INDIANOLA, Iowa — Republicans were hoping the subzero temperatures in Iowa froze out the most sweltering cases of Trump derangement syndrome at the caucuses Monday night.
Republicans had their antennae up for potential shenanigans, and a lingering concern revolved around a concerted effort by anti-Trumpers to flood the caucuses and tilt the results.
“We have to allow that,” said Kelley Koch, chair of the Dallas County Republican Party.
Indeed, party rules allow any eligible voter to register or switch their party affiliation on caucus night.
Analysts said concerns about crossover voting tend to be inflated.
This year, the prospect of independents and other non-Republicans voting in the caucuses would most likely benefit Nikki Haley, a former ambassador to the United Nations.
Polls show Ms. Haley running a distant second behind Mr. Trump thanks to the support of a mix of moderate Republicans, independents and Democrats.
“I know there are some good people out there. I know a few of them, my Democrat friends, not many that are fed up with Joe Biden, and they are going to come and we want to welcome them,” Ms. Koch said. “But the fraudulent people, the code word is ‘Be a Republican for a Day.’
“That kind of crap makes me sick,” she said. “You know how hard we work for this?”
Ms. Koch shared a screenshot of a post from the Polk County Democrats website from a woman who said, “I have registered Republican and will attend their caucuses in an effort to derail T.
“I will do everything legally in my power to prevent a second T presidency,” she wrote. “I plan to caucus for whoever is in second place no matter how distasteful. BTW you can reregister at the door.”
Ms. Koch said caucus leaders would be on “hyper alert” to ensure the people who participated complied fully with the party rules. That included having a valid ID and proof of residence.
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“I want them to make them register when it is 40 below zero,” she said in jest. “See if they are legit, right?”
The final pre-caucus NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showed Ms. Haley with 20% of Republican support, running second behind Mr. Trump, who had 48%.
The poll also found that half of Ms. Haley’s supporters were independents and crossover Democrats, and 43% of Ms. Haley’s supporters said they would vote for President Biden over Mr. Trump.
The survey highlighted how Ms. Haley’s supporters were less enthusiastic than those backing Mr. Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
That raised questions about whether the Democrats and independents supporting Ms. Haley would be motivated to turn out amid temperatures well below zero.
Mike Schultz, a Trump caucus captain in Waukee, said he was convinced some Democrats were playing in the Republican caucuses but predicted most wouldn’t brave the weather.
“I expect some of it, but we talk about whether there will be a poor turnout due to cold weather, and I think all of those people will stay home in droves,” said Mr. Schultz, 74. “They are not motivated as much, so I think the cold weather will help us with that.”
The biggest questions heading into the caucuses were the size of Mr. Trump’s margin of victory and whether Ms. Haley or Mr. DeSantis would win the battle for second place.
Mr. DeSantis kept a busy schedule Monday. He held three campaign events and made the case in television interviews that he would be stronger than Ms. Haley in a head-to-head showdown with Mr. Trump.
“Ultimately, you know, Nikki Haley could not possibly beat Donald Trump. She doesn’t have enough support amongst core conservatives,” Mr. DeSantis said on CNN.
Ms. Haley, who visited with patrons at a diner and held a telephone town hall, had a different take.
“We know that momentum that we take from Iowa is going to go into New Hampshire,” she said on Fox Business Network’s “Cavuto: Coast to Coast.” “It’s going to get even stronger in South Carolina until we finish this. This will be a two-person race with me and Donald Trump.”
Mr. Trump called caucus captains and visited a caucus site in Des Moines.
He got a boost from an army of surrogates that headlined a pair of events for him in different parts of the state.
The wild card was the weather. The National Weather Service warned of life-threatening temperatures with wind chills as low as 35 degrees below zero in the Des Moines area.
The caucuses marked the culmination of months of candidates crisscrossing the state to rub shoulders with voters inside restaurants and living rooms.
Following tradition, it served as the official start of the nomination race and set the stage for the first-in-the-nation primary next week in New Hampshire.
Mr. Trump, Mr. Haley and Mr. DeSantis plan to be there Tuesday.
Mr. DeSantis, however, planned to stop first in South Carolina, signaling that he thinks the state, which is No. 4 after Nevada on the Republican calendar, is more fertile political ground for his message.
The New Hampshire race has been polling tighter than Iowa. Since late September, Ms. Haley has cut Mr. Trump’s 30-point lead in half.
The consensus is that if Ms. Haley has any chance of upsetting Mr. Trump, she needs to do it in New Hampshire.
She is the most likely beneficiary of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s decision to bow out of the race. Mr. Christie’s support was composed of independents, moderates and left-leaning voters.
The lack of a competitive Democratic primary also could open the door for crossover voters for Ms. Haley in New Hampshire, which has an open primary.
The Trump team, however, is confident that Ms. Haley is more of a media manifestation than a serious threat.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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