KIRYAT SHMONA, Israel — A potential hot war is brewing in Israel’s north as the U.S. and its allies struggle to impose a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip.
Despite the drain of troops and resources in the fight against Hamas, Israel Defense Forces officials say they are ready to open a second front against Lebanon’s Hezbollah if ordered by the government.
“We are approaching the point where a decision will have to be made, and the IDF is prepared and very ready for this decision,” IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said on a recent visit to northern Israel, where he met with military commanders and the regional fire brigades fighting fires caused by Hezbollah. “We have been striking here for eight months, and Hezbollah is paying a very, very high price.”
He said, “Hezbollah has increased its attacks in recent days.”
The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under increasing pressure to act against Hezbollah’s escalating attacks along Israel’s northern border. On June 5, an Israeli soldier was killed and another 10 wounded in a Hezbollah drone attack on a field near the northern town of Hurfeish.
The Iran-backed Shiite militant movement attacked an IDF base near the city of Kiryat Shmona on June 1, and Hezbollah rocket fire caused large fires to break out across the border on June 3.
Hezbollah has been exchanging missile barrages with Israel since the Hamas rampage on Oct. 7 ignited yet another Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Militants are increasingly using precision drones to strike locations in northern Israel, forcing tens of thousands to abandon their homes. Hezbollah has also expanded drone attacks to coastal cities such as Nahariya.
The tempo of attacks is increasing. A study by the Alma Research and Education Center, which covers threats to northern Israel, concluded that Hezbollah launched twice as many drone and anti-tank missile attacks in May as in the previous month.
“There were 85 [drone] infiltration incidents in May 2024, up from 42 in April 2024,” the report concluded. June has started with another wave of attacks, and the expectation is that the northern front for Israel will grow hotter by the week.
The Biden administration, which has been eager to prevent the Hamas conflict from igniting a more general regional war, has consistently urged restraint on the Netanyahu government in the clash with Hezbollah.
On June 4, Mr. Netanyahu visited northern Israel to assess the damage caused by the attacks. Two days later, Yossi Shelley, the director of his prime ministerial office, followed him. The Israeli government is investing almost $1 billion in Northern Dawn, a development that is supposed to rehabilitate the area.
“Whoever thinks that they can harm us and we will sit idly by is making a big mistake,” Mr. Netanyahu told reporters during his visit, as reported by the Reuters news service. “We are prepared for a very strong action in the north. In one way or another, we will restore security to the north.”
That same day, Mr. Netanyahu convened an emergency meeting of his wartime Cabinet to consider options to stop the drumbeat of Hezbollah rocket attacks and to push Hezbollah fighters farther from the border. Mr. Netanyahu and his advisers concluded that the threat was real but the time was not right.
“The risks to Israel inherent in a determined assault against Hezbollah — which has been heavily armed by Iran with 150,000 precision-guided rockets and missiles, as well as sophisticated drones and anti-tank weaponry — prompted the Israeli war cabinet to defer a decision on escalation against the militant group,” the Soufan Center, a New York-based think tank, wrote in a briefing Monday. “Other IDF sources indicated that, since October 7, the IDF’s directive from political leaders has been to focus on defeating Hamas in Gaza and avoiding war in Lebanon, adding that changing this policy could have ‘far-reaching consequences.’”
Israel’s military is pushing the envelope even if an all-out shooting war has not erupted. Israeli fighter jets this week struck a major Hezbollah logistics compound deep inside Lebanon after the Lebanese group downed an Israeli drone. The attack is thought to be the deepest IDF strike inside Lebanon so far, more than 80 miles from the Israeli border.
Evacuated
About 80,000 Israelis were evacuated from northern Israel in October when the Hezbollah attacks began, and about 1,000 buildings have been damaged in communities near the Lebanese border. On a recent visit to Kiryat Shmona, the damage was visible from the street, with some apartment blocks pockmarked from shrapnel. Burned cars in one area showed precisely where a Hezbollah rocket had struck.
Mr. Shelley said the government is providing support for the north.
Mr. Netanyahu’s government “is committed to the comprehensive implementation of [Northern Dawn] to rebuild and develop the communities in these complicated times. The decision that was made strengthens the northern communities in the immediate term and is indicative of growth engines for the region,” he said on Thursday.
Many communities along the border of northern Israel are off-limits to visitors because of the danger. IDF engineers using earth-moving equipment, have cut new roads through forests so soldiers and civilians can stay out of the line of fire from Hezbollah.
IDF soldiers on the front line have learned to contend with the enemy’s increasingly sophisticated arsenal. The militants have employed new drones that make a distinctive sound like a “flying lawn mower,” Israeli soldiers report. In addition, the Iran-backed terrorists use anti-tank missiles and rockets.
Israel’s air defense systems, such as the Iron Dome, often intercept Hezbollah attacks. On June 4, however, Hezbollah claimed to target one of the Iron Dome missile launchers, a significant escalation to try to strike at Israel’s defenses. Hezbollah targeted a large surveillance balloon in May and claimed to have shot down four sophisticated Israeli drones over the past several months.
Kiryat Shmona appears nearly deserted. Some soldiers and first responders cluster around the main street of a city that once had 20,000 residents. Only a few small shops are open. Otherwise, the place is a ghost town.
Playgrounds for children sit empty, the swings at rest. Ironically, distinct bird songs punctuate the silence. All the cars have disappeared from the streets.
The situation is the same several miles South of Kiryat Shmona in the Huleh valley.
Most of the communities are deserted. Gas stations, among the few commercial establishments still open, have become gathering places. The coffee shops serve the thousands of soldiers stationed in the area, mostly reservists in their 30s who sometimes get coffee on their way to or from their units.
Many of these men have been on the front line, either here or in Gaza, since Oct. 7. They usually were given several weeks off and then called up again. Although they are on the defensive, many say the time to switch to the offensive against Hezbollah is coming closer by the day.
• Seth J. Frantzman can be reached at srantzman@washingtontimes.com.
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