Speaker Johnson is not the problem with our budgetary crisis

OPINION:

A group of conservative House members are furious with Speaker Mike Johnson. The Louisiana Republican struck a “top-line agreement” with Democratic leaders last week, and some on Capitol Hill feel betrayed by the spending deal.

Calling the agreement Mr. Johnson reached with Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer and President Biden a “deal” is a bit of an overstatement. It’s an outline of a framework of a plan for a deal. We know how much the big three have agreed to spend but precious little about how it will be spent.

It’s a problem, and it’s not one that can be easily solved.

The congressional budgetary process is irrevocably broken, but the GOP has imposed a notable tweak to make the situation less bad than it would otherwise be. A provision from Rep. Thomas Massie, Kentucky Republican, forces a 1% across-the-board cut in spending if a deal can’t be worked out.

The nation’s $34 trillion debt is growing faster than ever, and that’s the fundamental problem. When Democrats held both chambers, Congress embraced Mr. Biden’s unhinged spending demands coming out of an 18-month lockdown of the U.S. economy.

Now the congressional irreconcilable caucus wants to do something about it. Its members also want to use the threat of a government shutdown to address the virtually open border, the rising crime rate and the shattering of domestic energy production. Shutdown is the only leverage they have against the White House.

While they’re right on the policy, the irreconcilables appear to have learned nothing from the past 40 years. Republicans are always blamed for shutdowns, regardless of who runs Congress or the White House at the time. In the unlikely event a shutdown-producing standoff occurred between a Democratic president and a Democratic-controlled Congress, the pundit class would still find a way to blame the supposedly dire situation on the GOP.

For a shutdown to assist those in Congress eager to rein in profligate colleagues, the table has to be set correctly. Americans need to be let in on the fact it’s “big spending Biden” who drove the fiscal train off the rails. More importantly, they need to buy the argument.

Instead of making that case to the public, the House irreconcilables spent nearly all of October ousting Kevin McCarthy as speaker and fumbling for a replacement. The only thing the public saw was an embarrassing spectacle that diminished what confidence it had in leaving the GOP in charge.

Escape from our current economic crisis can come only from a period of prolonged, robust growth like that the nation experienced after the Reagan tax cuts took effect in the 1980s. Such growth is possible only if voters send Mr. Biden packing in November.

With that in mind, the sensible play is for Mr. Johnson to move forward under the top-line agreement’s parameters and use what little leverage the GOP has in the House and Senate to push spending as far into the out years as possible.

The top-line number would remain high, pleasing Democrats, but the hope would be to win back the Senate and the White House in November so those funds could be clawed back before they are spent.

Thus, the spending crisis can’t be solved in the long run without winning elections, and winning appears to be what Mr. Johnson has in mind.