OPINION:
A version of this story appeared in the On Background newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive On Background delivered directly to your inbox each Friday.
Watching the two leading candidates for president nurse their resentments and fight over the scraps of memories can be entertaining, but it would be more helpful if one or both of them started to talk seriously and specifically about their plans to govern in 2025.
Those plans, if they exist, will be very important given the tax, spending and debt train wreck heading our way right after the next president is inaugurated.
Because whoever wins the presidential election is going to be confronted with a number of immediate challenges — and opportunities — on taxes and spending, irrespective of whether they “defended democracy” or “made America great again.”
First, it is likely that the debt ceiling will be reached in the beginning of 2025. Increases in the debt ceiling are always emotionally and politically fraught, and that will be especially true at the beginning of a new Congress and a new presidential term.
In addition, numerous provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 — President Donald Trump’s signature accomplishment — are set to expire in 2025. Extending them would not be cheap. The provisions are estimated to reduce federal revenue by $3.4 trillion over 10 years. There’s no telling how, or whether, the budgetary effects of those tax provisions will be addressed.
There is also no telling what other tax provisions will creep into the conversation and need to be accounted for the budget. An expansion of the child tax credit is gaining traction, as it should. The expansion would reduce federal revenue by $1.6 trillion over 10 years.
The size and scope of the always-with-us deduction for state and local taxes is likely to be debated. The score could range from zero to $250 billion, depending on the contours of the deduction.
Those are just three expensive examples among dozens.
Finally, Congress and the newly elected president are likely to face the need to finish the appropriations for fiscal 2025.
As you almost certainly know, the current Congress is still working to finish appropriations for fiscal 2024, which commenced almost four months ago. It seems unlikely that this Congress will be able to fund the government for 2024 and then immediately pivot and go through the same exercise for 2025 in a timely manner, especially given that those in Congress typically put their pencils down early in an election year.
Those three related challenges will absorb pretty much all of the mind of the new president (or the returning president) for the first three-quarters of 2025.
Despite that, neither of the likely nominees has seen fit to let voters know what their plans might be for this tax, debt and spending train wreck. Nor has anyone in the traveling road show that is the media seen fit to ask any questions about it.
Make no mistake: It doesn’t matter who wins which offices.
Probably the most predictable outcome of the election is that Republicans are going to take control of the Senate, so let’s just take that as a given. It also seems likely that whoever wins the presidency will win the House, so let’s take that as a given. So, if President Biden wins, the Democrats would control the House, and the Republicans control the Senate.
Such a scenario would mean more messiness and friction, but it would not change what needs to be done: The debt ceiling, fiscal 2025 appropriations and the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will need to be immediately addressed.
If Mr. Trump wins, and the Republicans control both the House and Senate, the debt ceiling, fiscal 2025 appropriations and the expiring provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act would need to be immediately addressed.
If Mr. Trump is elected, the Senate would also need to confirm a new batch of Cabinet and sub-Cabinet nominees in 2025. That would require organization and discipline on the part of the new administration and place a premium on planning, preparation and organization, especially in the selection of personnel.
While experience suggests that there would be a pretty good amount of confusion and mayhem at the top of a second Trump administration, it is possible that we would all be pleasantly surprised.
What we know for sure is that neither candidate is talking about how he intends to address the tax, debt and spending train wreck that is heading our way in early 2025. That would lead one to conclude that neither has a coherent plan.
That’s a problem.
• Michael McKenna is a contributing editor to The Washington Times and co-host of the podcast “The Unregulated.”
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