No way out? Iran bogs down another U.S. president in Middle East morass

ANALYSIS:

First was the Obama administration’s vaunted “pivot” to Asia. Then, President Trump pledged to get out of “endless wars” in the Middle East. President Biden has tried to follow suit and radically reduce America’s military footprint in the tumultuous region after more than two decades of continuous war.

Despite the Trump-Biden effort to extricate U.S. forces from Afghanistan, the grand plan to finally leave the Middle East in the rearview mirror has mostly failed. President Obama was pulled back in by the rise of the Islamic State group a decade ago, forcing American troops to reengage in Iraq and establish a presence in neighboring Syria that remains to this day. About 900 American personnel are in Syria, part of the total of 45,000 service members and contractors across the region.

Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden were sucked into the Middle East for different reasons and under different geopolitical circumstances. Whether it was Mr. Trump surging U.S. ground forces to the theater or Mr. Biden launching an air war against Houthi rebels in Yemen to protect vital global shipping lanes, analysts say the root cause was the same: Iran.

The raging Gaza war between Israel and Hamas has inevitably shifted U.S. diplomatic and military resources back to the Middle East, where U.S. interests collide with Tehran’s. Other strategic priorities — ensuring Ukraine has the resources to turn back Russia’s invasion, say, or the need to build up forces and alliances in the Indo-Pacific to confront China — are inevitably put on the back burner given the need to prevent an all-out regional shooting war in the Middle East.

Iran-aligned Shiite militias that have regularly targeted U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria have direct ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Houthi rebels in Yemen wreaking havoc on international shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are backed by Iran and using Iranian-made drones and anti-ship missiles in their attacks.

Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that launched a horrific Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel and sparked a bloody war in the Gaza Strip, has direct financial and logistical ties to Tehran. The same can be said for Hezbollah, an even more formidable Shiite militant outfit based in Lebanon along Israel’s northern border that has clashed with Israel Defense Forces for decades.

Same enemy, new battleground

Mr. Biden’s campaign has committed the U.S. to combat in yet another Middle Eastern nation. Over the past two weeks, the Pentagon has carried out multiple rounds of airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen.

On Sunday, the Navy confirmed the first U.S. casualties of that campaign: two Navy SEALs who disappeared at sea this month while boarding a ship destined for Yemen and reportedly loaded with Iranian-made weapons. Mr. Biden paid tribute Monday to the two SEALs, Navy Special Warfare Operator 1st Class Christopher J. Chambers and Navy Special Warfare Operator 2nd Class Nathan Gage Ingram.

“These SEALS represented the very best of our country, pledging their lives to protect their fellow Americans,” the president said in a statement. “Our hearts go out to the family members, loved ones, friends and shipmates who are grieving for these two brave Americans. Our entire country stands with you.”

Before going to war in Yemen, the U.S. dispatched carrier strike groups and other assets to the Middle East in October as a show of support for Israel and a warning to Hezbollah and other Iran-linked groups not to escalate the conflict beyond the Gaza Strip.

It is proving impossible to contain the war to the small Palestinian enclave, with Iran and its proxies skillfully threatening U.S. interests and positions while stopping short of direct confrontation. Foreign policy analysts say it’s now clear that the simple notion of a more peaceful, stable Middle East — a situation that theoretically could set the stage for Washington to truly shrink its military footprint and redirect resources to the Pacific — simply isn’t possible unless the underlying problem of Iran is addressed.

“There certainly is no way out but through. Dealing with the myriad hot spots and battlefields of the Middle East requires dealing with Iran,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow with the think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

He said both major political parties in Washington share the blame for an American approach to Iran that has led to this moment of danger and extreme instability. From the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure campaign” of economic sanctions and the nixing of a nuclear deal with Tehran to Mr. Biden’s diplomatic olive branches, the regime in Tehran has neither been chastened nor restrained in its policies.

In fact, it seems increasingly clear that Tehran and its various proxies are convinced that the U.S. is incapable or unwilling to truly change the dynamic.

“The challenge now for Washington is about undoing sticky reputations that have or are congealing in the minds of Iranian national security decision-makers, as well as their proxies and partners in the Middle East,” Mr. Ben Taleblu said. “Deterrence is not monadic. It was not eroded overnight, and it will not be restored overnight. A tough action, followed by several perceptively weak or de-escalatory actions, will be drowned out, especially if the contest is one of will and resolve rather than capability.”

Another endless war?

American clashes with Iranian proxies show no signs of slowing down. Over the weekend, U.S. troops came under attack at the Ain al-Asad air base in Iraq, presumably by local Shiite militias with ties to Iran. U.S. Central Command said U.S. personnel were being evaluated for traumatic brain injuries and one Iraqi security officer was reported injured.

The militia Kataib Hezbollah has been the most frequent culprit in attacks against U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria. American forces have hit militia weapons depots and logistical hubs multiple times over the past several years, but the attacks have continued.

Years earlier, Mr. Trump and his national security team confronted a similar problem. As Iran-linked groups continually targeted American personnel, Mr. Trump authorized a drone strike to kill Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, commander of the elite Quds Force of the IRGC, long known as the key conduit between Tehran and the “axis of resistance” forces in the region attacking U.S. troops.

The January 2020 killing of Soleimani at Baghdad International Airport nearly sparked an all-out war between the U.S. and Iran. In its aftermath, Mr. Trump surged U.S. personnel to the Middle East, leaving more American troops in the region during his final year in office than when he assumed power in 2017.

Iran and its allies are now engaged in other forms of destabilization across the Middle East, critics say. National security insiders and analysts believe that at least part of the motivation for Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel was to undercut a looming diplomatic normalization deal between Israel and Iran’s top regional foe, Saudi Arabia. Such a deal could have greatly reduced Iran’s power and influence in the Middle East.

Israel and Saudi Arabia say such an agreement is still possible, but it seems far less likely given the ongoing fighting in Gaza and the humanitarian tragedies facing the Palestinian people there. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said in a CNN interview Sunday that any normalization deal would depend on an Israeli agreement to an independent Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has categorically ruled out an independent state for Palestinians.

Some specialists argue that the scope of chaos across the region proves that the U.S. approach, under multiple administrations of both parties, hasn’t worked and, in some respects, has worsened the situation. They contend it would be wise to go even further than Mr. Trump or Mr. Biden and fundamentally alter America’s role in the region for good.

“Pushing for change will be an uphill battle, but the need has never been clearer. After decades of projecting force into the region without a coherent strategy, the United States has spent trillions of dollars but failed to produce regional stability or advance U.S. interests,” Jon Hoffman, a foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute, wrote in a recent piece for Foreign Policy magazine.

“The human and material costs of Washington’s Middle East policy have been immense,” he wrote. “What will billions more in military aid and an expansive U.S. presence in the Middle East accomplish in the years to come? History suggests that it will produce continued damage to U.S. interests and regional stability.”