Trump will be the Republican nominee in 2024

OPINION:

Former President Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee in 2024. If President Biden is the nominee for the Democrats, the 45th president will become the 47th president of the United States.

The caucuses are being held next week in Iowa. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and his team have done all the right things to win. He has the support of Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (who may be the best governor in the nation). He has the support of conservative leaders such as Family Leader CEO Bob Vander Plaats and radio host Steve Deace. He campaigned in all 99 counties, and his super PAC has knocked on 812,000 doors.

These are the things that typically lead to victory. Instead, Iowa may be Mr. DeSantis’ last stand.

More than half of those polled in the recent Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll are with Mr. Trump. Mr. DeSantis is 32 percentage points behind the front-runner. Attacks that might have tanked other candidates in the past are making the former president stronger in the minds of caucus and primary voters. Mr. Trump will win the Iowa caucuses, and he will win big.

On Jan. 23, voters in New Hampshire will cast their ballots. Mr. Trump leads Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador, with 39% of the vote compared with her 32%. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was at 12% (he has since dropped out of the race, on Wednesday), businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is at 8%, and Mr. DeSantis is at 5%.

Mrs. Haley’s support has gone up in the Granite State. Popular New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu’s endorsement along with strong ground-game support from Americans for Prosperity have contributed to her surge in the state.

One key factor is that the former ambassador’s support has risen dramatically with independent voters (technically undeclared in New Hampshire). According to a recent poll, her growth with moderates has increased 20 points.

If there is a place for her to win, New Hampshire is it, as the state is famously independent; moderate voters can have an impact. Her campaign reportedly raised $24 million in the last three months of 2023. That is more than in any other quarter of her presidential run. Much of that is being used in New Hampshire.

If half or more of Mr. Christie’s share in the latest polls goes to Mrs. Haley, the first-in-the-nation primary could be a nail-biter. Mr. Trump will likely win, but it will be close.

If Mrs. Haley wins, there is a steamroller headed her way in the coming caucuses and primaries. In the end, on Feb. 8, voters will have their say in Nevada, where Mr. Trump has a significant advantage. Then, it is on to South Carolina.

A new Emerson College poll shows that Mr. Trump has a 29-point lead at 54% versus 25% for Mrs. Haley. If that number holds, the race is over: Mr. Trump wins the nomination.

An anchor asked me last week after town hall meetings on CNN with Mr. DeSantis and Mrs. Haley why former Mr. Trump is likely to win the GOP nomination. I noted that both candidates had strong performances and interacted well with voters. Still, neither of them has been able to deliver a knockout blow against the former president.

Mr. DeSantis spoke of how he and Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds had turned Florida and Iowa strongly Republican while candidates endorsed by Mr. Trump did not fare as well in 2022. Mrs. Haley spoke about the chaos surrounding the former president and that voters were ready to move on. In many ways, it was too little, too late.

Voters overall, but particularly Republican caucus and primary voters, want action. Most admire the job Mr. DeSantis has done as the leader of the state of Florida. Most appreciate the strong stands Mrs. Haley took as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

Mr. Trump may not talk or tweet the way many of these voters like, but he gets the job done. Too many voters have heard candidates say all the right things in their campaigns and then go to Washington and wimp out.

No one will accuse Mr. Trump of being weak.

Finally, most of these voters believe he can defeat Mr. Biden. A new poll in Michigan shows the former president defeating the current president by 8 points. If he wins by that much in my neighboring state, i could be a blowout in November.

A weak economy and an even weaker candidate are the albatross around the neck of liberals this cycle. Conversely, most voters want someone who is going to fight for them. Right now, that candidate appears to be Donald Trump. That is why he will win the nomination and likely the presidency.

• Scott Walker is president of Young America’s Foundation and served as the 45th governor of Wisconsin.