OPINION:
President Biden will be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States. The race will be much closer than many people think. Former President Donald Trump can be victorious, but it will take message discipline to win over swing voters in battleground states like mine, Wisconsin.
Despite the meltdown by liberal pundits in the week since Mr. Biden’s terrible debate performance, Democratic political insiders largely stuck with the incumbent. Former President Barack Obama’s post on X, reminding people that he, too, had a bad first debate, sent a clear message to the party faithful.
Campaign finance laws make it nearly impossible to transfer the financial advantage that the Biden-Harris campaign has over Mr. Trump’s campaign. (I just saw a third ad for Mr. Biden during the Brewers broadcast as I typed this column.) Vice President Kamala Harris could use the funds, but I don’t hear pundits calling for her to replace the 81-year-old president. The financial advantage is a major reason for sticking with the incumbent.
On top of that, a party dominated by identity politics cannot leapfrog the first Black woman to serve as vice president with a White man — or likely even a White woman. In my opinion, former first lady Michelle Obama is the only person with the profile to replace Mr. Biden and win both the nomination and the general election.
Seeing Hillary Clinton’s fall from grace should be a vivid reminder to Mrs. Obama to stay out of electoral politics. She and her husband enjoy high levels of respect that have translated into financial security through book deals, streaming rights and speaking fees. Why would the Obamas risk losing those benefits after years of struggles?
Unless Mr. Biden announces he is not running, it is almost impossible to replace him. He won about 3,900 of the roughly 4,000 delegates to the Democratic National Convention. It would be the height of hypocrisy for the party running on saving democracy to encourage delegates to vote against the candidate who overwhelmingly won a majority of the primaries and caucuses.
Mr. Biden is not going to withdraw. He would rather gnaw his arm off than willingly give up the Oval Office. He had to drop out of the 1988 presidential race in disgrace over his 1987 plagiarism scandal. Most would have exited politics. Instead, Mr. Biden ran again in 2008. Amazingly, then-Sen. Obama picked him to join the ticket, which resuscitated Mr. Biden’s chances of a future run. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pushed him out in 2016, and most wrote him off in 2020. Somehow, Mr. Biden made it to the nomination in the year of COVID-19. He and first lady Jill Biden are not backing away from their power.
Supporters of Mr. Trump should not start celebrating just yet. While Mr. Biden’s debate performance was awful, his comments were pretty good on the day after the debate. American voters and the media love to tear candidates down, but they love comebacks, too. (Remember Bill Clinton, the “Comeback Kid”?)
In his speech in North Carolina, the president acknowledged that he wasn’t young anymore and that he wasn’t as good of a debater as he was years ago, but he said he would tell the truth. Voters like that kind of candor. Undecided voters in swing states appreciate it even more, and they will likely sway the election.
With this in mind, Mr. Trump must focus on reaching these critical voters. Most of them were with him in 2016, and many of them bolted in 2020. He can win them back, but he needs message discipline.
First, acknowledge that it is sad to see Mr. Biden’s state of mind. The best line of the debate came when he said that he had hoped Mr. Biden would be a great president and that he would not be running if he was actually that good.
After saying that the situation is sad for the country, Mr. Trump should look at the voters and tell them that he will focus on the issues that really matter to Americans — high prices, border security and public safety. Repeat these issues over and over. He can make inroads with swing voters.
A nationwide poll released this week by Young America’s Foundation shows that the economy is the top issue among college students. Only 30% of college students approve of Mr. Biden’s job performance. They overwhelmingly believe that he is not competent to hold the highest office in the land, which is a big problem for Democrats.
That said, Mr. Biden will be the nominee. He still has a shot of winning (with major help from the media). But Mr. Trump can seal the deal with swing voters by showing empathy toward the cognitive challenges of the incumbent. Then, he should lay out his plans to make America affordable, secure and safe again.
• Scott Walker is president of Young America’s Foundation and served as the 45th governor of Wisconsin from 2011 to 2019.
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