Beijing, Washington closely following upcoming presidential elections in Taiwan

China described next week’s presidential elections in neighboring Taiwan as a stark choice between peace and war, and will attempt to reinforce that ominous message in the days leading up to the Jan. 13 vote. 

On Friday, analysts with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank said Beijing is likely to maintain a high military operational tempo around Taiwan’s territorial waters as it tries to convince voters that the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) consists of separatists who would instigate conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Just last week, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) announced a series of military drills in the area.

But if the DPP prevails, as recent polling suggests, Beijing “will be forced to contend with the fact that its years-long marathon of military drills and narrative-shaping efforts failed to deliver the intended results,” said Craig Singleton, an FDD fellow who spent more than a decade focused on East Asia security issues in the government. 

But if Taiwan’s main opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT) manages to pull off an upset, an emboldened Beijing may believe it has hit on a winning political warfare formula that blends provocative military posturing with an active disinformation campaign.

“In that case, China may begin evaluating how it can replicate its success in other countries, including the United States. That is really concerning,” Mr. Singleton said.  

While a KMT victory would likely mean Taiwan pursuing greater direct communications with Beijing, a majority of people on the island oppose reunification, which remains China’s goal.

“That suggests to me that tensions may temporarily ease under a KMT administration, but Beijing will no doubt persist in pressuring Taiwan to choose a so-called ‘peaceful reunification path,’” Mr. Singleton said. “That’s sort of bound to cause tensions between Beijing and Taipei going forward.”

In the event of a DPP victory, Beijing’s first move may be directed not at Taiwan but at the White House. China will likely urge the Biden administration to use its influence to discourage Taiwan from taking a victory lap or otherwise waving its electoral win in China’s face, Mr. Singleton said.

“Sensitivities are running very high in Beijing as she confronts myriad domestic and international crises,” he said. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “recent statements emphasizing the urgency of reunification make it unlikely for him to accept defeat gracefully.”

In addition to providing Taiwan with military hardware, the U.S. should also stage military exercises with the island nation’s armed forces, said retired Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, a senior fellow at FDD.

“I would say 99% of their ships’ commanding officers and flag officers have never done an exercise with the United States Navy. The last exercise was in 1981 which was 42 years ago,” he said. “It’s the same with the Air Force. They get trained in Arizona as young pilots but then they go to Taiwan and don’t fly with us again.”

Unlike the more Beijing friendly KMT, the DPP will be more likely to support future joint military operations with the U.S., Admiral Montgomery said.