Political assassinations on the rise around the world, analysts say

Former President Donald Trump narrowly escaped an attempt on his life Saturday when a gunman opened fire during a political rally in Butler, Pennsylvania., about 35 miles north of Pittsburgh.

Mr. Trump was wounded two years after his friend, the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, was gunned down at a campaign event by an assassin wielding a homemade firearm.

Security analysts say politically inspired killings — both accomplished and attempted — appear to be on the rise around the world.

Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot on May 15 following a government meeting in the central Slovakian town of Handlova. 

He was rushed to a local hospital and underwent emergency surgery. Police arrested the assailant, Juraj Cintula, 71, who reportedly opposed Mr. Fico’s international policies, which included pushing for friendly relations with Russia while criticizing NATO and the U.S.

British lawmaker David Amess was stabbed to death on Oct. 15, 2021, while he was meeting with voters from his constituency in the House of Commons. 

Authorities said the assailant, Ali Harbi Ali, was a British Islamic State sympathizer. He was convicted of murder and terrorist-related activities and sentenced to life in prison.

On July 7, 2021, Haitian President Jovenel Moise was assassinated by gunmen who stormed his Port-au-Prince home. His wife was wounded in the attack but later indicted as an accomplice along with several high-ranking government officials.

“The United Kingdom, Haiti, Japan, Slovakia, and now the U.S. Political assassinations are on the rise around the world,” Jacob Ware, a research fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations, said Sunday on X. “An extremely concerning development, that unfortunately shows no real signs of slowing down.”

Fernando Villavicencio, a journalist and presidential candidate from Ecuador, was shot to death on Aug. 9, 2023, shortly after a campaign event in Quito, the nation’s capital city. The anti-corruption activist was killed about two weeks before the general election during a time of heavy gang activity, according to media reports.

Sanjeev Sanyal, a noted Indian economist, said he wouldn’t be surprised if there was a connection between the assassination of Prime Minister Abe and the attacks on the Slovakian prime minister and Mr. Trump because each are considered populist political figures.

Mr. Abe and Mr. Trump had a close relationship while both men were leading their respective countries. They met at least 20 times, played several rounds of golf together and called each other dozens of times.

“The United States came within a quarter of an inch from civil war. Let that sink in,” Mr. Sanyal said Sunday on X. “Whoever is playing this dangerous game needs to be hunted down. Never forget that civilization is a Ponzi Scheme. It is nasty when it unwinds. Never assume it will not happen in your lifetime.”

Political assassinations are not confined to either extreme of the political spectrum. Both far-left and far-right actors have used violence to push their ideologies. Analysts say they are uniquely suited to tear at a country’s social fabric.

The growth of personal technologies like drones and 3-D printed firearms could open the door for further attacks against high-profile political figures in the future. But homemade weapons, such as the crude shotgun Mr. Abe’s assailant used to evade Japan’s stringent gun laws, will still play a role.

“Cruder technology lowers the barriers to entry for attackers, allowing even untrained or unprepared extremists … to attempt serious plots,” Mr. Ware and Bruce Hoffman, also with the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in an August 2022 essay for the War on the Rocks national security website.