North Korea shows off its military muscle near and far

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea showcased its military might on opposite sides of the world this week, as firing drills drove residents of a South Korean border island into shelters Friday a day after Washington accused Pyongyang of supplying Russia with missiles used in the war against Ukraine.

North Korea’s Yellow Sea firing drills followed weeklong South Korean exercises held close to the DMZ. A 2018 military agreement between the two Koreas pausing such exercises collapsed in November amid mutual recriminations.

Given the global attention focused on North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, the recent developments cast fresh light on the power of the country’s conventional artillery force, the world’s second-largest after Russia, and offer North Korean leader Kim Jong Un an escape from economic and diplomatic isolation.

Civilians on South Korea’s islands of Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong in the Yellow Sea were ordered by text messages to take cover in shelters around midday on Friday as Pyongyang fired some 200 artillery rounds into the sea off its west coast.

Reports that residents were “evacuated” proved inaccurate and no casualties or property damage was reported.

Seoul’s top military officials called North Korea’s drills an “escalation” and responded with firing drills of their own.

Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong lie closer to North Korea’s coast than to the South’s, but have been controlled by Seoul since the Korean War ended in 1953.

Seoul-allied forces established naval superiority in the Yellow Sea, granting them the upper hand to dictate the so-called “Northern Limit Line,” the maritime demilitarized zone. It is not formally recognized by North Korea.

In the early 1990s and early 2000s, the Yellow Sea border, which crosses rich fishing grounds, was the scene of deadly patrol boat clashes. The two heavily militarized islands are special flashpoints, including a deadly March 2010 incident in which a South Korean corvette was sunk off Baengnyeong by what Seoul claims was a North Korea’s mini-submarine torpedo attack, killing 46 sailors.

In November 2010, after South Korean forces started an artillery drill on Yeongpyeong, North Korean fire rained down on the island, killing two Marines and two civilians. The crisis was de-escalated, but North Korea’s artillery strike shook South Korea. 

Ukrainian display

On Thursday, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told a briefing that Russia’s New Year’s barrage targeting major Ukrainian cities included two North Korean ballistic missiles with ranges of approximately 550 miles.

The United States previously released satellite imagery showing shipping containers, which Washington claims held artillery ammunition, moving from North Korea, across Eurasia, to a Russian base near the Black Sea.

Calling ballistic missile supply “a significant and concerning escalation” of North Korean support for Russia, Mr. Kirby suggested that Pyongyang is seeking “fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment or materials, and other advanced technologies” in return.

Other experts have suggested that Russia could barter fuel and food, as well as weapons and technologies, for North Korean arms, artillery and possibly labor.

One analyst here said Seoul’s agreement to aid Ukraine in the fight may have opened the door for the North Korean move.

“For this kind of transaction, North Korea and Russia have the excuse that South Korea has been supplying 155mm ammunition to Ukraine via the U.S.,” said Moon Chung-in, an inter-Korean relations expert.

South Korea has supplied between 500,000 and 1 million howitzer rounds to the U.S. from its stockpiles as the Pentagon has drawn down its own stocks to keep Kyiv armed.

Despite modest GDP, Russia can draw on arms stockpiles dating back to the 1960s, a massive military-industrial sector, and an economy on a war footing.

Yet, the nearly two-year invasion of Ukraine has burned through Russia’s armory, forcing it to turn to partners. Iran is supplying drones and Mr. Kirby said Washington believes Moscow is seeking Iranian ballistic missiles, too.

North Korea, which spent an estimated 33% of its GDP on its military in 2022, boasts a formidable conventional artillery arm. A 2010 comparison of global armies published by the International Institute of Strategic Studies said North Korea had the world’s second-largest artillery arm, with over 17,900 pieces and launchers.

Russia, with 26,121, had the largest force; The U.S. Army’s artillery arm was in sixth place, with 8,137.

“North Korea’s strategy, going back decades, relied on artillery to threaten the South,” said Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean general. “Communist nations worldwide had this strategy of superior artillery and it is a legacy capability North Korea maintains.”

Hard to deter

The Biden administration has limited means to counter the Moscow-Pyongyang trade, analysts said.

Mr. Kirby said Washington would raise the matter in the U.N. Security Council and was ready to impose further sanctions on Russia and its military suppliers, but the threats do not seem to have dissuaded North Korea.

“This kind of export relationship gives Kim Jong Un the confidence to proclaim it is shoulder-to-shoulder with Russia,” said Go Myong-hyun, a researcher at Seoul’s Asan Institute. “There is no need for them to speak to the Biden administration.”

“As a result of growing confrontation between Washington and Moscow, Kim Jong Un has found a new niche for survival,” added Mr. Moon, who advised three prior Seoul administrations on inter-peninsula policies.

Mr. Chun described the power dynamic as “a new world” in which the U.S. and its allies “are going to have to make big sacrifices.”

One bright spot in the picture is the fact that China has not followed the lead of Pyongyang and Tehran in supplying Moscow with arms or munitions.

The Chinese “need to manage their relationship with the U.S. and Europe,” said Mr. Go. “Their exposure to international markets is much larger than Iran’s or North Korea’s, so they are keeping their distance from Russia.”