A vote for democracy in Taiwan

OPINION:

The Democratic Progressive Party candidate, Lai Ching-te, won Taiwan’s Jan. 13 presidential election with over 40% of the vote. It was a vote for democracy and a rebuke of China and its attempt to convince by intimidation the 23 million citizens of Taiwan that it was in their interest to deny the presidency to the pro-democracy candidate. China failed, and it should be clear to Beijing why.

Chinese warships circling Taiwan and jets entering Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone and routinely crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait were blatant attempts to intimidate Taiwan and convince voters that a vote for Mr. Lai was a vote for eventual war. That failed because the people voted for their democratic freedoms and refused to be bullied by an aggressive and threatening China.

China’s blatant and over-the-top disinformation efforts also failed. It was a multifaceted attempt to use social media, some with fake accounts, to propagate a false narrative or flat-out lies to influence the election. The Taiwan FactCheck Foundation, a nonprofit/nongovernment organization — and others — worked effectively to counter much of this disinformation from China.

But it should have been obvious to China that its actions in Hong Kong also influenced the electorate in Taiwan.

In 1984, China’s Deng Xiaoping and Britain’s Margaret Thatcher signed the Sino-British Joint Declaration, which provided autonomy for Hong Kong for 50 years. On July 1, 1997, when Hong Kong reverted from the United Kingdom back to China, the Basic Law for Hong Kong went into effect, ensuring that Hong Kong’s capitalist system and way of life would be untouched until 2047, thus enshrining the “one country, two systems” principle of governance.

But in June 2020, China’s National People’s Congress, apparently reacting to 2019 pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong, passed a national security law for Hong Kong, giving China extensive power to deal with crimes of secession, subversion, terrorism, and collusion with foreign forces, all punishable with maximum sentences of life in prison.

The interpretation of the law resides in Beijing, hollowing out judicial autonomy. The law’s threat to civil freedoms resulted in peaceful demonstrations, with many protesters being arrested. Former British Prime Minister Liz Truss said: “Since the National Security Law was imposed, authorities have cracked down on free speech, the free press and free association. We have seen a systematic erosion of liberty and democracy in Hong Kong.”

The “one country, two systems” principle of governance for Hong Kong ended abruptly with the enactment of the national security law. This was no doubt obvious to the people of Taiwan when they went to 18,000 polling stations to cast their ballot for the next president of Taiwan.

Indeed, the ongoing trial in Hong Kong of Jimmy Lai, founder of the now-shuttered pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily, must have been a powerful reminder to the citizens of Taiwan of the fragility of democracy.

Jimmy Lai, who participated in the 2019 pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong, was accused of endangering China’s national security. He has pleaded not guilty to charges of colluding with foreign forces and conspiracy to publish seditious material. If found guilty, he could be imprisoned for life. The trial continues, with countries including the U.S. and Britain saying the trial is a sham and calling for the release of Jimmy Lai.

In his New Year’s address a few weeks ago, Chinese dictator Xi Jinping said that unification with Taiwan was “inevitable.”

And a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, in a recent Xinhua news story commenting on the results of the Taiwan election, said: “Taiwan is China’s Taiwan … and the elections will not impede the inevitable trend of China’s reunification. Our stance on resolving the Taiwan question and realizing national reunification remains consistent, and our determination is as firm as rock.”

Lai Ching-te will be inaugurated in May, with a U.S. delegation that was in Taipei to congratulate the winner. In his comments after the election, Taiwan’s president-elect praised his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, and “committed to cross-Strait relations returning to a healthy and sustainable way of exchanges” while noting Taiwan’s critical semiconductor industry and promising to “continue to assist its development, which would benefit the global economy.”

The U.S. congratulated Mr. Lai on his election victory and is committed to providing Taiwan with $345 million in military aid and a one-China policy that supports the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.

China’s continued reaction to the election will be monitored closely by the global community. And given Beijing’s past criticism of Mr. Lai as a separatist, most doubt that China will relax its air and sea operations around Taiwan and respond favorably to any overture from Taiwan regarding improving cross-strait relations.

Historically, China has been patient, confident that its goals and objectives eventually will materialize. However, given Mr. Xi’s assertiveness and focus on Taiwan and his comments on the inevitable reunification with China, patience may cease to be his approach to resolving the Taiwan issue.

Thus, in addition to hoping for an improved cross-strait dialogue, enhanced deterrence between the U.S., its allies and Taiwan will be necessary to help convince China that a peaceful resolution of issues with Taiwan is the prudent approach.

• Joseph R. DeTrani served as special envoy for the Six-Party Talks with North Korea from 2003 to 2006 and as director of the National Counterproliferation Center. The views expressed here are the author’s and not those of any government agency or department.