URBANDALE, Iowa — Former President Donald Trump’s campaign is predicting Nikki Haley will finish second here in the Iowa caucuses next week, putting Gov. Ron DeSantis’ campaign on death watch.
If it all plays out as they anticipate, that will set up a media-hyped clash in New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary where Ms. Haley’s hopes of pulling off the upset will hinge on a massive turnout from independent voters.
Buoyed by polls showing Mr. Trump is well ahead in lead-off contests of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita said he is “very confident” about the boss’s path to victory in the nomination battle.
“Right now President Trump is winning in all four of these states, never before has a non-incumbent running for office won New Hampshire and Iowa,” Mr. LaCivita told The Washington Times on the sidelines of a recent campaign event. “That, obviously, is our campaign’s goal.”
“Our biggest, quite frankly, opponent right now is complacency,” he said.
Indeed, the Trump campaign is looking to avoid a repeat of eight years ago when Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas won the Iowa caucuses after gaining steam over the final months of campaigning.
SEE ALSO: Trump confidently sizes up remaining GOP field before Monday’s Iowa caucuses
The dynamic has changed dramatically for 2024.
Running as a quasi-incumbent, Mr. Trump is gobbling up support from key parts of Iowa’s electorate — perhaps most importantly from evangelical and born-again Christians.
Those voters powered Mr. Cruz’s 2016 victory, and they have grown to trust Mr. Trump more over the years despite his various legal challenges, multiple marriages and tabloid-fodder lifestyle.
Plus, Mr. Trump has a deeper bench of loyal surrogates to call upon to motivate voters to caucus for him.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson, and his son Donald Trump, Jr. have been crisscrossing the state in recent days.
“They are going after Trump because they understand Trump is the only guy … who is not beholden to the puppet masters,” Donald Trump Jr. recently told supporters. “It is not just the Democrats, it is also the Republicans.”
SEE ALSO: Chris Christie’s botched farewell aging well with Trump supporters
Mr. Trump also is working to keep people engaged.
He headlined a Fox News town hall Wednesday that drew nearly 3 million more viewers than a debate showdown between Mr. DeSantis and Ms. Haley that aired simultaneously on CNN.
Mr. LaCivita said the split-screen underscored the current state of affairs in Iowa where Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis and their allies have been “beating the living hell out of each other.”
“You got the two little kids smacking each other for attention,” Mr. LaCivita said, contrasting it with the fact Mr. Trump is targeting President Biden in television ads.
Mr. Trump plans to headline a series of campaign stops before Monday’s caucuses in Iowa. He is polling 36 points ahead of Ms. Haley, who recently leapfrogged Mr. DeSantis into second place.
Seeking to temper expectations, Mr. LaCivita said no one has won the Iowa caucuses by more than 12 points.
At the same time, though, he is bullish about how the race here will play out, predicting, “Nikki, probably, will finish second.”
“Of course, that will play into more of a national media narrative, to set up a bigger campaign in in in New Hampshire, where you know, anyone, independents, can actually vote in the primary,” he said.
Undeclared voters — the name for independents in New Hampshire — make up 39% of the state’s electorate, according to voter registration data from the secretary of state’s office.
The remaining 60% of voters are split almost evenly between the two major parties.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie envisioned a path to victory that relied on cobbling together a coalition of those independent voters and anti-Trump Republicans.
That effort failed, and he pulled out of the race Wednesday, opening the door for his supporters to give Ms. Haley, Mr. DeSantis and others another look.
The Trump campaign has downplayed the impact of Mr. Christie’s demise. They insist Ms. Haley still faces a major “math” problem in New Hampshire’s Jan. 23 primary.
By Mr. LaCivita’s calculations, Ms. Haley needs a record-setting number of independents — more than half of the GOP primary electorate — to turn out to have a chance of winning.
“That’s just not going to happen in a Republican primary with Donald Trump on the ballot,” he said.
From there, he said, things get stickier for Ms. Haley.
Mr. LaCivita said she is not playing in Nevada and “then you know, we go to South Carolina where they know her the best and they like her the least.”
“So we’re pretty confident,” he said.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.