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From Europe to Asia, and even at home, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s stock is plummeting.
New survey data made public Tuesday by the Pew Research Center shows that Mr. Zelenskyy, the comedian-turned-politician who has forged a profile as the public face of Ukraine’s defiance in the face of Russia’s 2022 invasion, is rapidly losing trust around the world, including in neighboring European nations.
A separate poll released earlier this year found that his approval rating has fallen significantly among the Ukrainian people, suggesting that Mr. Zelenskyy’s once-untouchable political standing may be eroding as Ukraine’s struggle against Russia grinds through its third year.
The drop in Mr. Zelenskyy’s popularity could aid Russia’s long-term war strategy. Analysts say Russian President Vladimir Putin has now settled on a slow-moving war of attrition that chips away at Kyiv’s outnumbered military, while banking on the fact that international support — especially from the U.S., where Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has made clear he would push to end the conflict quickly — will inevitably dry up.
The two armies have settled into a stalemate along a more than 600-mile front in eastern and southern Ukraine, with only marginal gains for either side in more than a year.
For his part, Mr. Zelenskyy has stuck to his defiant tone and said that the key to unlocking peace is more military aid and the ability to more aggressively take the fight to Russia. He specifically cited the need to target airfields from which Russia launches its “glide bombs.”
“These bombs are one of the key elements of Putin’s ability to wage war,” he said in a speech Sunday. “The sooner the world helps us deal with the Russian combat aircraft launching these bombs, the sooner we can strike, justifiably strike, at Russian military infrastructure, military airfields, the closer we will be to peace. Real peace. The world has enough power to force Russia into peace.”
But if Mr. Zelenskyy’s personal standing is any indication, the Pew data suggest that the Kremlin’s calculations may be correct. An indefinite continuation of the war could lead to even more frustration across the West and diminishing faith in Mr. Zelenskyy’s long-term strategy.
The wide-ranging Pew survey sampled citizens in 35 countries. It found that just 40% of respondents expressed confidence in Mr. Zelenskyy “to do the right thing regarding world affairs,” while 46% do not have such confidence. Some of the disconnects are largest in the countries that Ukraine relies on the most.
In the U.S., 48% said they have confidence in the Ukrainian leader, while 39% said they do not. Thirteen percent said they didn’t know.
The numbers are much bleaker in Europe. In Hungary, 83% said they have “none” or “not too much” confidence in Mr. Zelenskyy. In Italy, France and Germany, those numbers were 60%, 53% and 44%, respectively.
Perhaps the most jarring change came in Poland. About 48% said they have confidence in Mr. Zelenskyy, compared to 40% who do not. But that confidence figure among Poles has dropped by a whopping 22 percentage points since last year, according to Pew. About 70% of Poles surveyed in 2023 expressed confidence in the Ukrainian leader.
In Poland and elsewhere across Eastern Europe, much of the change can likely be attributed to simmering anger among farmers and agricultural workers who say that the flood of cheap Ukrainian grain pouring across their borders has led to decreases in food prices that, in turn, make their own farming operations less profitable. The European Union has allowed Ukraine to send duty-free grain into EU nations because the war has greatly restricted its ability to export grain via Black Sea ports.
War-weary
But Mr. Zelenskyy’s poll numbers have fallen elsewhere as well. In South Korea, confidence in the Ukrainian president has fallen by 15 percentage points since last year and now stands at 51%, the Pew poll shows. In South Africa, just 20% of respondents have confidence in him — down 12 percentage points since last year, the survey says.
A Ukrainian poll released in February found that 63% of Ukrainians support Mr. Zelenskyy’s leadership, down from 91% in February 2023.
A continued loss of confidence in Mr. Zelenskyy could accelerate calls for peace, including in America, where Mr. Trump said during last week’s presidential debate that he would seek to end the war quickly if elected. His position seems to be driven by the belief that Ukraine cannot defeat Russia on the battlefield, and therefore a negotiated peace is the only realistic answer.
Specialists say Moscow wants to continue making small, incremental gains in eastern Ukraine to further that belief in Washington and in European capitals.
“Putin likely hopes that creeping Russian advances in Ukraine will convince the West that Ukrainian victory is unattainable and that concessions on Ukrainian territorial integrity and sovereignty are preferable to Ukrainian defeat,” researchers with the Institute for the Study of War wrote in a June 30 analysis.
At the same time, NATO leaders say that Ukraine remains on the path toward full membership. Outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg suggested recently that he expects next week’s alliance summit in Washington to produce an official statement to that effect.
“We have already a plan for NATO training and security assistance for Ukraine,” he said during a June 18 press conference in Washington alongside U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
“We have seen new announcements, and I expect those are more announcements of more military support to Ukraine,” Mr. Stoltenberg said. “I’m certain that we will also have language expressing that Ukraine will become a member of the alliance.”
The popularity of NATO itself is perhaps less than one might expect in some nations. The Pew survey asked respondents in 13 NATO states whether they have a favorable or unfavorable view of the alliance. Overall, 63% said they have a favorable opinion, compared to 33% who said it is unfavorable.
In the U.S., 58% said they have a favorable view, while 38% said they have an unfavorable one. In Poland, Britain, Germany and Hungary, the favorable figures were 91%, 66%, 64%, and 63%, respectively.
But NATO appears much less popular in Greece and Turkey, where just 37% and 42% of respondents, respectively, said they have a favorable view of the alliance.
• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at bwolfgang@washingtontimes.com.
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