WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — The Iowans who brave the cold to turn out for the caucuses Monday will be the first to pick sides in the debate over whether Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley is the strongest alternative to former President Donald Trump.
That is perhaps the most intriguing storyline in Iowa where every indication is that Mr. Trump will run away with the race and could score a record-breaking caucus win.
That fact was not lost on Mr. DeSantis, the governor of Florida, or Ms. Haley, a former U.S. ambassador to the U.N., as they battled for silver in the final hours of campaigning.
“Ultimately, you know, Nikki Haley could not possibly beat Donald Trump, she doesn’t have enough support amongst core conservatives,” Mr. DeSantis said on CNN.
Ms Haley countered that by the time the dust settles, “This will be a two-person race with me and Donald Trump.”
Mr. DeSantis has more riding on a respectable second-place finish. Ms. Haley focused her run on New Hampshire, where she is up in the polls, but has enjoyed an unexpected rise in Iowa.
The DeSantis campaign and supportive super PACs have devoted massive amounts of time and resources to the state. The belief was that Mr. DeSantis’ impressive record of legislative accomplishments and electoral success in Florida would resonate with conservative caucusgoers, including the all-important evangelical Christians.
It helped him win the endorsement of Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds as well as prominent Christian activist Bob Vander Plaats.
Yet, he struggled to pull traditional conservatives away from Mr. Trump — partly because of his stiff, almost wooden mannerisms.
“If you look at his policies, he has been a very good governor, but he doesn’t seem like a real people person,” said Mark Hanson, a DeSantis supporter. “He doesn’t seem as natural, doesn’t have the charisma.”
The pro-Haley SFA super PAC has poked at that potential liability in various campaign ads, including one that closes with slow-motion debate footage of a stone-faced DeSantis licking his lips.
In another ad, Mr. DeSantis is painted as a Trump wannabe.
“America needs strength. Not a suck-up,” the female narrator says.
The pro-DeSantis super PAC is running an ad that casts him as a left-wing battering ram and warns that Mr. Trump is too distracted to be president and Ms. Haley is full of “empty promises.”
The Never Back Down super PAC backing Mr. DeSantis knocked on 935,000 doors in Iowa and collected 40,000 commitments to caucus for him.
The final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll showed Mr. Trump at 48% followed by Ms. Haley at 20% and Mr. DeSantis at 16%.
It was another sign that Ms. Haley is inching up and Mr. DeSantis is sliding down.
But Mr. Vander Plaats threw cold water on the idea Ms. Haley would finish second. He said the DeSantis ground operation is “bar none” the best in the state and that will shine through at the caucuses.
“I believe you are going to have one candidate who is going to beat expectation: that is going to be Ron DeSantis, and I believe he does that here, it gives him momentum going forward,” Mr. Vander Plaats said.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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