election to fill the remainder of Mr. Buck’s term on Tuesday will pit Democrat Trisha Calvarese against Republican Greg Lopez.