OPINION:
In late 2012, I spoke at an event in Tokyo about the South China Sea. One panelist presented on China’s recent seizure of Scarborough Shoal, a fishing ground well within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone.
The United States had recently brokered a deal to defuse a standoff between the Philippines and China at the shoal. It called for both the Philippines and China to withdraw their coast guard ships from the area. The Philippines withdrew. China did not. The Chinese have occupied the shoal ever since. China betrayed both the U.S. and its ally the Philippines. The U.S. did nothing.
A senior Philippine official was sitting next to me. He despairingly said to himself, “There was nothing we could do.”
I didn’t say anything — but I should have said: “Yeah, there was plenty we could have done. But we didn’t. I’m sorry.”
Over 10 years later, one feels like saying the same thing.
From Scarborough Shoal to Second Thomas Shoal
Chinese coast guard ships and Maritime Militia boats are roughing up Philippine resupply boats and their crews at Second Thomas Shoal — another location international law has determined belongs to the Philippines but that China wants. The Philippines deliberately grounded one of its navy ships, the BRP Sierra Madre — an 80-year-old U.S. World War II tank landing ship — at the shoal in 1999 to assert ownership after China occupied Mischief Reef, also within Philippine territory. The personnel on the Sierra Madre need regular resupplying, something China is determined to block.
The Filipinos are overwhelmed and will soon be unable to penetrate the Chinese flotilla and access their own territory and people.
Recently, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin affirmed Washington’s “ironclad commitment” to the Philippines under the Mutual Defense Treaty, or MDT.
He reiterated Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s earlier assurance of America’s ironclad commitment.
Following the June 17 Chinese bludgeoning of Philippine boats, the U.S. State Department declared, “The United States stands with its ally the Philippines.”
“Stand with” perhaps means something different in Washington than it does in Manila.
It does not appear to mean U.S. forces going out with Filipino allies where it might be dangerous and the Chinese are waiting to pounce.
And the Filipinos notice.
What the Filipinos are saying
Over the past two weeks, friends in the Philippines have been sending their assessments of the situation.
They expect things to get worse: “Next time, someone will get killed, and China’s coast guard will say they were just defending themselves and that they had to ‘teach us a lesson,’ as they often like to say.”
They also repeatedly link Chinese aggression to U.S. inaction. One wrote: “People are trying to put up as brave a front as possible. But Washington has to make good on its ironclad commitment. A lot’s riding on it, and the Chicoms [Chinese communists] keep saying we’re mistaken if we think we’ll be helped, and they have many people [in the Philippines] advocating this line for them. However, I doubt [President] Biden and the Democrats will help; they don’t want another situation just before elections.”
Another added: “China feels very emboldened and aggressive against us sinceBiden is already compromised. Biden and the Democrats won’t go out of their way for us. We should be ready to act alone if necessary. People here are aware of this but holding out somehow, but I don’t expect a whole lot, especially given the elections. Biden and the Democrats can’t handle another crisis, especially since another one is practically there in Lebanon with Hezbollah.”
Others repeated the same assessment:
“Grant, you get a sense of what’s on people’s minds here. It’s only a matter of time before the CCG [Chinese coast guard] escalate since they know Biden and the Democrats are terrified about invoking the MDT. PRC will keep pressuring since they know there is practically no cost to them and Washington is gun-shy. CCG sliced off our sailors’ fingers during the last encounter. Next time, they may find some excuse to board BRP Sierra Madre because we have very little push back to speak of. Biden won’t do anything.”
We will know soon enough.
Nearly everyone at the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and the 7th Fleet knows what needs to be done.
But to do it, they need an order from the Biden administration.
Absent that, all the exercises U.S. forces and allies are doing in the Philippines are just a peacock showing off his plumage.
Or a rooster crowing from atop the barnyard dung heap.
Take your pick.
Either way, the wolves won’t be impressed.
What to do?
For starters, dispatch the U.S. Navy and Air Force, with proper rules of engagement alongside Philippine partners, to the places where the Filipinos are having the most trouble.
And then start hitting China where it really hurts. For example, pull the Bank of China’s license to operate in the U.S. dollar system for an indefinite period.
And let all 1.4 billion Chinese know about President Xi Jinping and his cronies’ immense wealth tucked away overseas in real estate, bank accounts and businesses — and the names of their relatives with green cards and residence permits in the U.S., United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and elsewhere.
Let them explain that to the 600 billion Chinese living on $5 a day.
But if “the adults” (their word, not mine) running U.S. foreign policy won’t do any of this, then get ready to say to our Philippine friends: “Yeah, there was plenty we could have done. But we didn’t. I’m sorry.”
And then get prepared to see where the Chinese head next.
• Grant Newsham is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the author of “When China Attacks.”
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