A version of this story appeared in the daily Threat Status newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive Threat Status delivered directly to your inbox each weekday.
PARIS – Forgive Emmanuel Macron if he’s feeling a little political whiplash.
Just last week, the eyes of the world were on the French president as he oversaw the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings in Normandy with an emotional ceremony involving the last few veterans of that historic battle. Soon afterward, Mr. Macron hosted President Biden for a state dinner full of pomp and circumstance at the Elysee Palace in Paris.
Then, on Sunday, Mr. Macron’s party sustained an electoral defeat so complete that he could be out of a job by this time next month.
The French fracas is just one fallout from the startling gains made by what were once considered fringe “far-right” parties in some of Europe’s biggest, most pro-European Union powers in European Parliament elections that concluded Sunday.
“Sunday’s election results are for seats in the European Parliament, which means there was no direct political impact on Mr. Macron’s government,” Jean Pierre Darnis, a professor of contemporary history at France’s University of Nice and at LUISS University in Rome, told The Washington Times. “The result of the vote was more or less expected. But what wasn’t expected was Macron’s decision to call a snap election.”
The right-wing nationalist National Rally party headed by Mr. Macron’s political nemesis, Marine Le Pen, took 32% of the vote, double the total for Mr. Macron’s Renaissance party.
Mr. Macron’s term ends in 2027, and he could have stayed in office despite the dismal showing. With his approval levels eroding in France, however, the 46-year-old leader evidently felt he could not govern effectively after such a devastating blow.
France was not the only leading EU power to suffer rejection after the four days of votes were tallied.
The Social Democrats of German center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the environmentalist Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats secured less than one-third of the European vote, The Associated Press reported Monday. Mr. Scholz’s party polled only 13.9%, its worst post-World War II showing in a nationwide vote, and the Greens crashed to 11.9% from a peak of 20.5% five years ago.
The far-right Alternative for Democracy, or AfD, once considered far beyond the pale in the German political spectrum, came in second.
The first round of France’s snap elections will be held on June 30, and the second one week later. Analysts say Mr. Macron hopes the vote will shift his way and that smaller parties will come to his side to prevent Ms. Le Pen’s party from winning control in parliament.
In the past, voters have been more likely to cast protest votes in elections for the EU Parliament than in national votes.
In 2002, Ms. Le Pen’s father, nationalist firebrand Jean-Marie Le Pen, edged the high-profile Socialist Party chief Lionel Jospin to make it into a runoff election for president against incumbent President Jacques Chirac. In the second round, Mr. Chirac more than quadrupled his support with political backing from across the political spectrum, and he coasted to victory.
In 2017 and 2022, rival parties again put down their differences to support Mr. Macron against Ms. Le Pen, whose views on migration, Islam, Russia and integration within the European Union have made her a polarizing figure.
Mr. Darnis said that is less likely to happen this time as voters cast ballots for individual candidates for parliament and not for the head of state. The issues, notably immigration and national sovereignty, championed by Ms. Le Pen’s National Rally and other far-right parties are resonating with too many voters.
“If you take the votes of National Rally and the other far-right parties together, they won around 40% of the vote,” Mr. Darnis said. “That means that for Macron to come out ahead, his party would have to gain the support from almost every other party. That seems like a tall order at this point.”
Mr. Macron, a former staffer and government minister under Socialist President Francois Hollande, is no stranger to taking risks — with mixed results.
He ran for president in 2017 in his first-ever political campaign at 39 and won against an experienced field. Mr. Macron also bet hard on persuading Russian President Vladimir Putin not to invade Ukraine. He invited himself to Moscow for a high-stakes tete-a-tete in the Kremlin just two weeks before Russian tanks rolled across the border.
His latest risk may be his biggest yet. If the vote comes close to mirroring Sunday’s results, Mr. Macron’s presidency will be severely crippled, leaving him to limp along until an unpleasant end to his term in 2027.
On the other hand, Mr. Darnis and other analysts say, he could just quit. By calling snap elections, Mr. Macron said he was “giving the decision to the sovereign people.” If those same people reject his party’s leadership twice in one month, leaving could be the only path for him.
The new EU Parliament’s first session starts in mid-July in Strasbourg, France. Despite the shock outcome in several individual countries, pro-EU conservative parties are expected to have the biggest group, the AP projects. Populist or far-right forces have more seats than ever, but their views diverge on many issues.
• This article is based in part on wire service reports.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.