OPINION:
A version of this story appeared in the On Background newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive On Background delivered directly to your inbox each Friday.
At the end of each calendar year, journalists and broadcast media often fill the news space with a look back at the previous year’s news events, sometimes ranking them in order of importance or impact.
But surprisingly few look at what is coming up in the year ahead. 2024 is sure to be a giant of a news year, particularly in the United States, which will choose a president in November.
Back in 2020, with COVID raging, the voters had a choice between then-incumbent Donald Trump and a former vice president named Joe Biden. Throughout the campaign Mr. Biden couldn’t draw a crowd of more than 50 people to see him speak, yet managed to garner the most votes an American presidential candidate ever received — more than 81 million. Despite losing the election, Mr. Trump earned more votes in 2020 than he had in victory in 2016.
The two appear to be on a crash course again for the 2024 election. Polling shows Mr. Trump far ahead of his GOP challengers, and Mr. Biden has no meaningful opposition within his party. Despite the fact most Americans, 61% by at least one credible poll, say they do not want a Trump-Biden rematch, most pundits are quite sure that is exactly what we’ll have in the fall.
Not so fast.
Mr. Trump will likely fly through the primary season and capture the Republican nomination, but his tenuous legal situation means he could be convicted of one or more felonies. Will the GOP put forward a convicted felon as its nominee? Is his eligibility compromised if convicted? Even if he does remain on the ballot will America elect someone convicted in a court of law?
That’s not to say Mr. Trump will actually be convicted. A majority of Americans, including a significant chunk of Democrats, think the potpourri of charges brought against him are politically motivated, and after months in court and millions in legal fees, the 45th president may well be acquitted of everything. I merely mention the possible alternative because it exists. If I was a betting man and was forced to choose whether Mr. Trump will appear on the ballot in the fall, my money would go on “yes.”
It is the Democratic side of the ballot that I’m not so sure about.
Mr. Biden is 81, and looks and acts every year of it. He frequently looks lost in public, can’t pronounce even basic words at times, and has fallen down multiple times on stage and while entering and exiting Air Force One. Publicly, he seems to have many symptoms of dementia, a condition that doesn’t typically improve over time.
Adding to the president’s woes are approval ratings in the mid- to high-30s. Those numbers are the lowest any president has had at this point in his term. Despite the administration’s efforts to sell the wonders of Bidenomics, the American people realize they are paying a lot more for gas, eggs and firewood than they were four years ago. Virtually no one in the real world thinks this is an economy to be bragging about.
Poll after poll shows that Democrats wish they had a credible different choice. Most Democrats can’t ever envision voting for Donald Trump, however, so barring a surge from independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., many Democrat voters may just stay home on election day.
Unless of course, the party takes radical and unexpected action. Here is what you can expect in 2024.
Mr. Biden will breeze through a perfunctory primary season without even having to make campaign appearances. By June he will have wrapped up virtually all the delegates and the party will head toward its August convention unified, even if not enthusiastic.
That is where the news of the century (so far) will take place.
Mr. Biden will announce at the beginning of convention week that his health is compromised and “for the good of the country” he will not seek reelection.
He won’t stop there however, he will repeat some version of how the election of Mr. Trump to another term will bring about Armageddon itself and that the Democrats must do all in their power to stop him. Then he will drop the big bomb.
Mr. Biden will nominate Michelle Obama for president of the United States. She will walk onto the stage and a shocked arena full of party faithful will explode with uncontrollable excitement. The unparalleled enthusiasm will ensure the Big Mo Train will immediately leave the station and no one will be able to derail it. Before the week is out, it will be official. Michelle Obama, despite not having campaigned one minute, is the nominee of the Democrat Party.
The left-leaning mainstream media will swoon. A Democratic Party that just days before had been lulled to sleep like a napping Joe Biden, will suddenly be more energized than it has been since another Obama was nominated in 2008.
Mrs. Obama will not do press conferences. She will not take questions. She will not sit for interviews, except of course for a made-for-television special with Oprah Winfrey. For at least 30 days, the former first lady will simply bask in the glow provided by a fawning media, saying or doing very little.
In October, Mrs. Obama will issue some position papers that talk about things as nebulous and yet as popular as her husband’s “Hope and Change” message of his first campaign. She will talk about bringing us all together. She will lecture us about America getting along with the world. She will passionately discuss how families need to be able to afford basics like groceries. She will offer no specific plan on how to achieve any of these things.
Mrs. Obama will refuse to debate Mr. Trump and since he refused to participate in the GOP primary debates, he will have no legitimate gripe.
Women and minorities, both of whom were less than enthusiastic about Mr. Biden, will flock to Mrs. Obama. In the week before the election she will appear in an arena to 18,000 adoring fans and the images will sear into the American consciousness. Mrs. Obama will be both presented as and perceived as unbeatable.
She will win. America will celebrate. The left will outrageously declare how a dictator-like era under Mr. Trump was narrowly averted, and, much like her husband was, Mrs. Obama will be lauded as a savior of sorts.
The plaudits won’t be accurate of course, but for the 80-plus days leading up to her inauguration, much of America will buy into it, share a collective sigh of relief and celebrate.
Crazy? Not at all. Check in with me at the end of the year and congratulate me on pegging the biggest story of 2024 before the year had really even gotten started.
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