Vice President Kamala Harris, the most likely “Plan B” for Democrats if President Biden drops out of the race, doesn’t perform as well as four other Democratic alternatives in matchups against former President Donald Trump in key battleground states, according to a memo from a Democratic-funded polling group.
The draft memo from BlueLabs Analytics says Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer all out-perform Ms. Harris. They were singled out for holding a five-point lead over Mr. Biden across each of the battleground states in contests against Mr. Trump.
The memo said that Ms. Harris, whose name has been heavily circulated as a possible backup candidate, performed better than Mr. Biden against Mr. Trump, but not as well as the four other alternatives. The pollsters said Ms. Harris performed “behind the average [Democratic] alternative.”
“Voters are looking for a fresh face,” the memo stated. “Those more closely tied to the current administration perform relatively worse than other tested candidates.”
The organization interviewed 15,000 voters across seven battleground states — Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — between July 5 and July 12, roughly a week after Mr. Biden’s dismal debate performance that sparked the current crisis of confidence among Democrats.
The group appears to have tested 10 other candidates besides Mr. Biden.
“Nearly every tested Democrat performs better than the president,” the memo stated.
The draft memo, which was first reported by Politico, comes as Mr. Biden has vowed to stay in the race while more and more prominent Democrats, including Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer of New York and former President Barack Obama have told the president or their allies that he should consider stepping aside.
BlueLabs Analytics’ memo noted that Mr. Trump is “leading the presidential race comfortably,” across battleground states in the aftermath of the June 27 debate.
The memo found that alternative Democratic candidates edge out Mr. Biden in contests against Mr. Trump in crucial swing state races by an average of three points.
The document said that, by a ratio of 2 to 1, voters wanted the party to choose “the best nominee no matter who” should Mr. Biden exit the race.
While Ms. Whitmer has been floated as a possible replacement pick, she has vowed that she wouldn’t run if Mr. Biden were to drop out.
Mr. Kelly won a tough election in 2022 against a Trump-backed opponent, but appeared to back Mr. Biden in an interview with MSNBC on Wednesday where he said that he believed the Biden-Harris ticket would win if “we work hard as possible and not make any mistakes here.”
Both Mr. Moore and Mr. Shapiro have also said that they support Mr. Biden.
The memo also said that about 3% of voters who back Mr. Trump would support an alternative Democratic candidate, while 1% of voters supporting Mr. Biden would flip to backing the Republican nominee if the president dropped out.
• Alex Miller can be reached at amiller@washingtontimes.com.
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