Ruling DPP, the party with strongest stance against China, easily wins Taiwan election

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TAIPEI, Taiwan – Taiwan’s ruling party, which has advocated for a stronger stance than the opposition against China, easily won a third consecutive presidential term in Saturday’s closely watched vote — a historic first for the island and a clear rebuke for the mainland.

In a three-way race, the liberal Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP, won 40% of the vote, exceeding poll expectations of 36%. Voter turnout was a healthy 71.8%.

The presidency passes to 64-year-old Vice President Lai Ching-te, a physician also known as William Lai, from outgoing President Tsai In-wen, who is constitutionally restricted from seeking a third term. He takes office on May 20.

 “We are telling the international community that between democracy and authoritarianism, we will stand on the side of democracy,” Mr. Lai said in his victory speech. “Taiwan will continue to walk side by side with democracies around the world.”

 Mr. Lai said he had “an important responsibility” to “maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait” under principles of “dignity and parity.”

“Frozen garlic!” chanted thousands of jubilant supporters outside his press conference. The term in Chinese sounds the same as “election victory.”

Though he hoped to “confidently pursue exchanges and cooperation” with China, the president-elect warned: “We are also determined to safeguard Taiwan from continued threats and intimidation from China,” adding, “We hope China will recognize the new situation, and understand that only peace benefits both sides.”

The result marks the first time a single party has led Taiwan for three consecutive four-year presidential terms since the first open presidential elections in 1996.

While Mr. Lai won the presidency, the DPP lost its majority in the Legislative Yuan, giving more conservative parties added leverage in the political bargaining that lies ahead.  

“The elections have told us people expect an effective government as well as strong checks and balances,” Mr. Lai said. “We fully respect these opinions.”

Saturday’s results came in fast. Main opposition candidate Hou Ye-in, 66, of the Kuomintang, or Nationalist, Party conceded at 8 p.m., just four hours after polls closed at 4 p.m.

“I’ve let everybody down,” he told supporters. “I would like to express thousands of apologies.”

The KMT won 33% of the votes.

While the divided opposition parties that support re-starting frozen ties with the mainland won a majority of the overall vote, Saturday’s result will almost certainly not be welcomed by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Beijing has diplomatically isolated Taiwan and, in recent years, has upped a campaign of military intimidation across the Taiwan Strait.

Mr. Lai is arguably the staunchest anti-China figure to head the DPP, which itself takes the hardest line against China among Taiwan’s three main parties. Direct communications between Taipei and Beijing have effectively ended since Ms. Tsai first took power in 2016.

Chen Binhua, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, sent a warning to Taiwanese voters two days before the vote, a warning that clearly went unheeded.

“I sincerely hope the majority of Taiwan compatriots recognize the extreme harm of the DPP’s ‘Taiwan independence’ line and the extreme danger of [Mr. Lai’s] triggering of cross-Strait confrontation and conflict, and to make the right choice at the crossroads of cross-Strait relations,” he said in a statement.

The Taiwanese campaign was watched worldwide, given the centrality of the island’s democracy to the fierce competition between the world’s leading economic and military powers, the United States and China.

The 2024 vote is also the first presidential election Taiwan has held since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. That shook the rule-based international order, sparking fears that China might follow Russia’s lead by acting on its longstanding vow to take over Taiwan. 

Some suggested Saturday’s vote was a plebiscite on domestic issues such as housing shortages, power cuts and stagnant wages. But in talks with voters at the polls in the capital, Taipei, China relations were by far the standout issue.

Eyes on Taiwan, eyes on China

Washington and Beijing were both clearly bracing for the fallout from the election long before the results were tabulated.

“The United States has full confidence in Taiwan’s democratic processes, and there is strong bipartisan support for its free and fair elections,” a senior U.S. administration official said in a White House briefing on Jan. 11. “Taiwan is a model for democracy not only in the region but also globally.  We oppose any outside interference or influence in Taiwan’s elections.” 

There was no immediate official reaction from Beijing to Saturday’s results, but China considers Taiwan a breakaway province and Mr. Xi has made unification a central goal of his presidency. Many Taiwanese see themselves as culturally Chinese but argue their vibrant system of democratic governance is at odds with Chinese communism.

With Beijing having cracked down in recent years on pro-democracy forces in Hong Kong, Taiwan is a Chinese-speaking democratic bulwark in the region. The election comes at a particularly fraught time in the region.

Militarily, there are loudly voiced concerns in the United States and quieter voices in Japan that China may invade Taiwan. Economically, the island is central to global supply chains, being the leading producer of advanced non-memory semiconductors.

While many Western voters express distrust in governments and democratic processes, in Taiwan, which held its first democratic presidential election in 1996, attachment to the ballot box is strong.

Three voters interviewed across Taipei Saturday said they had flown into the island – which does not allow overseas ballots – to vote. Political discussions outside voting stations were intense but peaceful.

Voters’ voices

Some citizens were concerned about domestic affairs.

Kimi Pan, a 35-year-old banker who voted for the Taiwan Progressive Party, or TPP, which came in third in the vote with 26%, cited the cost of living as a key issue: “Even with my salary, I can’t afford to buy a house here,” she said.

“The No. 1 issue is the question of corruption,” said Alun Huang, a 36-year-old visiting Taipei’s iconic Longshan Temple to pray to the Bodhisattva of Peace and who had also voted for the TPP.

In the working-class district of Sanchong, Hong Li-yuan, who voted for the KMT, expressed dissatisfaction with the Tsai administration’s handling of COVID and last year’s nationwide egg shortage. Regarding China relations, he said simply, “I am for the status quo.”

Others, however, talked up China’s fears.

“The No. 1 issues are democracy and freedom!” said Chen Bin-kuo, 57. “I don’t feel like there is a [cross-Strait] crisis now, but a lot of forces are trying to stir up a crisis.”

In a voting station in Taipei’s prosperous Zhongshan District, two citizens had flown home to vote. Why go to such trouble?

“Because I love Taiwan! I want to keep Taiwan free!” said May Yeh, a 70-something Taiwanese-American resident of  Silicon Valley. “The KMT always says the U.S. will not help us, … but I think either Trump or Biden would help Taiwan – at least I hope so. I pay a lot of taxes!”

She voted for the DPP, but it was also clear KMT voters hold different views of how to handle Taiwan’s giant and increasingly aggressive neighbor across the Taiwan Strait.

“I hope there will be more communications between Taiwan and China,” said Chuang Hsuan-gung, 68, who was buying buns at a street stall. He said ties with Beijing were his top issue and blamed Taipei, not Beijing, for dismal cross-Strait relations.

Cultural and national identity were key factors in the campaign, he said: “A lot of young people have been exposed to global culture, but people of my generation identify more with China.”

Lien Wie-chieh, 70, overhearing Mr. Chuang’s comments, forcefully disagreed.

“Look at Americans: Your culture came from all over the world,” Mr. Lien said. “Chinese culture has influenced me, but that does not mean I am Chinese!”

He added, “China and Taiwan are two separate countries.”

Even voters with little interest in geopolitics suggested that Beijing’s pressure tactics had backfired.

“I sometimes feel p——d off when [Mr. Xi] talks his BS,” said Ms. Pan, who had flown in from Japan to vote.