Regardless of the result in the New Hampshire primary, Nikki Haley faces an uphill battle in the GOP presidential race moving forward.
The next stop in the nomination calendar is Nevada, where former President Donald Trump is set to run the table at the party-run caucuses, which Ms. Haley snubbed.
From there, the nomination battle moves to Ms. Haley’s political backyard of South Carolina, where she is looking for some home-cooking.
But that also is turning out to be a tough slog.
Mr. Trump is polling well ahead of Ms. Haley and also has gobbled up endorsements from the who’s who of state GOP politics.
Sen. Tim Scott, who pulled the plug on his long shot presidential bid in November, and Rep. Nancy Mace were among the latest South Carolina luminaries to hop aboard the Trump train.
The announcements were a bit of a gut punch for Ms. Haley.
She appointed Mr. Scott to the Senate in 2012 when she was governor of the state, and she rallied behind Ms. Mace in 2022 against a Trump-backed challenger.
Republican Gov. Henry McMasters, Sen. Lindsey Graham and five of the six members of the GOP congressional delegation are now ride-or-die Trumpers.
Ms. Haley, meanwhile, has the support of a single member of the South Carolina delegation: Rep. Ralph Norman.
As a result, the consensus has been that Ms. Haley needed to win New Hampshire or — at the very least — finish a close second to keep hope alive and have a rationale for sticking around.
“It is going to be a rough road — no matter what,” said Chip Felkel, a South Carolina GOP strategist.
“She needs a hurricane to hit the coast of South Carolina and have everyone pay attention to something else and don’t vote, which is not going to happen because it is not hurricane season,” he joked. “It is Trump’s party, we know it. As much as it pains me to admit it, I for one think he is leading the party off a cliff with them, but there are far too many people who think otherwise.”
Mr. Trump proved that in the Iowa caucuses, notching a record-breaking 30-point win.
He carried that momentum into the New Hampshire primary, which many political analysts and party insiders have framed as make-or-break for Ms. Haley.
The Haley team, however, has pushed back against that storyline, saying her strong support among independent voters provides her with a promising path.
In a campaign memo Tuesday, Haley campaign manager Betsy Ankney said “there is significant fertile ground for Nikki” in coming contests where independent voters are allowed to participate.
That includes in the Feb. 24 primary in South Carolina.
“And while members of Congress, the press, and many of the weak-kneed fellas who ran for president are giving up and giving in — we aren’t going anywhere,” she said.
Trump advisers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles shared a far different take over the weekend.
Ms. Haley will have two options if she loses New Hampshire, they said.
“Option A: Nikki Haley drops out, unites behind President Trump, and commits to defeating Joe Biden,” they wrote. “Option B: Nikki Haley prepares to be absolutely DEMOLISHED and EMBARRASSED (in her home state of South Carolina) after she gets zippo votes or delegates in Nevada.”
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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