Chinese official warns of increased likelihood of attack on Taiwan

An influential Chinese government official and academic is warning that the People’s Liberation Army may soon launch a military assault on Taiwan as part of Beijing’s drive to take over the self-ruled island.

Jin Canrong, a professor at Renmin University and an adviser to China’s rubber-stamp national legislature, said in a recent article that peaceful options for uniting the mainland with Taiwan are fading.

“The reality is that [our] hope for peaceful reunification is dwindling. Thus, we need to prepare ourselves for reunification through non-peaceful means,” he said. “This includes military and economic preparations as well as preparations with regards to our domestic politics and [gaining] international understanding. All of these require serious work.”

Considered an ultranationalist and a harsh critic of the United States, Mr. Jin’s comments reflect official Chinese Communist Party policy.

Mr. Jin, who also advises several government bodies in Beijing, serves up daily commentaries in Chinese media and online platforms that could not be circulated without the ruling Communist Party’s support and approval, given the regime’s high-technology censorship system.

Mr. Jin’s latest missive, published June 22 in the hawkish party-affiliated outlet Guancha.cn, argues that China’s economic problems and financial dependencies will render military action difficult. Those problems only add to the challenge for China’s military of carrying out an amphibious assault across the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait.

China’s military has increased pressure on Taiwan since the inauguration of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te on May 20. Shortly after, Chinese forces released an online video that included an animation of simulated attacks on Taiwan.

Mr. Jin said military readiness is the key to assault preparations. The recent “Joint Sword 2024A” military exercises were notable in that the drills were unannounced, took place over a larger area around Taiwan, and used more troops than past exercises, he said.

“Realistically speaking, the means currently employed by the [Chinese military’s] eastern theater command are already sufficient,” he said.

He said the military is working to resolve the challenges of carrying out an operation across the forbidding strait.

“Of course, I also believe that our PLA has many undisclosed strategies and that they are working hard on these,” Mr. Jin said. “But despite the modernization of our military making very good progress, we have not fought in an actual war for many years now, so we must prepare ourselves for this.”

Economically, China needs to prepare for war, he said, noting the current “fragility” of the economy. “With insufficient domestic demand and a lack of [diversified] markets, I describe this as lacking economic strategic autonomy. This is a problem we need to address,” Mr. Jin said.

Mr. Jin blamed the United States for increased tensions over Taiwan, saying Washington has encouraged pro-independence forces on the island.

Thomas des Garets Geddes, editor of the online newsletter Sinification, which published a translation of the article, said Mr. Jin in recent years has morphed from a scholar into one of China’s most important opinion leaders, with a large social media following. Mr. Geddes said the message behind the article presents a mixture of threats of a future armed attack along with a note of caution that the current period is not the time for China to act.

“China still has much to prepare ahead of such a potential military campaign and the international repercussions that would probably ensue,” Mr. Geddes said of the article. “Militarily, China is not quite ready yet. Economically, it is still too dependent on the West and must be able to rely much more on its own domestic market.”

Globally, Mr. Jin argues that China needs more diplomatic support. Domestically, the government needs to build popular support before military force is used, he said.

“There is truth to all of this,” Mr. Geddes said on Substack.

As a side note, Mr. Jin was one of the people who met with Vice President Joe Biden on one of his visits to China during the Obama administration.