The Dallas Cowboys have an easy, but important, task this weekend: If they beat the Washington Commanders, they will be the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs.
For a team that has played much better at home than on the road, that’s a huge deal. It also aligns perfectly with the interests of most Commanders fans, who would like to see their team get as good of a draft pick as possible to help rebuild a depleted roster under a new coaching staff.
That’s where things get complicated.
Three teams are tied for the No. 2 draft selection at the moment — the Commanders, Patriots and Cardinals.
The NFL’s first tiebreaker in determining order is strength of schedule. The teams that have played an easier schedule get a better draft pick, using the logic that it was harder for them to lose as many games as they did against softer competition.
Arizona has played a tough schedule this season, and loses out in any tiebreaker scenario. That means if the Commanders lose, they can do no worse than third in the draft order.
Washington and New England, though, have comparable strength-of-schedule rankings. At the moment, Commanders opponents have 140 wins, while Patriots opponents have 141 wins. That means the Commanders would pick No. 2 overall, but have to hold that advantage through the weekend’s games.
The biggest game on the schedule is the Falcons-Saints contest, because the Falcons played Washington, and the Saints played the Patriots. That outcome will provide a double boost to one of the two “tanking” teams.
Four other games can nudge the strength of schedule by one game.
The Commanders fans are rooting for:
- The Steelers to beat the Ravens
- The Colts to beat the Texans
- The Packers to beat the Bears
- The Raiders to beat the Broncos
Any combination of three of those five teams winning (including the Saints) gives the Commanders the inside track on the No. 2 draft position.
Of course, the simplest way would be to lose to the Cowboys and have the Patriots beat the Jets.
There are other records Washington is chasing as well during Sunday’s game.
Terry McLaurin could become the first wide receiver in franchise history to post four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, while his quarterback, Sam Howell, is likely to finish the season with the NFL lead in interceptions (19) and sacks. Howell has 61 while Carolina’s Bryce Young has 59.
It’s likely the crowd is focused on the other sideline, though, as Cowboys fans have an opportunity to create a favorable postseason situation for their team.
Thanks to the Eagles’ late slide, Dallas needs only to win to lock up the No. 2 seed in the NFC East.
Commanders coach Ron Rivera said he’s briefed his team on the opportunity to play spoiler against a traditional rival.
“I think they understand that this is one of the top rivalries in the NFL, and I don’t think it necessarily matters what your record is,” Rivera said. “This is really about the opportunity to play against a team like this.”
A spoiler performance would play well in the Commanders’ locker room, but may not be what fans have in mind as they eye success in future seasons.
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