A new poll released Monday found that former President Donald Trump had a 3-point advantage in the swing state of Pennsylvania before he survived an assassination attempt at a rally there on Saturday.
The New York Times/Siena College poll of 872 registered Pennsylvania voters, conducted July 9-11, showed Mr. Trump leading among likely voters with 48% support compared to 45% for Mr. Biden.
The difference falls within the poll’s 3.8% margin of error but still shows troubling signs for the president’s support in the state where he was born and lived through the early part of his childhood. Mr. Trump is widely expected to receive a boost in support after the attempt on his life at Saturday’s rally in Butler County, Pennsylvania, where a gunman’s bullet grazed his right ear.
The Pennsylvania poll results are virtually unchanged from one taken in May. But a separate New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in Virginia this month — which was not part of their May swing state surveys — found that state could also be in play this fall.
The Virginia poll, conducted July 9-12, found Mr. Biden with a 3-point lead, with 48% support among likely voters compared to 45% for Mr. Trump. Those results also fall within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error.
A Republican presidential candidate has not won Virginia in two decades. Former President George W. Bush secured the state’s 13 electoral college votes on his way to winning a second term in 2004.
Both the Pennsylvania and Virginia polls also found that Vice President Kamala Harris would fare better than Mr. Biden in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Trump. The 81-year-old Mr. Biden has been facing pressure from some Democrats to step down as the party’s presidential nominee since his disastrous June 27 debate performance, but those calls have paused in the days since the attempt on Mr. Trump’s life.
Ms. Harris trailed Mr. Trump by a single point among likely voters in the Pennsylvania poll, and was running 5 points ahead of him in the Virginia poll.
A majority of registered Democrats surveyed in the Virginia poll, 58%, said they wanted Mr. Biden to step aside, while only 46% of registered Democrats in Pennsylvania said the same.
The Pennsylvania and Virginia polls showed good news for Democrats worried about the down-ballot impact of Mr. Biden’s continued candidacy, with incumbent U.S. senators running for reelection in those states holding sizable leads over their Republican challengers.
Sen. Bob Casey, Pennsylvania Democrat, had an 11-point lead over his Republican challenger David McCormick, with 50% support compared to 39% for Mr. McCormick. That’s up from the 5-point lead he had in the May survey, as the number of undecided voters narrows.
In Virginia, Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine is up 18 points over his GOP challenger, Hung Cao. Mr. Kaine received support from 52% of voters surveyed, compared to Mr. Cao’s 34%.
• Lindsey McPherson can be reached at lmcpherson@washingtontimes.com.
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