New poll shows upcoming New York special election as a squeaker to replace Santos

A new poll of New York voters in the state’s upcoming 3rd Congressional District special election shows a neck-and-neck contest to replace disgraced former Rep. George Santos.

An Emerson College Polling/PIX11 survey found that 45% of voters in the Long Island/Queens district support Democrat Tom Suozzi, and 42% support Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip. 

Mr. Suozzi, a former House lawmaker who previously represented the district for three terms before losing the Democratic gubernatorial primary to Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2022, has an edge within the survey’s margin of error.

In the poll, 5% of respondents said they plan to vote for someone else, and 9% are undecided ahead of the Feb. 13 special election. Mr. Santos, who faces a variety of fraud allegations, was expelled from Congress in December. 

Many see the tight race as pivotal because Republicans have only a 220-213 majority in the lower chamber. Democrats are dumping massive amounts of money into this swing district to bring them one seat closer to helping them recapture the majority. 

Republicans told The Washington Times they were encouraged by the poll, given the name recognition that Mr. Suozzi already enjoyed in the district and the outside money by Democrats being poured into the race.

Queens GOP County Chairman Anthony Nunziato told The Times that people in the district question why Mr. Suozzi wants his old job back after previously abandoning the post to run for higher office. 

“The guy ran for governor twice. He only got into the low 20% when he ran for governor. And now he says, ’I can’t get a job as a governor. So, I guess I got to go back for that seat just to get a job,’” Mr. Nunziato said. “It’s obvious, he doesn’t want to do it, because he left it. … If he wants to get a job, I’m sure Pizza Hut has something open, but he’s not qualified to go back to Congress.”

The GOP is also accusing Mr. Suozzi of being an advocate of illegal immigration, an issue Republicans are campaigning hard on in this special election. 

“He’s against the police. He’s against ICE. He’s the first one with [former Gov. Andrew] Cuomo to throw ICE out of Long Island. He was saying that they’re a bunch of corrupt police that were just trying to get people out of the country,” Mr. Nunziato said, using the acronym for Immigration and Customs Enforcement. 

Democrats, however, slammed Ms. Pilip for “ducking debates” and “dodging questions.”

“Republican candidate Mazi Pilip has kept her schedule largely under wraps, appearing at events with party officials, avoiding her opponent, and undecided voters on the campaign trail,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Ellie Dougherty said.

The poll also shows that Mr. Suozzi leads Ms. Pilip, a Nassau County legislator, among voters who have a college degree by 48% to 44%, and with who have a postgraduate degree, 53% to 33%.

Ms. Pilip leads Mr. Suozzi among voters whose highest level of education is a high school diploma, 53% to 30%. 

The Democratic former congressman leads his GOP opponent among voters ages 18 to 39, 53% to 34%; among male voters, 45% to 43%, and among female voters, 45% to 41%.

Ms. Pilip, however, has the advantage among the district’s White voters, 49% to 40%, and among Hispanic voters, 44% to 33%. 

Meanwhile, Mr. Suozzi leads among the district’s large population of Asian voters, 60% to 25%. 

The survey also asked about the candidates’ favorability and name familiarity — 50% hold a favorable view of Mr. Suozzi, 43% have an unfavorable view of him, and 7% have not heard of him.

Ms. Pilip had a favorability rating of 44%, while 36% had an unfavorable view of her, and 21% were not familiar with her. 

The survey notes that 16% of voters in the district still view Mr. Santos favorably, while 83% have an unfavorable view of him. Mr. Santos, a Republican, faces federal fraud and wire charges.

Lawmakers from both parties last month voted 311-114 to expel Mr. Santos, passing the two-thirds threshold required. 

The poll was conducted Jan. 13-15. The sample consisted of 975 registered voters, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error, of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.