KYIV, Ukraine — Shell-shocked but defiant residents don’t need satellite photos or top-secret intelligence reports to sense that Russia is obtaining outside help in a stalemated war that is soon to pass its two-year mark.
As political infighting among Ukraine’s Western allies delays aid to the embattled country, deliveries of North Korean and Iranian weapons have bolstered Russia’s arsenal in recent weeks.
On Jan. 2, Ukrainians awoke again to the sound of explosions overhead as a barrage of Russian ballistic missiles and kamikaze drones struck multiple cities.
“The air-raid alert woke me up at around 6 in the morning, and I checked my phone to find out what was going on,” said Mariika Lobyntseva, an artist and resident of Kyiv. “I saw that a bunch of [Russian] planes had taken off, and I said to myself, ‘It’s going to be a big attack.’ It had been quiet for a while, so the number of planes taking off was pretty suspicious.”
Since then, the warning sirens have sounded in major Ukrainian cities virtually every day. Russia fired two S-300 missiles at Kharkiv on Wednesday, hitting apartment buildings and a medical center and injuring 17 people, The Associated Press reported.
Deliveries of North Korean missiles and Iranian drones have bolstered Russia’s once-threadbare arsenals. Last week, the European Union and the Biden administration denounced North Korea “in the strongest possible terms” in a communique signed by nearly 50 countries.
“The transfer of these weapons increases the suffering of the Ukrainian people, supports Russia’s war of aggression and undermines the global non-proliferation regime,” the statement read in part.
The signatories explicitly accused Russia of using North Korean ballistic missiles on two specific occasions, including the one Ms. Lobyntseva witnessed on Jan. 2.
Ms. Lobyntseva reached out to relatives in her native Odesa. They told her that a series of blasts had just rocked the southern city, Ukraine’s third most populous and its largest port on the Black Sea.
“Not long after that, they sent a bunch of missiles, cruise and ballistic,” she said. “I heard about four or five explosions, and the last ones were very, very powerful. The building was shaking.”
A barrage of drones and missiles targeting cities and civilian infrastructure across Ukraine the previous week signaled the beginning of the long-anticipated Russian winter bombing campaign. In total, Russian forces fired 122 missiles and dozens of drones on Dec. 29, the largest such attack of the war so far. At least 30 civilians were killed, and another 144 were wounded.
Ukrainian authorities had been preparing for several weeks for a renewed Russian bombing campaign. Last winter, Moscow targeted Ukraine’s energy grid in an effort to undermine Ukrainian morale and paralyze the country’s struggling economy. By winter’s end, the strikes had shut down 50% of Ukraine’s energy sector and caused an estimated $8.8 billion in damages, yet Ukrainians soldiered on.
“This year’s campaign of missile strikes differs from last year’s only in that there have been more attacks on industrial and manufacturing facilities,” said Oleksandr Musiyenko, a military analyst and head of the Center for Military Legal Research, a local think tank. “Its goals are to terrorize the civilian population and strike industrial and defense facilities. In this way, Russia seeks to demoralize Ukrainians and cause economic losses and damage, as well as weaken their defense capabilities and resilience.”
Stopping the Kinzhal
Mr. Musiyenko said Russia is using more of the much-touted hypersonic Kinzhal, or “Dagger,” missiles than last year. First disclosed in 2018 by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the fleet’s air-launched ballistic missile has a reported top speed of Mach 10. President Biden has said it is “almost impossible to stop.”
“As you all know, it’s a consequential weapon but with the same warhead on it as any other launched missile,” Mr. Biden said after the destruction of a Ukrainian weapons depot in March 2022. He said it was the only missile in the Russian arsenal at the time that could “get through” Ukraine’s air defenses with “absolute certainty.”
Western partners’ transfer of sophisticated air defense systems to Ukraine — notably, the American Patriot air defense batteries — has challenged the Kinzhal’s supposed infallibility.
On Jan. 2, Ukrainian authorities said they had shot down all 10 Russian-launched Khinzhals as part of an early-morning attack across the country. Ms. Lobyntseva, like many other battle-hardened Kyiv residents, now places her faith in the air defense systems that allies supplied to Ukraine.
“The whole morning, I had this anxious feeling of not knowing what is going on, how many missiles they sent,” she said. “I’m pretty confident about the air defenses in Kyiv, but still, seeing pictures of strikes in Dnipro, where I have friends, it impacts you.”
A few days after the attack, photos published by Ukraine’s State Emergency Service showed Ukrainian military engineers removing parts of a Kinzhal’s neutralized warhead that had been shot down over the capital.
“Ukraine’s air defense systems are working well, and the Patriot system has proven particularly effective in shooting down ballistic missiles,” Mr. Musiyenko said. Still, he warned that Ukraine lacked the air defense systems and the ammunition to withstand a sustained Russian campaign.
Ukraine badly needs additional air defense systems such as Patriot, SAMP/T, NASAMS and a large stockpile of missiles. During a renewed attack on Jan. 7, Kyiv’s defense forces were able to shoot down only 18 of the 59 missiles launched, stoking fears that Russian drones and missiles were overwhelming Ukraine’s air defense systems.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been pushing for more Western support. He appeared in person at the global summit in Davos to request more aid, and NATO ministers are meeting in Brussels this week to coordinate military strategy for the coming year.
“Yes, we are tired” from fighting Russia, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters in Davos on Wednesday, but “no matter how tired or exhausted we will be, we will keep defending our country.”
Ukraine’s priority this year is air power, Mr. Kuleba said, “because the one who controls the skies will define when and how the war will end.”
Meanwhile, Mr. Musiyenko said, Russia can produce 100 to 120 cruise missiles per month and has mobilized to increase the production of domestic weaponized drones. Among them is the Lancet loitering munition, which the British Defense Ministry has described as “one of the most effective new capabilities” Russia has fielded in Ukraine.
A July report broadcast on Russian television showcased a massive new facility where hundreds of the weapons were being manufactured and claimed production of the UAV was being “tripled.”
“Just like last year, Ukrainian population centers and civil infrastructures remain in Russia’s crosshairs,” Mr. Musiyenko said.
• Guillaume Ptak can be reached at gptak@washingtontimes.com.
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